中国政府公共投资的民生效应研究

发布时间：2018-05-24 03:06

本文选题：政府公共投资 + 民生现状　；参考：《山东大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：政府公共投资是各国政府行使社会公共管理职能和实施宏观经济调控的重要手段。随着市场经济的飞速发展,我国面临着经济与社会发展失衡的境况,民生问题日益凸显。在这一背景下,政府公共投资的理论研究及如何合理利用这一宏观调控工具来提高社会福利水平已经成为社会关注的热点问题。在公共投资研究领域,学者对公共投资的经济效应研究较多,而对其社会民生效应关注较少；对民生的研究多局限于“民生涵义—历史发展—民生现状—如何改善民生”研究路径,缺乏对民生的实证研究。因此,本文系统分析了政府公共投资对民生的作用机制,并充分运用本国数据对我国政府公共投资的民生效应进行实证检验分析,以更明确地认识我国政府公共投资在民生发展中的作用,对我国政府优化公共投资结构,提高社会福利水平具有重要的理论及现实意义。本文将民生改善定义为市场上公共物品和私人物品的供给满足了人们的消费需求,提高消费者效用水平,从而使人们对生活感到满意。按照政府公共投资对不同产品的消费需求的影响,本文将政府公共投资的民生效应划分为直接效应和间接效应。直接效应表现为政府公共投资直接促使了社会公共品供给的增加,如教育、社会保障水平的提升,满足人们对公共物品的需求；间接效应是指政府公共投资通过影响经济发展、就业、居民收入等方面对私人产品的供给和消费产生作用。在借鉴相关理论分析基础上,本文详细分析了政府公共投资的直接效应、就业效应和收入效应的作用机制,并提出了相应的理论假设：(1)政府公共投资与教育、社会保障等公共品供给成正相关关系；(2)政府公共投资对就业具有正效应；(3)政府公共投资能够优化就业结构；(4)政府公共投资能够增加城镇居民收入水平；(5)政府公共投资能够增加农村居民收入水平。在理论分析基础上,本文运用协整检验、向量自回归模型(VAR)及误差修正模型(EMC)等实证分析方法,以1990-2012年的政府投资及民生方面的数据为依据,对政府公共投资对有关民生的教育、社会保障、就业及收入方面的作用进行相关实证检验分析,研究结果分别验证了理论分析中提出的五个理论假设：第一,政府公共投资能够提高我国教育水平和社会保障水平；第二,短期内会使我国城镇登记失业率下降,但长期失业率的下降需要非政府公共投资发挥主要作用；第三,政府公共投资能够优化我国就业结构,促使劳动力从第一产业向二、三产业转移；第四,在增加居民收入方面政府公共投资主要发挥长期作用,短期内收入水平受前期收入水平和非政府公共投资的影响。综上分析,政府公共投资能够促进民生改善。我国政府在公共投资过程中应以公共服务需求界定政府公共投资范围并根据经济发展阶段进行调整,优化政府投资结构,促进政府公共投资由基础设施建设向公共服务转移,政府公共投资重点应由城市转向农村,加大对农村的投入,促进农民增收以缩小城乡收入差距；同时政府公共投资应起到引导和监管的作用,充分发挥非政府公共投资对民生改善的重要作用。
[Abstract]:Government public investment is an important means for governments to exercise social public management functions and implement macroeconomic regulation and control. With the rapid development of market economy, China is facing the situation of imbalance between economic and social development. The problem of people's livelihood has become increasingly prominent. In this context, the theoretical study of government public investment and how to make use of this macro reasonably In the field of public investment research, scholars have more research on the economic effects of public investment, but less attention to the social livelihood effect of public investment. The research on people's livelihood is limited to "the meaning of the people's livelihood - the present situation of the people's livelihood - how to improve the people's livelihood" "Research path, lack of empirical research on the livelihood of the people. Therefore, this paper systematically analyzes the mechanism of government public investment on the people's livelihood, and makes an empirical analysis of the people's livelihood effect of the government's public investment in our country, so as to make a clear understanding of the role of the government public investment in the development of the people's livelihood and to our government." It is of great theoretical and practical significance to optimize the structure of public investment and raise the level of social welfare.
This paper defines the improvement of people's livelihood as the supply of public goods and private goods on the market, which satisfies people's consumption demand, improves the consumer utility level, and makes people feel satisfied with life. According to the influence of government public investment on the consumption demand of different products, this paper divides the people's livelihood effect of government public investment into direct effect. The direct effect shows that the government public investment directly promotes the increase of the supply of public goods, such as education, the promotion of social security level, and the demand for public goods. The indirect effect refers to the supply and elimination of private products by the government's public investment in the aspects of economic development, employment, and residents' income. On the basis of related theory analysis, this paper analyzes the direct effect of government public investment, employment effect and the effect mechanism of income effect, and puts forward the corresponding theoretical hypothesis: (1) the government public investment and education, social security and other public goods supply has a positive correlation; (2) government public investment for employment. It has positive effect; (3) the government public investment can optimize the employment structure; (4) the government public investment can increase the income level of urban residents; (5) the government public investment can increase the income level of rural residents.
On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper uses cointegration test, vector autoregressive model (VAR) and error correction model (EMC) to analyze the role of government public investment on people's livelihood education, social security, employment and income on the basis of 1990-2012 years' data of government investment and people's livelihood. The results of the analysis verify the five theoretical hypotheses put forward in the theoretical analysis: first, the government public investment can improve the level of education and social security in our country; second, in the short term, the registered unemployment rate will decrease in China's cities and towns, but the decline of the long-term unemployment rate needs non-governmental public investment to play the main role; third, Government public investment can optimize the employment structure of our country and promote the transfer of labor from the first industry to the two and the three industry. Fourth, the government's public investment plays a long role in increasing the income of the residents. In the short term, the income level is affected by the early income level and the non-governmental public investment.
In a comprehensive analysis, government public investment can promote the improvement of the people's livelihood. In the process of public investment, the government should define the scope of public investment in the public service demand and adjust it according to the stage of economic development, optimize the structure of government investment, promote the transfer of public investment from basic Shi Jianshe to public service, and the government's public investment is heavy. It should be shifted from cities to rural areas, increase investment in rural areas, promote the increase of farmers' income and reduce the income gap between urban and rural areas, and government public investment should play the role of guidance and supervision, giving full play to the important role of non-governmental public investment on the improvement of the people's livelihood.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.24;D67

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