不同空间尺度台风风暴潮灾害情景模拟与风险评估

发布时间：2018-05-09 15:07

本文选题：台风风暴潮 + 风险评估　；参考：《华东师范大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：中国东部沿海地区位于太平洋风暴盆地西北缘,台风风暴潮灾害频发,造成的损失具有不断增加的趋势,而上海作为全国经济、金融中心,一旦发生台风风暴潮灾害将会造成巨大的经济和社会损失。现有台风风暴潮风险研究多以历史台风风暴潮事件重现模拟为主,缺乏基于情景的完善的风险评估方法体系,对灾害空间尺度问题更是鲜有涉及。本文基于历史台风风暴潮灾害信息,利用概率统计方法和GIS空间建模方法,构建基于情景的台风风暴潮灾害风险评估方法体系,并就空间尺度效应进行探讨,这对台风风暴潮灾害风险研究具有一定的借鉴意义。在国家自然科学基金重点项目“沿海城市自然灾害风险评估实证研究(40730526)”、上海市教育委员会科研创新项目“上海地区台风-风暴潮-暴雨灾害链综合风险防范研究(13ZZ035)”、上海市科技启明星人才计划“基于情景分析的上海市自然灾害风险评估与区划研究(09QA1401800)”、华东师范大学科研创新基金项目“不同时空尺度灾害链综合风险评估研究-以上海为例”的资助下,论文选取中国东部沿海和上海地区作为两种空间尺度实证研究区,基于情景思想,综合运用台风危险性情景生成工具、水文数值模拟软件DHI MIKE21以及ArcGIS工具,按照“风险辨识-情景构建-危险性评估-脆弱性评估-风险区划及防范”的灾害风险研究体系,开展两种空间尺度风险评估工作,并提出有针对性的风险防范措施,同时探讨台风风暴潮灾害风险研究的空间尺度效应。本研究开展的工作及研究成果概况为： 1、基于情景思想,利用概率统计和GIS空间建模方法,构建两种空间尺度台风风暴潮灾害危险性模型,并提出了一套完整的台风风暴潮灾害风险评估方法体系：(1)统计分析2118场台风数据,开发建立台风危险性情景生成工具,并生成W20、W50、W100、 WN20、WN50、WN100、S20、S50、S100共三类9场台风情景数据。以台风为驱动力,在DHI MIKE21平台下完成台风风暴潮危险性模型构建。(2)从台风危险性情景构建、台风驱动下风暴潮灾害危险性模拟、台风风暴潮灾害风险评估三个方面构建了基于情景的台风风暴潮灾害风险评估方法体系。 2、以中国东部沿海地区为大尺度实证研究区,开展台风风暴潮灾害风险评估：(1)从9种情景台风风暴潮灾危险性评估结果上看,西移型情景台风风暴潮主要影响广东和海南两省,西北移型主要影响福建和浙江两个省份,转向型主要影响区域为浙江、上海、江苏三个地区；极端台风(100年一遇)情景下,西移型、西北移型、转向型情景淹没面积分别为10124、17915、23916km2。(2)选取3种极端危险性情景,开展台风风暴潮灾害脆弱性评估,从结果中可以看到,W100、WN100情景影响区域内,台风风暴潮灾害脆弱性等级多为1或2,处于中低水平；S100情景影响下的地区脆弱性等级较高,上海地区脆弱性等级为4。(3)基于台风风暴潮灾害危险性和脆弱性评估,进行风险区划,广东雷州半岛、海南岛沿海地区、浙江省东南部及杭州湾、江苏省南部为中风险区,上海市东部为中高风险区。(4)依据风险区划结果,提出中国东部沿海地区台风风暴潮灾害风险防范措施,即大尺度台风风暴潮灾害风险防范工作应把重点放在战略和政策导向方面,如调整社会发展模式,促进经济和自然协调与可持续发展。 3、以上海地区为中尺度实证研究区,开展台风风暴潮灾害风险评估：(1)从3种情景(W100、WN100、S100)台风风暴潮灾害危险性评估结果上看,上海主要淹没区域集中在崇明岛南部、长兴岛沿岸、横沙岛西侧、宝山区、浦东新区以及奉贤、金山沿海地区；极端台风情景(S100)下,淹没面积为351km2。(2)在脆弱性评估方面,上海高等级脆弱性主要存在于上海市崇明岛南岸、长兴岛南岸、宝山沿海地区、浦东滨海以及金山南部沿海。上述区域多为公共管理与公共服务用地及交通运输用地。(3)风险区划显示,上海地区极高危险区主要是崇明岛南端、宝山及浦东港口用地、金山南端。(4)依据风险区划结果,上海中尺度上,针对高风险区,风险防范应以风险管理和城市规划为导向,开展工程和生物防范工作,如在宝山、浦东、金山等极高风险区加固海塘,构建梯级防御工事等。 4、基于中国东部沿海和上海地区实证研究,探讨台风风暴潮灾害风险的空间尺度效应：(1)危险性空间尺度效应主要体现在情景构建方法上,即大尺度选用全部9种台风情景,中尺度仅选择显著影响该区域的3种,此外,大尺度模型开边界远大于中尺度,而在模拟结果精度上,中尺度明显好于大尺度。(2)脆弱性上具有评估方法和结果精度两方面的空间尺度效应,大尺度脆弱性评估将一级用地类型作为承灾体,中尺度脆弱性评估则选用二级用地类型为承灾体,因此中尺度台风风暴潮灾害脆弱性评估结果较大尺度更为精确。(3)台风风暴潮灾害风险区划的空间尺度效应表现为,在区划方法一致的前提下,由于数据精度的差别导致区划结果不同,即大尺度风险区划中,上海地区中高风险区仅出现在东北部黄浦江入海口附近,其余地方以低风险区为主；中尺度风险区划则更为细化,崇明岛沿岸多为中低风险区,宝山区沿海多为中高风险区,浦东沿海地区、南汇、奉贤基本为中低风险区,极高风险区分布在崇明岛南部沿岸、长兴岛南端、宝山、浦东港口用地处以及金山最南端。(4)在分析空间尺度效应基础上,利用空间降尺度方法构建了不同空间尺度耦合模式,包括数据耦合、方法耦合以及区划耦合。论文特色与创新：(1)强调灾害危险性情景的科学性和合理性：本研究在对中国东部沿海近50年台风资料进行分析基础上,利用概率统计学方法,对台风灾害的危险性进行统计分析,从而建立科学的危险性情景。(2)重视台风风暴潮灾害风险研究的工具与方法研究：本文从台风危险性情景构建、台风驱动下风暴潮灾害危险性模拟、台风风暴潮灾害风险评估三个方面建立科学的研究方法体系,并成功开发台风情景生成工具。(3)对空间尺度这一地理学难点问题进行探索性研究。在空间耦合模式的构建中,尝试利用大尺度模拟结果作为中尺度模拟所需的边界条件,以此体现两种空间尺度台风风暴潮灾害风险研究的联系。
