甘肃省经济增长与就业关系实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-03 16:25

本文关键词：甘肃省经济增长与就业关系实证研究　出处：《甘肃农业大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：经济增长与就业之间的关系问题是当前国内研究的热点话题，也是宏观经济研究的重点问题，论文首先回顾了国内外研究现状，对古典、新古典以及非均衡增长与转移就业涉及经济增长与就业关系的观点方法进行了比较分析，对国内的研究从就业弹性变化趋势分析、经济增长与就业增长同步性研究、高增长低就业原因探析、产业产值增长的非均衡就业、经济增长优先与就业优先争论、特殊人群就业与经济增长关系六大方面分类综述分析，为该论文的研究提供了坚实的理论基础。其次，对甘肃省经济增长和就业变动特征进行了分析，发现自1978年以来，甘肃省经济总量的时间趋势图呈“U”型曲线右半段特征，经济增长经历了高增长率高度波动、高增长率较高度波动、高增长率低度波动三个阶段，增长速度在趋向平稳。三次产业产值增长速度依次是“二、三、一”，产值比重大小依然是“二、三、一”，与理想的产业结构“三、二、一”存在差距。甘肃省就业总量变化经历了高增长率高度波动、低增长率高度波动、较高增长率低度波动三个阶段，三次产业就业比重大小为“一、三、二”，第一产业就业比重基本稳定在60%，二三产业就业比重提升相当缓慢。从短期来看，甘肃省经济增长与就业增长的增长性在多数年份是相反的，即高经济增长率伴随低就业增长率，波动性却一致。从长期来看，二者的增长性从不一致到一致性变动，波动性从高度波动一致到低度波动一致，总体来看，高经济增长率、低就业增长率现象越来越明显。然后，文章分析了表征经济增长和就业增长变量的基本关系，三次产业产值及就业量和经济总量、就业总量的相关性检验结果表明，在所有相关系数中，第一产业产值Y1与第三产业就业总量L3的相关系数最大是0.794，并且在0.01上通过显著性检验。格兰杰因果检验得出，甘肃省经济增长率是总就业增长率变动的格兰杰原因，而不是二三产业就业增长率变动的格兰杰原因，，总就业增长率不是经济增长率变动的格兰杰原因，而二三产业就业增长率是引起经济增长率变动的格兰杰原因。因此，要有效化解这一矛盾，就必须以增加二三产业就业量为出发点，形成经济增长和就业增长的良性循环。引入技术不变条件下的双对数新古典增长模型，估算了1978-2010年以及每个11年三个阶段劳动和固定资产投资对经济增长的贡献，结果表明，在长期内劳动和固定资产投资对甘肃省经济增长贡献份额分别是0.35和0.73，短期比较发现劳动对经济增长的贡献份额先大幅下降，然后又缓慢上升。另外，对奥肯定律的五种模式进行了区域性验证，得出奥肯定律的差分、缺口、对称动态、生产函数模式均在甘肃实证中失灵，只有非对称动态奥肯定律在甘肃省经济收缩期适用，在经济扩张期失灵。因此，在甘肃省经济收缩期，通过增加产出，促进经济增长以降低失业率是有效的，而在经济扩张期单纯依靠经济增长抵御高失业率却存在一定的风险。接着，根据就业弹性基本计算公式E=GL/Gy计算了甘肃省就业弹性，得出改革开放以来甘肃省就业弹性变化大体趋势是：80年代高就业弹性，高就业弹性波动；90年代高就业弹性，低就业弹性波动；2000年之后低就业弹性，低就业弹性波动。回归方法旨在得到甘肃省长期平均就业弹性，三次产业联动回归作用下就业弹性大小是“一、二、三”，非联动回归弹性大小依次是“三、二、一”，两种回归情况下三次产业就业弹性大小排序恰好相反，这不仅说明了第一产业就业“蓄水池”的“备胎之马太效应”，也说明了第三产业的高就业吸纳能力。最后，基于2007年甘肃省投入产出直接消耗系数矩阵，对42个细分行业就业创造能力计算得出，服务业平均就业创造能力是0.0967人/万元，高于工业平均就业创造能力0.0789人/万元和农业0.0330人/万元，从理论上证明了第三产业中以服务业为代表的高就业创造能力。甘肃省细分行业中就业创造能力较大的依次是：煤炭开采与洗选业、教育事业、水利环境公共设施管理业、水的生产和供应业、仪器仪表加工机械制造业、公共管理社会组织、金融业、卫生社会福利业、电力热力生产供应业、文化体育娱乐业等。细分行业就业创造能力排序表明，并不是所有高就业创造能力行业都集中在第三产业，也并不是制造业的所有行业都是低就业创造能力行业。因此，在看到服务业高就业创造能力的同时，要给予高就业创造能力的制造业资金支持和政策倾斜。和全国细分行业就业创造能力比较发现，甘肃省除了和全国具有共同的就业创造引领行业外，如教育事业、社保福利业，也有其不同于全国的高就业创造能力行业，如金融业。基于以上经济增长和就业的基本关系，结合各细分行业就业创造能力差异，为了降低甘肃省失业率，抵御不断下降的就业弹性，摆脱高增长、低就业、高失业率的尴尬局面，基本政策建议是：要以就业优先增长为目标，确保就业水平稳定上升；第二产业注重结构优化，第三产业加快技术创新；加大对高就业创造行业的支持力度；在甘肃省经济收缩期，降低失业率的首选方法是增加产出，促进经济增长，而在经济扩张期抵御高失业率要重点通过引导劳动力向高就业创造能力行业流动；充分利用国家促进就业政策，全力推进城乡统筹就业；积极学习其他省份促进就业的政策和办法，确保就业服务工作长效化、常态化。
[Abstract]:The relationship between economic growth and employment is a hot topic in current domestic research, also is the key problem of macroeconomic research, this paper firstly reviews the status of domestic and foreign research on classical, new classical and non balanced growth and employment transfer point method relates to economic growth and employment relations are analyzed, the research on the domestic from the analysis of the change trend of employment elasticity, synchronization of economic growth and employment growth, high growth of industrial output growth low employment reasons, unbalanced employment, economic growth and employment priority priority argument, special population employment and economic growth classification review analysis of the relationship between the six aspects, provides a solid theoretical foundation for the research of this thesis.
