合同能源管理项目全生命周期风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-05-05 00:25

本文选题：合同能源管理 + 全生命周期　；参考：《合肥工业大学》2017年博士论文

【摘要】：合同能源管理作为一种全新的充分应用市场机制的商业化能源管理模式。它是基于节能服务公司和用能客户之间建立一组复杂的契约关系,能够有效降低能源成本,提升能源利用效率的节能模式,它不单是推销节能产品和技术,也同时是一种减少能源成本的管理技术、财务管理方法,是推进生态文明建设的重要手段。由于合同能源管理项目中业务过程与契约的复杂性和不完备性,使得合同能源管理项目实施过程中存在众多风险源,严重制约了合同能源管理项目的顺利实施,因此,系统的识别和科学评价合同能源管理项目全生命周期的风险具有重要的理论与现实意义。文章的主要创新性工作如下:(1)系统梳理分析了相关理论文献。科学界定合同能源管理项目风险内涵的基础上,总结了合同能源管理项目的主要运作模式和基本实施步骤。以全生命周期理论为基础,把项目划分为实施前需求分析、实施方案设计、运营与调控、项目完成合同履行四个阶段。采用流程图分析法,优化出一个更具科学性、更全面的项目业务工作流程,对合同能源管理项目全生命周期业务流程进行全面分析,建立了项目总流程图和各阶段分流程图,展示项目实施的全部工作活动。统一表述项目主要工作步骤,项目的重点环节,便于检查各环节工作进展状况,能够及时发现问题和调整,形成了一个开放的不断发展、积累和总结的项目实施构架。(2)进行了基于全生命周期的合同能源管理项目风险识别和风险评价指标体系构建。应用了 WBS-RBS 法(Work Breakdown Structure, Risk Breakdown Structure,工作分解结构和风险分解结构)和德尔菲法对合同能源管理项目进行风险识别,通过对项目的细致分解,把项目可交付成果和工作分解成较小,易于管理的部分,在此基础上对每项子工作任务进行风险辨识与分析,弥补了传统方法的随机性所导致风险识别有可能发生遗漏的缺点。充分考虑了项目各阶段与风险之间动态的影响关系,克服将风险视为静态的、单阶段出现、相互独立的不足,每一阶段工作任务对应本阶段所遇见主要风险,进行整理、归纳后,构建了合同能源管理项目风险评价指标体系。并详细剖析了各类风险源。(3)构建了合同能源管理项目全生命周风险综合评价模型。合同能源管理项目风险是典型的多阶段多属性信息融合问题,评价中存在大量不确定性问题。文章将AHP法和D-S证据理论有机融合,AHP法重点解决项目全生命周期各阶段指标权重,而D-S证据理论作为多源信息融合的工具,可以较好的解决信息融合过程中的不确定性问题,同时在处理定量指标时采用了白化权函数来获取基本可信度,解决了混合属性一致性转化问题。两方法的结合有效利用领域专家的经验,不仅能科学合理得出项目总风险,也能得出项目生命周期内各阶段风险水平,利于更好风险掌控。并以某市节能服务公司实施的项目作为案例分析对象,验证所构建风险综合评价模型的有效性。在评估确定性和准确性方面相比较模糊综合评估法(FCE)有了显著的改善。本文围绕合同能源管理项目的全生命周期风险评价开展相关研究,可以促进节能服务公司、用能客户及其他相关利益方提高风险识别与评估能力,实施项目有效的风险管理,实现预期节能减排目标。
[Abstract]:As a brand new commercial energy management model, the contract energy management is based on the establishment of a complex contract relationship between energy saving service companies and customers, which can effectively reduce energy cost and improve energy efficiency. It is not only the sale of energy saving products and technology, but also the energy saving products and technology. It is a kind of management technology to reduce the cost of energy, and the financial management method is an important means to promote the construction of ecological civilization. Because of the complexity and incompleteness of the business process and contract in the contract energy management project, there are many sources of risk in the implementation of the contract energy management project, which seriously restricts the contract of the contract energy management project. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to identify and scientifically evaluate the whole life cycle risk of the contract energy management project. The main innovative work of this article is as follows: (1) systematic analysis of the relevant theoretical literature. Based on the scientific definition of the risk connotation of the contract energy management item, the contract energy management is summarized. On the basis of the whole life cycle theory, the project is divided into pre implementation demand analysis, implementation plan design, operation and control, project completion of the four stages of contract performance. The whole life cycle business process of the energy management project is analyzed comprehensively, the total project flow chart and the process diagram of each stage are set up, all the work activities of the project are displayed, the main work steps of the project, the key link of the project, the inspection of the progress of each link, the timely discovery of the problems and the formation of the problems and the formation of the problems and adjustments can be found. An open and continuous development, accumulation and summary of the project implementation framework. (2) a whole life cycle based contract energy management project risk identification and risk evaluation index system construction. The application of the WBS-RBS method (Work Breakdown Structure, Risk Breakdown Structure, work decomposition structure and risk decomposition structure) and Delphy Through the detailed decomposition of the project, the method decomposes the deliverables and work into smaller and manageable parts. On this basis, the risk identification and analysis of each sub task can be made up, which make up for the missing of risk identification caused by the traditional methods. Taking full consideration of the dynamic relationship between each stage and the risk of the project, overcoming the risk regarded as static, single stage, independent and independent, each stage work task corresponds to the main risks encountered in this stage, and then constructs the risk evaluation index system of the contract energy management project. All kinds of risk sources. (3) the whole life cycle risk assessment model of the contract energy management project is constructed. The risk of the contract energy management project is a typical multi-stage multi attribute information fusion problem. There are a lot of uncertainties in the evaluation. The paper combines the AHP method with the D-S evidence theory, and the AHP method focuses on the whole life cycle of the project. The weight of phase index, and D-S evidence theory as a tool for multi source information fusion, can better solve the uncertainty in the process of information fusion. At the same time, the whitening weight function is used to obtain the basic credibility in the processing of quantitative indexes, and the problem of the conversion of the conformance of mixed attributes is solved. The combination of the two method can effectively use the experts in the field. The experience, not only can scientifically and rationally draw the total project risk, but also can get the risk level of each stage in the life cycle of the project, which is beneficial to the better risk control. Compared with the whole life cycle risk assessment of the contract energy management project, the relevant research on the whole life cycle risk assessment of the contract energy management project can promote the energy saving service companies to improve the ability to identify and evaluate the risk with the customers and other relevant stakeholders, implement the effective risk management of the project, and realize the expected energy saving and emission reduction target. Mark.

【学位授予单位】：合肥工业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F206

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