基于全寿命周期成本管理的220kV变压器选型决策研究

发布时间：2018-06-21 03:07

本文选题：全寿命周期成本 + 计量经济学　；参考：《福州大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国电网规模的快速发展和日益扩大,电气设备的数量和规模也在不断地增加,传统的设备管理方式已经不能满足电力企业对设备成本的优化与控制。因此,研究电气设备全寿命周期成本(Life Cycle Cost, LCC)管理体系,优化设备配置,降低设备全寿命周期成本,实现设备在全寿命周期内投入较少的费用、而获得较大利用率,它在电力工程中具有重要的现实意义。本文将全寿命周期成本管理方法应用于220kV变压器的选型研究。文中首先研究变压器选型的一次投资成本,然后综合考虑变压器在服役期间的运维检修费、故障成本等费用提出三种不同冷却方式的220kV变压器全寿命周期成本估算模型及其可靠性评价方法,并将这种方法用于220kV变压器的优化选型分析。论文主要完成以下工作：文中首先介绍了国内外在全寿命周期成本管理方面的研究和应用情况,以及电气设备全寿命周期成本的各组成部分,即一次投资成本、运维检修成本、损耗成本、故障成本和退役处置成本等。同时也介绍几种常用于成本估算的方法及其存在的问题。详细阐述了计量经济学基本原理、灰色系统理论及其算法和步骤,为后续研究奠定理论基础。其次,文中应用计量经济学的逐步回归法、主成分分析法以及分别采用多元线性和非线性回归方程建立220kV变压器的一次投资成本模型,并通过实例分析验证了采用非线性一次投资成本模型更符合实际情况。文中还指出一次投资成本只是设备全寿命周期成本中的一部分,它不能作为变压器选型的最终决策依据,还必须统筹考虑变压器全寿命周期中的其他费用。然后应用灰色系统理论预测方法建立220kV变压器运维检修成本、损耗成本、故障成本以及退役处置成本等模型。最后综合考虑变压器从购买到投运直至报废各个阶段的费用,提出了三种不同冷却方式220kV变压器全寿命周期成本估算模型及其可靠性评价方法。最后文中将提出的三种选型方法应用于220kV变压器的优化选型决策分析,同时对选择结果进行可靠性评价。从经济角度和设备可靠性两个方面进行综合考虑,最终提出变压器选型的最优决策方案。提出的方法在工程中具有实际应用和参考价值。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development and expansion of power network scale in China, the number and scale of electrical equipment are also increasing. The traditional equipment management method can not meet the optimization and control of equipment cost in power enterprises. Therefore, it is necessary to study the life cycle cost (LCCs) management system of electrical equipment, optimize the equipment configuration, reduce the cost of the whole life cycle of the equipment, realize the lower cost of the equipment in the whole life cycle, and obtain the larger utilization ratio. It has important practical significance in electric power engineering. In this paper, the life-cycle cost management method is applied to the selection of 220 kV transformers. In this paper, the primary investment cost of transformer selection is studied first, and then the maintenance and repair cost of transformer during service is considered synthetically. Three life cycle cost estimation models of 220 kV transformers with different cooling modes and their reliability evaluation methods are proposed and applied to the optimization selection analysis of 220 kV transformers. The main work of this paper is as follows: firstly, this paper introduces the research and application of life-cycle cost management at home and abroad, as well as the components of the life-cycle cost of electrical equipment, that is, the cost of primary investment, the cost of operation and maintenance, and the cost of maintenance and repair. Loss cost, breakdown cost and decommissioning cost, etc. At the same time, several methods used in cost estimation and their existing problems are also introduced. The basic principles of econometrics, grey system theory and its algorithms and steps are described in detail, which lays a theoretical foundation for further research. Secondly, the stepwise regression method of econometrics, principal component analysis and multivariate linear and nonlinear regression equations are used to establish the primary investment cost model of 220 kV transformer. An example is given to verify that the nonlinear primary investment cost model is more in line with the actual situation. It is also pointed out that the cost of once investment is only a part of the whole life cycle cost of equipment, which can not be used as the final decision basis for the selection of transformers, and other costs in the life cycle of transformers must also be considered as a whole. Then the operation and maintenance cost, loss cost, fault cost and decommissioning cost of 220 kV transformer are established by using grey system theory prediction method. Finally, considering the cost of transformer from purchase to operation to end-of-life, three different cooling modes of 220 kV transformer are put forward and their life cycle cost estimation model and reliability evaluation method are proposed. Finally, the three selection methods proposed in this paper are applied to the analysis of the optimal selection of 220 kV transformers, and the reliability evaluation of the selection results is carried out at the same time. Considering the economic aspect and the reliability of equipment, the optimal decision scheme of transformer selection is put forward. The proposed method has practical application and reference value in engineering.
【学位授予单位】：福州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM41

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