农产品入世“过渡期”结束后中国粮食贸易的演变

发布时间：2019-04-17 18:48

【摘要】：农产品入世"过渡期"结束后,我国由粮食净出口国逆转为粮食净进口国,粮食贸易赤字不断创历史新高。解构粮食贸易赤字显示,一方面我国粮食贸易赤字83%以上来自大豆净进口的贡献;另一方面小麦、玉米、大米的贸易净出口量同期大幅下降,两方面因素共同作用拉升我国粮食净出口赤字。入世后,我国粮食进口占世界粮食出口比重不断提高,但三大主粮进口占世界粮食出口比重非常低。同时粮食进口市场高度集中的风险并没有缓解,主要进口市场集中在南北美洲及东南亚地区。我国粮食竞争力分析显示,入世前、"过渡期"、"过渡期"结束,我国玉米和大米国际竞争力都经历了较强竞争力——一般竞争力——很弱竞争力的过程,竞争力呈现"滑坡"式趋势。小麦在三个阶段经历了从很弱竞争力——一般竞争力——很弱竞争力。大豆长期以来处于弱竞争力水平。
[Abstract]:After the transition period of China's entry into WTO, China turned from a net grain exporter to a net food importer, and the grain trade deficit reached an all-time high. Deconstructing grain trade deficit shows that on the one hand, more than 83% of China's grain trade deficit comes from the contribution of net soybean imports; On the other hand, the net export volume of wheat, corn and rice dropped sharply in the same period, and the two factors together pulled up the net grain export deficit of our country. After China's entry into WTO, the proportion of China's grain imports to the world's grain exports continues to increase, but the proportion of the three major grain imports to the world grain exports is very low. At the same time, the risk of high concentration of grain import markets has not been alleviated, the main import markets are concentrated in North and South America and Southeast Asia. The analysis of China's grain competitiveness shows that before China's entry into WTO and the end of the "transitional period", the international competitiveness of China's corn and rice has gone through a process of strong competitiveness-general competitiveness-very weak competitiveness. Competitiveness presents a "landslide" trend. Wheat has gone through three stages from very weak competitiveness-general competitiveness-very weak competitiveness. Soybean has long been at a low level of competitiveness.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院农村发展研究所;
【基金】：中国社会科学院重大招标项目“转变经济发展方式与中国经济安全战略研究”(201401) 中国社会科学院农发所智库课题:粮食生产功能区建设标准、激励机制和支持政策
【分类号】：F323.7;F752.6

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