大型气田投资经济评价系统及实证研究

发布时间：2017-12-28 19:14

本文关键词：大型气田投资经济评价系统及实证研究　出处：《成都理工大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：作为世界三大传统能源之一的天然气因为其产量稳定、全球储量高、开采成本较为固定等一系列优点成为备受瞩目的能源生力军。但气田开发资金一次性投入大、技术密集、风险程度高,气田开发方案的合理性是气田开发最终经济效益的保障,进行气田开发经济评价可以提高气田开发技术水平、规避投资风险、提高投资效率等。气田开发投资经济评价在大型气田项目开发中举足轻重、至关重要,其担负的时代责任也更加凸显。通过对比国内外气田经济评价系统的发展,并具体分析我国当前气田开发投资项目评价系统,包括气田开发投资经济评价的基本思路、主要方法和参照指标,发现存在许多不完善之处,如只进行技术和投资的对比来比选方案并进行项目开发,或者在优选了方案后进行简单的财务评价,而导致不能为气田开发建设的可行性提供关键支撑。在对气田经济评价系统相关理论进行研究后,利用系统观和协调发展观指导进行大型气田经济评价系统的完善,完善的经济评价系统包括确定评价方法和参数选择、项目投资概算、经济效益分析(盈利能力和风险管控)以及社会经济和生态环境效益分析。本文重点在项目投资概算部分引入现代成本费用估算方法,在经济效益分析部分引入不确定性和风险评估,以及将社会和环境效益引入评价系统并构建社会经济及生态环境的评价指标体系。总结本文,主要获得如下成果：(1)构建了以系统论和协调发展理论为指导,以系统的协调综合评价为主要手段的研究框架。用可持续协调发展观揭示了能源消耗与经济发展之间的矛盾,从宏观的角度入手,探究了气田开发过程中经济评价系统的作用机理,为构建完善的分系统多层次的气田开发项目经济评价系统奠定了理论基础。(2)将系统层次分析的原理和方法引入到气田开发经济评价体系的研究中,经过研究国际先进油气田开发经济评价经验并对比我国研究存在的不足,完善与规范了现有的气田开发经济评价框架。完善后的气田开发投资经济评价理论框架中纳入了风险防范与环境效应等分析,具体包括四个层次：项目经济评价方法及参数取值；项目投资额估算；经济效益分析(盈利能力和风险管控)以及社会经济和生态环境效益分析。(3)在完善评价框架的基础上深入研究了重点的经济评价改进项目,包括引入现代成本管理估算方法对项目费用进行估算、在传统单纯盈利效益分析的基础上引入方案不确定性及风险分析、考虑气田经济与社会经济环境协调可持续发展并引入社会经济和生态环境效益分析。(4)对苏里格气田主力气藏的沉积相、亚相、微相、沉积演化规律进行研究。从沉积相划分标志着手,系统划分了苏里格气田的沉积微相类型,认为研究区山1-盒8段储层整体为处于潮湿沼泽背景下距物源有一定距离的砂质辫状河～三角洲沉积体系,主要划分出心滩、河道(分流河道)充填、泛滥平原和分流河道间洼地4种微相类型。(5)从储层岩石学、物性及孔隙结构特征等几方面研究苏里格气田的储层特征。通过分析认为,苏里格气田主力产层盒8段和山1段储层物性有一定的差别,储层孔隙类型多、物性较复杂。(6)根据苏里格气田某采气厂的开发规划确定生产规模及产能,通过分析产量逐年自然递减的规律,综合设计了三套具体的稳产开发方案：第一种方案,稳产期8年,递减期7年；第二种方案,稳产期10年,递减期6年；第三种方案,稳产期12年,递减期5年。(7)针对气田特点,对项目费用估算时采用现代成本管理估算方法,具体包括作业成本法、数据包络法和BP神经网络法等。并对苏里格气田某采气厂的成本费用进行了实证研究,并证明采用现代成本管理估算方法将使费用评估结果更为合理,进一步提高后续经济评价结果的可信度。(8)在进行方案效益分析时,在传统单纯盈利效益分析的基础上引入方案不确定性及风险分析。为了使评价结果所提供的信息更能为决策者所利用,本文引入了概率树和蒙特卡洛模拟方法,采用蒙特卡洛等计量经济学模型,利用历史资料数据的回归,从而尽可能地模拟出未来可能出现的所有结果的分布情况,利用概率论的思想来测算出未来不确定结果的期望值。本文对苏里格气田某采气厂进行实证研究,对可能的几种开采方案利用改进的方法分析,提出了评价结果及相关建议。(9)在完善经济评价体系时引入了社会经济和生态环境效益分析。本文通过构建天然气投资的社会经济和生态环境的评价指标体系对大型气田投资的社会经济与生态环境效益进行评价。并对苏里格气田某采气厂投资进行了生态环境效益的实证分析。
[Abstract]:As one of the three largest traditional energy sources in the world, natural gas has become a high-energy source of energy because of its advantages such as stable production, high global reserves and fixed cost. But the field development funds of large one-time investment, technology intensive, high degree of risk, rationality of field development plan is the ultimate guarantee of the economic benefits of gas field development, gas field development can improve the level of technology and economic evaluation of gas field development to avoid investment risks and improve investment efficiency. The investment economic evaluation of gas field development is very important and important in the development of large gas field projects, and its responsibility for the times is also more prominent. Through the development of domestic gas field economic evaluation system, and analyzes the evaluation system of China's current investment in gas field development project, the basic ideas, including investment and economic evaluation of gas field development methods and the main reference index, found that there are many imperfections, such as contrast only technology and investment to project selection and project development. Or simple financial evaluation in the optimization scheme, which provides the feasibility of gas field development and construction of the key support is not. Study on the theory of gas field economic evaluation system, improve the use of system concept and the concept of coordinated development guidance for large gas field economic evaluation system, evaluation methods and parameter selection, project investment budget and economic benefits include determining economic evaluation system (profitability and risk management) and the analysis of social economy and ecological environment benefit. This paper focuses on introducing the modern cost estimation method in the part of project investment budgetary estimate, introducing uncertainty and risk assessment into the economic benefit analysis part, introducing the social and environmental benefits into the evaluation system, and constructing the evaluation index system of social economy and ecological environment. