系统动力学应用于高技术企业研发成本预测的研究

发布时间：2018-09-12 09:18

【摘要】：我国要构建创新型国家,需要企业不断地努力提高研发水平,制造出一批科技含量高的产品。研发活动作为高技术企业发展的动力,在科技迅猛发展的今天,变得日益重要,高技术企业研发成本预测也随之变得越来越重要。本研究以技术创新理论、人力资源理论、系统论等理论为支撑,根据高技术企业研发成本具有的复杂性、非线性、时变性等特点,将高技术企业研发成本预测视为由研发能力、生命周期、成本预测方法、新产品新技术增幅、外部环境五大子系统共同构成的一个系统。根据各子系统的特征及影响因素,有针对性地设计了各子系统的评价指标。根据各子系统内部各指标之间的关系,分别设计各子系统因果图,在此基础上,综合各子系统,设计高技术企业研发成本预测系统流位图,建立系统动力学模型。应用VENSIM软件,应用所构建的高技术企业研发成本预测系统动力学模型,进行实际案例分析,检验模型的拟合程度,并结合案例分析结果,提出切实可行的改进案例企业研发成本预测的措施。将系统动力学应用到高技术企业能够转变企业对研发进行成本预测的理念,使高技术企业更加重视研发成本预测,并能够使用科学有效方法进行研发成本预测,有助于高技术企业提高研发成本预测准确性,提高决策效率,增强核心竞争力。应用系统动力学方法进行高技术企业研发成本预测研究,不但有助于改善高技术企业研发成本预测不准确的现状,提升企业研发成本预测的能力和准确性,进而提高企业研发活动效率,而目有利于研发成本预测理论的发展,在一定程度上丰富了成本管理理论。
[Abstract]:In order to build an innovative country, enterprises need to improve their R & D level and produce a batch of products with high scientific and technological content. As the driving force of the development of high-tech enterprises, R & D activities have become increasingly important today with the rapid development of science and technology, and the prediction of R & D costs of high-tech enterprises has become more and more important. Based on the theories of technological innovation, human resources, system theory and so on, according to the characteristics of R & D cost of high-tech enterprises, such as complexity, nonlinearity and time-varying, this study regards R & D cost prediction of high-tech enterprises as R & D capability. Life cycle, cost forecasting method, new product and new technology increase, external environment, five subsystems constitute a system. According to the characteristics and influencing factors of each subsystem, the evaluation index of each subsystem is designed. According to the relationship between the indexes of each subsystem, the causality diagram of each subsystem is designed separately. On the basis of this, the system flow bitmap is designed to predict the R & D cost of high-tech enterprises, and the system dynamics model is established. By using the VENSIM software and the dynamic model of R & D cost prediction system of high-tech enterprises, the actual case analysis is carried out, the fitting degree of the model is tested, and the result of case analysis is combined. The paper puts forward feasible measures to improve R & D cost prediction of case enterprises. The application of system dynamics to high-tech enterprises can change the concept of cost forecasting of R & D, make high-tech enterprises pay more attention to R & D cost prediction, and can use scientific and effective methods to predict R & D costs. It is helpful for high-tech enterprises to improve the accuracy of R & D cost prediction, improve the efficiency of decision-making and enhance the core competitiveness. The application of system dynamics method to the research of R & D cost prediction in high-tech enterprises is not only helpful to improve the current situation of inaccurate R & D cost prediction in high-tech enterprises, but also to enhance the capability and accuracy of R & D cost prediction in high-tech enterprises. Thus, the efficiency of R & D activities is improved, and the development of R & D cost forecasting theory is beneficial to the development of R & D cost forecasting theory, which enriches the cost management theory to a certain extent.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨商业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F273.1;F276.44;F275.3

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