Secondly, the economic growth of Gansu province and the change of employment characteristics are analyzed, found that since 1978, the time trend of Gansu province's economy showed "U" curve right above characteristics, the economic growth experienced high growth rate high volatility, high growth rate is highly volatile, high growth rate and low volatility in three stages, the growth rate in tended to be stable. Three industry output growth rate are two, three, one ", the proportion of the size is still two, three, one", and the ideal industrial structure "three, two". There is a gap between the total amount of employment changes in Gansu province has experienced high growth rate high volatility the low growth rate of high volatility, the higher growth rate of low volatility in three stages, three industrial employment proportion of the size of "one, three, two, the proportion of primary industry employment stability in 60%, the proportion of the two or three industry employment promotion is very slow. In the short term, Gansu Province The growth of economic growth and employment growth is opposite in most years, the economic growth rate is high with low employment growth rate, volatility is consistent. In the long term, the growth of the two never agreed to change the consistency, volatility from high to low volatility caused by volatility is consistent, overall, high economy the growth rate and low employment growth rate is more and more obvious.
Then, the paper analyzes the basic characterization of relationship between economic growth and employment growth variables, the output value of the three industries and employment and economic aggregate, the total employment correlation test showed that the correlation coefficients of all, correlation coefficient of the first and the third industry industrial output value Y1 L3 maximum total employment is 0.794, and through the significant test 0.01. Grainger causality, the economic growth rate of Gansu province is the Grainger reason of change in total employment growth rate, rather than the two or three industry employment growth rate of the reasons for the change of Grainger, the total employment growth rate is not the Grainger reason of economic growth rate changes, while the two or three industry employment growth rate is caused by Grainger cause growth rates therefore, to resolve this contradiction, we must increase the amount of employment in the two or three industry as the starting point, forming a virtuous circle of economic growth and employment growth.