[Abstract]:The coastal areas of eastern China are located in the northwest margin of the Pacific storm basin. Typhoon storm tide disasters are frequent, and the losses caused by the typhoon are increasing. As the national economic and financial center, Shanghai will cause huge economic and social loss once the typhoon storm tide occurs. In this paper, based on the historical typhoon storm tide disaster information, this paper uses the probability statistics method and the GIS spatial modeling method to construct the scenario based typhoon storm tide hazard risk assessment method system, and constructs the typhoon storm tide hazard assessment method system based on the situation. The spatial scale effect is also discussed, which has some reference significance for typhoon storm surge disaster risk research.
In the key project of National Natural Science Foundation, "empirical study on risk assessment of coastal urban natural disasters" (40730526), Shanghai education committee research and innovation project "Shanghai region typhoon storm tide rainstorm disaster chain comprehensive risk prevention research (13ZZ035)", Shanghai city science and technology star talent program "based on situational analysis of Shanghai City The study of natural disaster risk assessment and zoning (09QA1401800), the research and innovation fund of East China Normal University, funded by Shanghai as an example, selected the eastern coastal and Shanghai regions of China as two spatial scale empirical research areas, based on situational ideas and integrated transportation. Using the typhoon hazard scenario generating tool, the hydrologic numerical simulation software DHI MIKE21 and the ArcGIS tool, two kinds of space scale risk assessment work are carried out according to the disaster risk research system of "risk identification - risk assessment - vulnerability assessment - risk zoning and prevention", and the targeted risk prevention measures are put forward. The spatial scale effect of typhoon storm surge disaster risk research is discussed.
1, based on the scenario thought, using probability statistics and GIS space modeling method, we construct two kinds of hazard model of typhoon storm surge disaster in space scale, and put forward a complete set of risk assessment method system of typhoon storm tide disaster: (1) statistics and analysis of 2118 typhoons data, developing and establishing typhoon hazard scenario generating tool, and generating W20, W50, W 100, WN20, WN50, WN100, S20, S50, S100, a total of three types of typhoon scenario data. Take typhoon as the driving force, complete the typhoon storm surge hazard model under the DHI MIKE21 platform. (2) construction of typhoon risk scenario, typhoon driven Storm Surge Hazard simulation, Typhoon Storm Surge Hazard assessment based on the scenario based on the scenario based on the scenario. The risk assessment method system of typhoon storm surge disaster.
