基于公共管理视阈的我国现行生育政策研究

发布时间：2018-07-17 16:58

【摘要】：本文以现行中国的生育政策为研究对象,我国自实行计划生育以来,人口过快增长的势头,得到有效抑制,人民生活水平有了显著提高,经济社会的可持续发展得到有效保障。但与此同时,我们也应该清醒看到,实行三十余年的一胎化政策积累了很多弊端,如失独问题、男性数千万光棍人口所隐含的社会安全、独子老龄化所包含的养老安全、劳动力短缺前景下的经济安全、兵源不足所导致的国防安全等的巨大威胁,等等。可以肯定地说,21世纪以后的中国将长期面临人口失衡的局面。这些问题需要我们进行深刻的反思与深入研究。从国外的经验来看,韩国曾经也提倡小家庭,但现在已步入低生育率的陷阱。从中可以得出实行30多年的计划生育政策,随着中国人口结构、经济环境、综合国力等因素变化,该政策也要做出相应的调整来应对中国国情的变化。如果错过时机,随着经济发展,居民生育意愿会进一步下降,那时再调整就为时已晚了。21世纪我国经济能否稳定持续发展的一个关键,是能否实现由劳动密集型产业向技术密集和知识密集的产业结构转变。为此,21世纪产业结构升级要做的最重要的准备是增加对人力资本的投资,其中包括对教育、科研和健康的投资。同时加强人力资本投资提高人口素质也是现阶段中国经济升级的需要。现阶段人口素质问题是中国人口问题的核心。人口的可持续发展是中国经济可持续发展的关键。
[Abstract]:This article takes the current Chinese fertility policy as the research object. Since the implementation of family planning, the tendency of excessive population growth in China has been effectively suppressed, the living standard of the people has been significantly improved, and the sustainable development of economic and social development has been effectively guaranteed. But at the same time, we should also be aware that the one-child policy of more than 30 years has accumulated many disadvantages, such as the problem of losing independence, the social security implied by the tens of millions of single men, and the security of the aged by the aging of their only son. The economic security in the prospect of labor shortage, the great threat to national defense security caused by the shortage of troops, etc. It is certain that China will face a long-term population imbalance after the 21 st century. These questions need us to carry on the deep reflection and the thorough research. From foreign experience, South Korea used to advocate small families, but has now entered the trap of low fertility. It can be concluded that the family planning policy has been implemented for more than 30 years. With the changes of population structure, economic environment, comprehensive national strength and other factors, the policy should be adjusted accordingly to cope with the changes in China's national conditions. If the opportunity is missed, as the economy develops, the fertility willingness of the residents will decline further. By then, it will be too late to readjust. The key to the stable and sustainable economic development of our country in the 21st century, It is possible to realize the transformation from labor-intensive industry to technology-intensive and knowledge-intensive industrial structure. Therefore, the most important preparation for the upgrading of industrial structure in the 21st century is to increase investment in human capital, including investment in education, scientific research and health. At the same time, strengthening the investment of human capital to improve the quality of the population is also the need of China's economic upgrading. At present, population quality is the core of Chinese population problem. The sustainable development of population is the key to the sustainable development of Chinese economy.
【学位授予单位】：福建师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：C924.21

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