Double logarithmic neoclassical growth model introduced under the condition of constant, estimated 1978-2010 years and 11 years each of three stages of labor and fixed asset investment contribution to economic growth, the results show that in the long term labor and fixed asset investment contribution to economic growth of Gansu province share were 0.35 and 0.73, compared to short-term labor contribution to the economic growth of the first decline, and then rising slowly.
In addition, the regional test on five modes of Okun's law, Okun's law that the difference, gap, symmetrical dynamic production function model, failure in Gansu empirical, only the asymmetric dynamic Okun's law applicable in Gansu Province during the period of economic contraction, the failure in the period of economic expansion. Therefore, in Gansu Province during the period of economic contraction and by increasing the output, promote economic growth to reduce the unemployment rate is effective, but there are certain risks in the period of economic expansion relying solely on economic growth against the high rate of unemployment.
Then, according to the employment elasticity of the basic formula E=GL/Gy to calculate the employment elasticity of Gansu province since the reform and opening up, that the employment elasticity of Gansu province in general trend is: 80s high employment elasticity, high employment elasticity fluctuation; 90s high employment elasticity, low employment elasticity fluctuation after 2000; low employment elasticity, low employment elasticity regression method to get fluctuations. Gansu Province, the long-term average employment elasticity, three industry linkage regression under employment elasticity is one, two, three, the size of the order is non elastic linkage regression "three, two", two regression case of three industry employment elasticity ranking on the contrary, it not only introduces the first industry employment "" the spare reservoir "Matthew effect", also shows that the third industry of high ability to absorb employment.
Last 2007, Gansu province input-output direct consumption coefficient matrix based on the calculation of the employment of 42 industry segments, creative ability, service industry average employment creation ability is 0.0967 people / million, higher than the industry average employment creation capacity of 0.0789 people / million and agriculture 0.0330 / million, theoretically proved that the high employment creation the ability to service as a representative of the third industry in Gansu province. The sub sectors in employment creation are: large coal mining and washing industry, education, environment and public facilities management industry of water conservancy, water production and supply industry, instrument processing machinery manufacturing industry, public management, social organization, finance, health and society the welfare industry, electricity and heat production and supply industry, culture and sports entertainment industry. Industries employment creation ordination showed that not all high employment creation industries are concentrated in the third industry, also Not all industry and manufacturing industry are low employment creation industries. Therefore, in the service industry to see high employment creation capacity at the same time, to give the high employment ability of the manufacturing industry financial support and preferential policies. And the breakdown of the industry employment creation comparison, in addition to the Gansu province and the national common employment creation lead outside the industry, such as education, social welfare, also is different from the high employment creation capacity of the industry, such as the financial industry.
The basic relationship between the economic growth and employment based on the combined employment of each industry segment creation ability difference, in order to reduce the unemployment rate of Gansu Province, against the employment elasticity decreasing, get rid of high growth and low employment, high unemployment in the embarrassing situation, basic policy recommendations: to increase priority employment as the goal, to ensure stable employment level rise; second industry focus on structural optimization, technological innovation of the third industry to accelerate the increase; create industry support for the high employment; in Gansu Province during the period of economic contraction, reduce the unemployment rate is the preferred method to increase output, promote economic growth, while in the period of economic expansion against high unemployment should focus on by guiding the labor to high employment creation ability business flow; make full use of national policies to promote employment, to promote urban and rural employment; active learning in other provinces to promote employment policies and measures to ensure The employment service work is long-term and normal.

【学位授予单位】：甘肃农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F249.27

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