2, taking the coastal areas of eastern China as a large scale empirical research area, the risk assessment of typhoon storm surge disaster is carried out: (1) from the results of 9 scenarios of typhoon storm flood hazard assessment, the westward shifting scenario typhoon storm surge mainly affects two provinces of Guangdong and Hainan, and the Northwest migration mainly affects two provinces in Fujian and Zhejiang, and the main influence of the steering type The area is three regions in Zhejiang, Shanghai and Jiangsu; under the extreme typhoon (100 year encounter) scenario, the area of westward migration, northwest migration and steering type is 101241791523916km2. (2), respectively, to select 3 extreme risk scenarios, and to carry out the vulnerability assessment of typhoon storm surge disaster. From the results, we can see that the W100, WN100 situation affects the region, The vulnerability level of wind storm surge is 1 or 2, at the middle and low level; the vulnerability level of the region under the influence of S100 is high, the vulnerability grade of Shanghai region is 4. (3) based on the risk and vulnerability assessment of typhoon storm tide, and the risk zoning, the Leizhou Peninsula in Guangdong, the coastal area of Hainan Island, the Southeast Zhejiang province and the Hangzhou Bay, The southern part of Jiangsu province is the middle risk area and the east of Shanghai is the middle and high risk area. (4) according to the result of the risk zoning, the risk prevention measures of typhoon storm surge in the eastern coastal areas of China are put forward. That is, the risk prevention of large scale typhoon storm disaster should focus on the strategy and policy orientation, such as adjusting the social development model and promoting the economic development model. Economic and natural coordination and sustainable development.
3, taking the Shanghai area as the mesoscale empirical research area to carry out the risk assessment of typhoon storm surge disaster: (1) from the 3 scenarios (W100, WN100, S100) typhoon storm surge hazard assessment results, the main submergence areas in Shanghai are concentrated in southern Chongming Island, Changxing Island coast, west side of cross sand island, Baoshan District, Pudong New Area and Fengxian, the coast of Jinshan. Area; extreme typhoon scenario (S100), the submergence area of 351km2. (2) in vulnerability assessment, Shanghai high grade vulnerability mainly exists in Shanghai Chongming Island south bank, Changxing Island south bank, Baoshan coastal area, Pudong coastal area and southern Jinshan coast. The above area is mostly public management and public service land and transportation land. (3) The risk zoning shows that the most dangerous areas in Shanghai are the southern end of Chongming Island, the port land of Baoshan and Pudong and the southern end of the Jinshan. (4) according to the result of the risk zoning, the risk prevention should be directed by the risk management and the urban planning for the high-risk area, and the risk prevention should be based on the risk management and the urban planning as the guidance, the exhibition project and the biological prevention work, such as in Baoshan, Pudong, Jinshan and so on. Reinforcement of seawall and construction of stepped fortifications in high-risk areas.
4, based on the empirical study of the eastern coastal and Shanghai regions of China, the spatial scale effects of typhoon storm surge hazard risk are discussed: (1) the spatial scale effect of danger is mainly reflected in the scenario construction method, that is, the large scale selection of all 9 typhoon scenarios, the mesoscale only select 3 types that significantly affect the region, in addition, the large scale model opens the boundary. The mesoscale is much better than the mesoscale, and the mesoscale is better than the large scale in the accuracy of the simulation results. (2) the vulnerability has the spatial scale effect of the evaluation method and the result precision in two aspects. The large scale vulnerability assessment takes the first grade land type as the disaster bearing body, and the mesoscale vulnerability assessment selects the two grade land type as the disaster bearing body, so the mesoscale scale is the mesoscale. The result of typhoon storm surge vulnerability assessment is more accurate. (3) the spatial scale effect of Typhoon Storm Surge Hazard Zoning is manifested by the difference of data accuracy caused by the difference of data accuracy, that is, in large scale risk zoning, the middle and high risk areas in Shanghai region only appear in the Northeast yellow. In the vicinity of Pujiang entrance to the sea, the other places are mainly low risk areas, and the mesoscale risk zoning is more refined, the Chongming Island coast is mostly middle and low risk areas, the coastal areas of Baoshan District are mostly middle and high risk areas, the coastal areas of Pudong, Nanhui and Fengxian are basically middle and low risk areas, and the high risk areas are distributed in the southern coast of Chongming Island, the southern end of Changxing Island, Baoshan, PU. The east port land use and the south end of the Jinshan. (4) on the basis of the spatial scale effect analysis, the spatial scale coupling modes are constructed by spatial scaling method, including data coupling, method coupling and zoning coupling.
The characteristics and innovation of the paper: (1) emphasizing the scientificity and rationality of the disaster risk scenario: Based on the analysis of the typhoon data in the east of China for the last 50 years, this study makes a statistical analysis of the risk of typhoon disaster by using probability statistics method, thus establishing the dangerous situation of the sciences. (2) pay attention to the typhoon storm surge disaster. Research tools and methods of risk research: This paper builds a scientific research method system from three aspects of typhoon risk scenarios, typhoon driven storm surge hazard risk simulation, typhoon storm tide hazard risk assessment, and successful development of typhoon scenario generating tools. (3) exploring the difficult problems of spatial scale geography. In the construction of the spatial coupling model, we try to use the large scale simulation results as the boundary conditions for the mesoscale simulation, in order to reflect the relationship between the risk of typhoon storm disaster risk in the two spatial scales.

【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：P731.23

【引证文献】