基于鲍莫尔非均衡增长模型扩展的中国服务业成本病研究

发布时间：2018-01-06 02:32

本文关键词：基于鲍莫尔非均衡增长模型扩展的中国服务业成本病研究　出处：《浙江工商大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：当今的世界经济,服务业在国民经济中的地位不断上升,这主要表现为服务业增加值比重以及就业份额的提升。在中国,服务业增加值比重从1978年的24.54%提升至2014年的48.11%,就业份额从1978年的12.18%上升至2014年的40.60%,服务业已成为中国经济中提升居民生活水平、吸纳农村劳动力的重要组成部分。然而中国的服务业发展水平较发达国家水平仍相对落后,产业结构不甚协调,这主要表现为:1.增加值比重偏低,发达国家服务业产值比重普遍在60%以上,如2013年日本服务业增加值比重为72.58%,美国为78.05%,英国为79.21%,德国为68.43%等;2.服务业劳动生产率偏低,1978年以来至今,第三产业与第二产业劳动生产率相对率始终小于1;3.服务业劳动力结构性供需失衡,即高技术人才供不应求。因此,研究中国服务业总体及其内部结构的演进趋势,从定性和定量两方面分析服务业发展存在的问题,具有一定的现实意义。本文从服务业结构入手,通过区分服务业的使用目标是最终需求还是中间需求,将服务业进一步划分为生产性服务业和生活性服务业两类。考虑到两类服务业的异质性,本文对鲍莫尔的非均衡增长模型进行了扩展分析,将服务业的结构问题引入模型,分别解释生产性服务业和生活性服务业就业份额的增长率与劳动生产率增长率、价格弹性、收入弹性等因素之间的联系。此外,本文采用1990-2013年中国服务业分行业数据及制造业数据对扩展后的模型进行了实证。结果表明,整体服务业中的"成本病"主要是由生活性服务业的"成本病"导致的。中国生活性服务业就业份额提高的代价是牺牲劳动生产率增长,且该部门需求价格弹性和需求收入弹性都很低,这就导致居民对生活性服务业的消费支出增加,从而容易引导"成本病"问题。而生产性服务业就业份额的增长并不会对整体经济生产率产生负面影响,发展生产性服务业为解决服务业成本病问题提供了一种可能。综上,服务业问题的分析研究不仅要从整体出发,更应结合内部结构进行剖析,分类讨论服务部门对整体经济的影响。
[Abstract]:In today's world economy, the status of service industry in the national economy is rising, which is mainly manifested in the proportion of value added services and enhance the share of employment. In China, the proportion of the added value increased from 24.54% in 1978 to 48.11% in 2014 service sector employment share increased from 12.18% in 2014 to 40.60% in 1978, the service industry has become improve the living standards of residents China economy, an important part of absorbing rural labor force. However, China service industry development level is the level of the developed countries is still relatively backward, the industrial structure is not harmonious, this is mainly as follows: 1. the proportion of the added value is low, the proportion of service industry in developed countries generally above 60%, as of 2013 the Japanese service industry the proportion of the added value of 72.58%, 78.05% in the United States, 79.21% in Britain, 68.43% in Germany; 2. service industry labor productivity is low, since 1978, the third industry and the second stage of labor The relative rate of labor productivity is always less than 1; 3. labor service industry structural imbalance between supply and demand, high technology talents are in short supply. Therefore, the evolution of the overall trend and the internal structure of Chinese service industry, analyzes the existing problem of the development of the service industry from two aspects of qualitative and quantitative, has certain practical significance. This paper starts from the structure of the service industry. By distinguishing the service industry using the target is the final demand or intermediate demand, service industry will be further divided into productive service industry and service industry. Two kinds of heterogeneity into account two types of service industry, to Baumol's unbalanced growth model this paper analyzes the structure of service industry, the introduction of the model and explain the employment share of producer services and life of service industry growth rate and the growth rate of labor productivity, price elasticity, income elasticity between factors such as the contact. In this paper, 1990-2013 China services industry data and manufacturing data to test the extended model. The results show that the overall service industry in the "cost disease" is mainly composed of a life of service to the "cost disease" caused. Chinese employment share of consumer services to improve the cost labor productivity growth, and the sector demand price elasticity and income elasticity of demand is very low, which leads to consumer spending consumer services increased, so as to guide the "cost disease". Producer service industry employment share growth will not have a negative impact on the overall economic productivity, the development of producer service the industry provides a possibility to solve the problem of service cost disease. To sum up analysis of service industry problems not only starting from the whole, should be integrated with the internal structure analysis, classification discussion service department The impact on the economy as a whole.

【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F719

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