经济结构、政府债务与地方政府债券发行成本——来自1589只地方政府债券的证据

发布时间：2018-03-16 12:39

本文选题：地方政府债券　切入点：固定投资率　出处：《经济理论与经济管理》2017年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：地方政府债券自2015年起进入常态化、大规模发行阶段,其发行定价亟待研究。本文构建了地方经济结构、政府债务风险状况与地方政府债券发行成本的作用机制,运用地方政府债券发行数据,对其发行利率和同期国债的利差,与发行人经济结构、政府债务率、债券特征及市场资金供给等变量进行了实证研究。定量分析表明,地方的固定资产投资率、政府债务率与地方政府债券发行利差显著正相关,但因为区域经济异质性,西部地区固定资产投资率、东北地区的地方债务率与地方政府债券发行利差呈显著负相关;定向承销的发行方式显著增大了发行利差,但Shibor与发行利差无显著关系。据此建议加快区域协调发展,提高地方政府债券流动性,适度增大地方政府债券发行量。
[Abstract]:Since 2015, local government bonds have entered the stage of normalization and large-scale issuance. The pricing of local government bonds needs to be studied urgently. This paper constructs the mechanism of local economic structure, the risk of government debt and the cost of issuing local government bonds. Based on the data of local government bond issuance, the paper makes an empirical study on the difference between the interest rate of local government bond issuance and the interest rate of the national debt issued by the issuer, the ratio of government debt, the characteristics of bonds and the supply of market funds, etc. The quantitative analysis shows that, Local fixed asset investment rate, government debt ratio and local government bond issuance interest margin are significantly positive correlation, but due to regional economic heterogeneity, the western region fixed asset investment rate, The ratio of local debt in Northeast China is negatively correlated with the spread of local government bond issuance, the issuance method of directional underwriting increases the spread of issuance interest significantly, but Shibor has no significant relationship with the spread of issuing interest. Therefore, it is suggested that regional coordinated development should be speeded up. Improve the liquidity of local government bonds and appropriately increase the amount of local government bonds issued.
【作者单位】：武汉大学经济与管理学院;
【分类号】：F121.3;F812.5

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