安徽省林业产业结构演进趋势及优势产业选择研究

发布时间：2018-03-14 16:52

本文选题：安徽省　切入点：产业结构　出处：《北京林业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：根据1996年至2012年的安徽省林业统计数据,采用文献综述法、灰色预测法、弹性分析法以及动态偏离份额分析法对安徽省林业产业结构进行分析,选择出具有结构优势和竞争力优势的林业产业作为优势产业,以此带动安徽省林业经济的健康快速发展,为安徽省林业经济的发展提供具有针对性的建议。全文主要包括六个方面的内容：第一,对近几年安徽省林业产业发展现状进行分析,结果显示安徽省林业产业经济一直保持着增长趋势,产业结构发展不断得到优化,林业次级产业和二次产业产值也在不断的提局。第二,采用灰色预测方法对2013年至2030的安徽省林业产业产值进行预测,根据预测结果以安徽省三次林业产业产值在总产值中所占比重的变化为基础,对1996年至2030年安徽省林业产业演变进行阶段性划分,共分为四个阶段(第一阶段的产业结构模式为“一、二、三”,时间段为1996年至2007年；第二阶段的产业结构模式为“二、一、三”,时间段为2008年至2012年；第三阶段的产业结构模式为“二、三、一”,时间段为2013年至2019年；第四阶段的产业结构模式为“三、二、一”,时间段为2020年至2030年。)。第三,对安徽省每一阶段的林业产业做贡献率研究,对比每个阶段各次产业对林业总产值的影响程度,并与全国平均水平下同结构的各次产业对林业总产值的影响程度对比。结果表明每一阶段中安徽省各次林业产业产值对总产值的影响程度与产业模式同步；与全国平均水平相比,第二阶段期间,安徽省三次林业产业的弹性系数均比全国平均水平要低。第四,安徽省林业产业发展第二阶段的优势产业选择研究。对安徽省林业产业发展的第二阶段即2008年至2014年“二、一、三”产业结构阶段中的各次产业内次级产业产值进行预测(预测2013年和2014年林业次级产业内的次级产业产值),运用动态偏离份额法对安徽省林业发展的第二阶段进行优势产业选择,结果表明林业第二产业和第三产业是优势产业,三大产业内次级产业优势产业为林木培育和种植、经济林产品的种植和采集、花卉的种植、野生动物繁育和利用、木材加工及木、竹、藤、棕、苇制品制造、木竹藤家具制造、林产品化学产品制造、木制工艺品和木制文教体育用品制造、林业旅游与休闲、林业生态服务、林业专业技术服务、林业公共管理及其他组织服务。第五,安徽省林业产业发展的第三阶段优势产业选择研究,并与第二阶段的林业优势产业对比。先对2015年至2019年安徽省林业三次产业内的次级产业产值进行预测,再对安徽省林业产业发展的第三阶段进行偏离份额分析,选出此阶段的优势产业为林木的培育和种植、花卉的种植、野生动物的繁育和利用、木材加工及木、竹、藤、棕、苇制品制造,木竹藤家具制造,木竹苇浆制造,林产品化学产品制造,木制工艺品和木制文教体育用品制造、林业旅游与休闲、林业专业技术服务、林业公共管理及其他组织服务。将第二阶段与第三阶段的优势产业进行对比发现林业第一产业内次级产业中的经济林产品的种植和采集在第二阶段是优势产业但第三阶段不是优势产业,林业第二产业内次级产业中的木竹苇浆制造产业在第二阶段不是优势产业但第三阶段是优势产业,林业第三产业内次级产业中的林业生态服务产业表现为第二阶段是优势产业第三阶段不是优势产业。第六,根据以上研究对本文进行总结,依据结论提出相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:According to the Anhui provincial forestry statistical data from 1996 to 2012, using the method of literature, the gray prediction method, the elastic analysis of forestry industrial structure in Anhui province were analyzed and the dynamic shift share analysis method, selected structure and competitive advantages of the forestry industry as the dominant industry, in order to promote the rapid development of Anhui province forestry economic health, provide specific suggestions for the development of Anhui forestry economy.
The full text mainly includes six aspects:
First, we analyze the development status of forestry industry in recent years in Anhui province. The results show that the forestry industry economy in Anhui province has maintained an increasing trend, and the development of industrial structure has been continuously optimized. The output value of secondary industry and the two industry is also constantly improving.
Second, using the grey forecasting method of forestry industry in Anhui Province on 2013 to 2030 of the predicted value, according to the forecast results to Anhui Province three forestry industry output in the total output value in the proportion of the change based on 1996 to 2030 in Anhui province forestry industry evolution stage division, is divided into four stages (the first stage of the industrial structure model as the "one, two, three, the period is from 1996 to 2007; the second phase of the industrial structure model as the" two, three ", the period is from 2008 to 2012; the third phase of the industrial structure mode of" two, three ", the time period for the 2013 to 2019; the fourth phase of the industrial structure model as the" three, two ", the period is from 2020 to 2030.).
Third, do research on the contribution rate of each stage of Anhui province forestry industry, the influence degree of each industry comparison on the total output value of forestry industry, and the same with the national average level structure of the total output value of forestry are compared. The results show that the influence degree of each stage in Anhui Province, the forestry industry output value of the total output value of the degree of influence and industrial model synchronization; compared with the national average, during the second phase, three times of Anhui province forestry industry elasticity coefficient was lower than the national average.
Fourth, study on the selection of second stages in the development of forestry industry in Anhui province. The second stages of the development of the dominant industry of forestry industry in Anhui province from 2008 to 2014 two, the industrial structure, stage three "in the industry in the secondary industry output value prediction (prediction value of secondary industry in 2013 and 2014 in the forestry secondary industry). The use of dynamic shift share method of forestry development in Anhui province of the second stages of the superiority industry choice, results show that the second forestry industry and the third industry is the dominant industry, the three industry in the secondary industry as the industrial advantages of forest cultivation and planting, cultivation and collection of forest products, flower planting, wild animal breeding and utilization of wood processing and wood, bamboo, rattan, palm, reed bamboo and rattan wood products manufacturing, furniture manufacturing, forest products, chemical products, wooden crafts and wooden stationery and sporting goods manufacturing, tourism and Forestry Leisure, forestry ecological service, forestry professional technical service, forestry public management and other organization services.
Fifth, choose the research on the third stage of industrial development, the forestry industry in Anhui Province, and the second stage of the superior forestry industry comparison. First on 2015 to 2019 in Anhui province forestry three industries within the secondary industry output forecast, third stages of the development of the forestry industry in Anhui province the shift share analysis, choose this stage advantage industry cultivation and planting of trees, flowers, wild animal breeding and utilization, wood processing and wood, bamboo, rattan, palm, reed bamboo and rattan wood products manufacturing, furniture manufacturing, wood and bamboo reed pulp manufacturing, forest products, chemical products, wooden crafts and wooden stationery and sporting goods manufacturing, forestry, tourism and leisure professional and technical services, forestry, forestry management and other public service organizations. The second and third stages of the advantage industry comparison in sub industries of forestry primary industry in economic forest The products of cultivation and collection is the dominant industry in third stages but not the advantage industry in the second stage, wood and bamboo reed pulp second forestry industry in the secondary industry in the manufacturing industry in the second stage of the third stage is the dominant industry but not dominant industry, the third forestry industry in secondary industry in the forestry ecological service industry for the performance of the second stage is the dominant industry the third stage is not the dominant industries.
Sixth, according to the above research, this paper summarizes the article, and puts forward relevant policy suggestions according to the conclusion.

【学位授予单位】：北京林业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F326.2

【参考文献】