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) a research framework based on system theory and coordinated development theory and systematic coordination and comprehensive evaluation is constructed. With the sustainable development view reveals the contradiction between energy consumption and economic development, from a macro point of view, to explore the mechanism of economic evaluation system in the process of gas field development, which laid a theoretical foundation for the economic evaluation system of gas field development project construction and improve the system of multi-level. (2) the principles and methods of system level analysis are introduced into the research of economic evaluation system of gas field development. After studying the experience of international advanced oil and gas field development and comparing the shortcomings of our research, we have perfected and standardized the existing economic evaluation framework for gas field development. The theory of economic evaluation of gas field development investment after the improvement into the analysis of risk prevention and environmental effects, including four levels: project economic evaluation method and parameters estimation; project investment; economic benefit analysis (profitability and risk management) and the analysis of social economy and ecological environment benefit. (3) based on perfecting the evaluation framework of the in-depth study on the economic evaluation of key improvement projects, including the introduction of modern cost management, analysis is introduced to estimate the uncertainties and risks, scheme based on traditional profit benefit analysis consider the field of economic and social economic environment sustainable development and the introduction of social economy and ecology environmental benefit analysis of the project cost. (4) the sedimentary facies, subfacies, microfacies and sedimentary evolution of the main gas reservoirs in the Sulige gas field are studied. From the division of sedimentary facies marks to the system is divided into sedimentary microfacies in Sulige gas field, it is concluded that the 1- box 8 reservoir as a whole in the sandy braided river to damp swamp background from the source of a certain distance from the delta sedimentary system, mainly divided into the heart of Beach River (distributary channel) filling flood plain and distributary channel between depression and 4 kinds of microfacies. (5) the reservoir characteristics of the Sulige gas field are studied from the aspects of reservoir petrology, physical properties and pore structure characteristics. According to the analysis, there are certain differences in the physical properties of the 8 and 1 reservoirs of the main producing layer of the Sulige gas field, and the reservoir has many pore types and complex physical properties. (6) determine the production scale and production capacity according to a gas plant in Sulige gas field development planning, through the analysis of the natural law of diminishing yield year by year, the comprehensive design of the three sets of concrete scheme of developing: the first scheme, the stable period of 8 years, declining period of 7 years; second, the stable production period of 10 years, declining stage 6 years; third, stable production period of 12 years, 5 years of decline. (7) according to the characteristics of gas field, the modern cost management estimation method is adopted for project cost estimation, including activity cost method, data envelopment analysis method and BP neural network method. The cost and cost of a gas production plant in Sulige gas field is empirically studied, and it is proved that the modern cost management estimation method will make the cost assessment result more reasonable and further improve the credibility of subsequent economic evaluation results. (8) the scheme uncertainty and risk analysis are introduced on the basis of the traditional profit benefit analysis. In order to make the evaluation results provide more information can be used by decision makers, this paper introduces probability tree and Monte Carlo simulation method, Monte Carlo, econometric model, using regression history data, so as to simulate the distribution of the possible future, using probability theory to measure calculate the expected future uncertainty value. This paper makes an empirical study of a gas production plant in Sulige gas field, and puts forward the evaluation results and related suggestions for the analysis of several possible mining plans using the improved method. (9) in the improvement of the economic evaluation system, the social and economic and ecological environmental benefits are introduced. In this paper, the evaluation of the social economy and the ecological environment of natural gas investment
【学位授予单位】：成都理工大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F406.7;F426.22

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