转型期中国城市公共安全感研究

发布时间：2018-05-05 20:36

本文选题：公共安全感 + 主观安全评价　；参考：《复旦大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：转型期的中国有不同于先发国家的特点,随着改革进入深水区,中国社会已经进入矛盾凸显期和风险放大期。近年来,中国公共安全事故频发,给人民生命、财产造成了重大损失；各种公共安全问题对社会公众的安全感受造成了影响和冲击,也对政府公共安全管理提出了更大的挑战。公众的不安全感不仅仅来源于公共安全事件,也和个体的生理、心理、境遇、认知等因素有关,同时也受到政府管理、社会环境、经济条件、媒体信息等多方面因素的影响,这些都对政府的风险管理和危机治理能力提出了极大挑战。研究公众的安全感来源和因素既是维护社会稳定、抗击风险的有效途径,也是发现公共安全问题,及时进行风险预警,使风险前置管理落到实处的重要举措。在已有的公共安全感研究中,存在着概念不清、范围过小、研究方法单一等问题,主要集中于犯罪、社会治安对公众安全感的影响的研究,所涉及到的因素主要和一些人口学变量(如性别、年龄、收入、职业等)有关,缺乏对各种社会因素、环境因素尤其是政府公共管理能力等方面对其影响的研究,对公众的主观认知对公共安全感造成的影响讨论也较少,而无论是社会阶层因素、公众对环境安全的认知因素还是对政府管理的信心因素无疑对政府管理提供了更多的安全管理的途径和线索,更具有公共管理的研究价值。本文主要融合社会学、心理学、犯罪学、公共管理和公共政策的理论、观点和方法,把基础研究和实证研究有机结合起来,厘清公共安全感的概念,回顾了公共安全感评价和相关实证研究的结论,确定一个普遍适用的、涵盖基本安全领域的公共安全概念体系,并按这一体系内容对上海近三年市民公共安全感调查数据进行深入的分析和研究,以此为基础有针对性地提出政府公共安全管理的对策建议与路径选择。主要研究发现如下：三年公共安全感的评价分析发现,2009年-201]年三年的上海市民公共安全感指数和政府公共安全管理满意度指数总体较平稳,但也有一些领域有较大波动。三年调查数据表明,上海市民的食品安全感出现了大幅度地下滑,交通安全感三年来也处于下降趋势,消防安全感在2010年调查中处于谷底。总的来看,居民对于政府的公共安全管理的满意指数大部分都高于自身的公共安全感指数,证明居民对于政府的公共安全管理能力具有一定的信心。但在一些领域中,居民的公共安全感指数却明显高于其对政府公共安全管理的满意度,如2009年的交通安全、食品安全、消防安全领域以及2011年的自然灾害的管理,特别是对于2009年的食品安全,政府食品安全管理的满意度远低于食品安全感。各类相关因素研究发现,公共安全感与个体的生理因素有关：男性比女性安全感更高,在食品安全感上差异特别显著。个体的个人境遇中的受教育年限对总体安全感和自然属性安全感有显著的负面影响,本科及以上学历的安全感大部分都处于最低或者次低的水平,除交通和环境安全感与学历的相关程度不显著外,其他安全感都显著,一般呈现学历越高,人们的安全感越低的负相关关系。这说明风险感知对公共安全感有比较明显的影响,越能感知风险的群体,安全感会越低,不安全感越强。个人的主观认知对公共安全感有一定影响：社会阶层与公共安全感之间也有一定联系,尤其是主观社会阶层的认知；在治安安全感上不同收入群体呈现收入越高,安全感越高的趋势；总的来说,主观社会阶层越高的人,其社会属性安全感越低；相对剥夺感会影响人们的安全感,认为收入越不合理的人群其总体安全感、社会属性和自然属性安全感就越低。社会环境对公共安全感影响明显：在其他条件不变的情况下,认为社会问题严重程度越高,各类安全感就越低；居住环境对公共安全感有一定的影响,住在内环和中环之间的被访者在食品和治安安全感上显著的低于住在外环以外的人,在环境安全感上则恰好相反；大众传媒是重要的信息“放大站”,对公众安全感的影响较大；参加与安全相关的活动和组织有助于提高公共安全感；公共安全管理的效果对公共安全感有促进作用,人们对政府维护公共安全的能力越有信心、越满意,人们的安全感会越高。公共安全感预警研究发现,通过ROC方法可发现logistic模型测算市民进入安全警戒范围的概率有较高的准确度。但由于本课题依据的调查数据只有三年,如果有足够年份安全感调查数据的情况下,可以按照这一思路提出进入安全感警戒线概率的方法,适用于计算市民的初始危机概率。针对研究发现,本论文从社会管理、安全信息公开、安全社区建设、风险预警机制、公共安全管理体系、公共安全学科建设等角度为提升民众安全感、建立一个公平合理安全的社会提出了相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In the period of transition , China has the characteristics of different countries , with the reform entering the deep water area , the Chinese society has entered the conflict highlight period and the risk amplifying period . In recent years , China ' s public safety accident has been frequent , has caused great loss to the people ' s life and property ;
The public safety perception is not only from public security incidents , but also influenced by factors such as government administration , social environment , economic conditions and media information , which are also influenced by various factors such as government administration , social environment , economic conditions and media information .

In the existing public security research , there are some problems such as unclear concept , too little scope and single study method , which are mainly focused on the study of the influence of crime and public security on public security . The factors involved are mainly related to some demographic variables ( such as gender , age , income , occupation , etc . ) .

This paper combines the theories , opinions and methods of sociology , psychology , criminology , public administration and public policy , combines the basic research and the empirical research organically , determines the concept of public security , reviews the public safety perception and relevant empirical studies , and determines a universally applicable public safety concept system covering the basic safety field .

The public safety perception index and public safety management satisfaction index of Shanghai residents in 2009 - 201 are generally more stable , but there are also some areas with big fluctuation . In general , the residents ' satisfaction index of public safety management in Shanghai is higher than that of its public safety perception index . In general , the residents ' satisfaction index of public safety management in the government is higher than that of its public safety management , especially for the food safety in 2009 , the satisfaction of the government food safety management is much lower than that of food security .

All kinds of relevant factors have found that the public security is related to the physiological factors of the individual : the male is higher than the female ' s safety , the difference is especially significant in the sense of safety of the food .
The higher the income of different income groups in the sense of security and security , the higher the security feeling ;
Generally speaking , the higher the subjective social stratum , the lower the safety of social attribute ;
The relative deprivation can affect people ' s sense of security , and the lower the income is , the lower the overall sense of security , social attribute and natural attribute . The social environment has obvious effect on public security . Under the condition of changing other conditions , the higher the social problem is , the lower the security feeling is .
The living environment has a certain influence on public security , and the respondent living between inner ring and middle ring is significantly lower than those who live outside the outside world .
The mass media is an important information " amplifying station " , which has great influence on public safety .
Participation in security - related activities and organizations contribute to public security ;
The effect of public safety management contributes to public security , and the more confident the government ' s ability to maintain public safety , the more satisfied , the higher the safety of people .

It is found that by using ROC method , it is found that the probability of the citizen entering the safe warning range can be determined by the ROC method . However , the investigation data based on this subject is only three years . In the case of sufficient year ' s security survey data , the method of entering the probability of security alert can be put forward , which is applicable to the calculation of the probability of the initial crisis of the citizen .

According to the research findings , this paper puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions from the aspects of social management , public safety information disclosure , security community construction , risk early warning mechanism , public safety management system and public safety discipline construction .

【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：D63

【参考文献】