“4万亿”的经济效应与财政投资结构优化——基于CGE建模的分析

发布时间：2018-07-01 15:06

本文选题：可计算一般均衡 + 万亿投资　；参考：《经济学家》2012年10期

【摘要】：本文构建了一个凯恩斯结构的中国可计算一般均衡模型,以2007年的社会核算矩阵为数据基础,模拟考察了4万亿投资的宏观经济、部门经济效应以及分行业新增投资的经济效率。研究发现:(1)2009年至2010年间的4万亿投资方案能每年拉动GDP约1.42%,增加就业3.44%,但同时也挤出了相当大量的私人消费,导致居民福利水平下降严重,有利有弊;(2)相比于原计划,历经调整最后实际实施的刺激方案虽然宏观效应稍弱,但更加有利于三次产业整体结构的改善;(3)分部门来看,用于公共管理和社会组织、教育以及水利、环境和公共设施管理业三部门的政府投资支出效率较高,而房地产业、采矿业、电水气业三个部门的投资效应最差且为负面影响,尤其是房地产业。
[Abstract]:In this paper, we construct a Keynesian Chinese computable general equilibrium model. Based on the social accounting matrix of 2007, we simulate and examine the macro-economy of 4 trillion investment. Sectoral economic effects and economic efficiency of new investment by sector. The study found that: (1) the $4 trillion investment plan between 2009 and 2010 can boost GDP by about 1.422a year, increase employment by 3.44%, but at the same time squeeze out a considerable amount of private consumption, resulting in a serious decline in the welfare level of residents, with both advantages and disadvantages; (2) compared with the original plan, The stimulus package, which was finally implemented after adjustment, although slightly weak in macro effect, is more conducive to the improvement of the overall structure of the three industries; (3) in subsector terms, it is used in public administration and social organization, education and water conservancy. The three sectors of environment and public facilities management have higher efficiency of government investment, while the three sectors of real estate, mining and electricity and gas have the worst and negative effects, especially the real estate industry.
【作者单位】：华中科技大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(71073059、71173083) 国家社会科学基金(09BJL034) 教育部人文社会科学基金(09YJA790079)的资助
【分类号】：F812.4;F224;F123.6

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