金矿勘查影响机制与投入分析模型

发布时间：2018-05-11 20:50

本文选题：金矿勘查 + 勘查投入　；参考：《矿业研究与开发》2017年11期

【摘要】：分析社会经济发展对金矿勘查活动的影响传导机制,建立金矿勘查投入定量分析模型,对于研判金矿勘查形势具有重要的意义。在综述社会经济发展对金矿勘查影响传导机制的基础上,重点分析了影响我国金矿勘查活动的黄金价格、金矿勘查利润、黄金资源储量等主要因素,建立了我国金矿勘查投入的机理分析模型和统计分析模型,并对金矿勘查投入进行了预测。结果表明:1990年以来,我国金矿勘查活动由传统计划经济体制主导转变为市场经济体制主导,特别是2006年以后金矿勘查活动主要受黄金市场的影响;2006年以来,我国金矿勘查收入与黄金价格、黄金生产利润呈正相关关系,与黄金资源储采比呈负相关关系;查明黄金资源基础储量的增减对下一年金矿勘查投入具有明显的影响。总体判断,在2016年黄金生产利润上升和探矿权管理政策变化的背景下,2016年金矿勘查或已进入本轮周期的谷底,2017年金矿勘查投入可能会实现稳中略升。
[Abstract]:It is of great significance to analyze the conduction mechanism of the influence of social and economic development on gold exploration activities and to establish a quantitative analysis model of gold exploration investment. On the basis of summarizing the transmission mechanism of the influence of social and economic development on gold exploration, the main factors affecting gold exploration activities in China, such as gold price, gold exploration profit, gold resource reserves, etc., are analyzed. The mechanism analysis model and statistical analysis model of gold exploration investment in China are established, and the gold exploration investment is predicted. The results show that gold exploration activities in China have changed from traditional planned economy system to market economy system since 1990, especially after 2006, gold exploration activities have been mainly influenced by gold market. There is a positive correlation between gold exploration income and gold price, gold production profit, and a negative correlation between gold exploration income and gold resource reserve ratio, and it is found that the increase or decrease of gold resource base reserves has a significant influence on gold exploration investment in the next year. Overall, against the backdrop of rising gold production profits in 2016 and changes in prospecting rights management policies, gold exploration in 2016 may have reached the bottom of the current cycle, and investment in gold exploration in 2017 is likely to stabilise and rise slightly.
【作者单位】：中国地质调查局发展研究中心;
【基金】：地质矿产调查评价专项地质勘查进展与工作程度动态分析二级项目(DD20160088)
【分类号】：F406.7;F426.1;P618.51

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