“营改增”对企业现金流风险的影响研究

发布时间：2018-02-27 03:20

本文关键词： 营改增现金流风险抵扣效应税率提高效应　出处：《东南大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】："营改增"即营业税改征增值税改革,既是完善税制的需要,也是减轻第三产业税收负担、推动产业结构转型升级的手段。作为宏观经济中的微观主体,企业的各项行为和经营绩效都会受到宏观政策影响。现金流对于企业生存和发展有着举足轻重的作业,"营改增"这项税制改革会对企业现金流的充足性和稳定性以及现金流风险产生何种影响是本文的主要研究内容。本文采用2013至2016年153家我国上市公司的财务数据,通过理论分析,描述性分析和面板模型多元回归分析等方法研究"营改增"对企业现金流的影响。最终实证结果表明"营改增"与企业现金流风险存在显著的相关性,"营改增"后,企业税负的增减会带来现金流风险同方向变动,生产成本的抵扣效应与企业现金流风险存在显著的负相关关系,而固定资产抵扣效应在"营改增"后短期内对企业现金流风险不存在显著影响。改革之后,交通运输业企业的现金流风险受税负变化的影响更明显。无论是交通运输业还是现代服务业,"营改增"税率的提高对企业现金流风险都带来了负面的影响,且税率提高幅度越大,现金流风险越大。另外,"营改增"抵扣效应对处于发展期企业的现金流风险的影响大于处于衰退期和成熟期的企业,尤其是在固定资产的抵扣效应普遍不显著的情况下,发展期企业的固定资产抵扣效应的相关系数是负值,说明固定资产的抵扣效应一定程度上改善了发展期企业的现金流风险。
[Abstract]:"Business tax reform", that is, business tax reform, is not only the need to improve the tax system, but also the means to reduce the tax burden of the tertiary industry and promote the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure. The behavior and performance of enterprises will be affected by macro policies. Cash flow is very important for the survival and development of enterprises. The tax reform of "business reform" will be sufficient and stable to the cash flow of enterprises. The main content of this paper is the influence of cash flow risk. This paper uses the financial data of 153 listed companies from 2013 to 2016. Through theoretical analysis, Descriptive analysis and panel model multivariate regression analysis are used to study the influence of "business transformation increase" on corporate cash flow. The final empirical results show that there is a significant correlation between "business reform increase" and corporate cash flow risk. The increase or decrease of enterprise tax burden will bring about the change of cash flow risk in the same direction. The deduction effect of production cost has a significant negative correlation with the enterprise cash flow risk. However, the fixed assets deduction effect has no significant effect on the cash flow risk of the enterprise in the short term after the "camp reform and increase". The cash flow risk of transportation enterprises is affected more obviously by the change of tax burden. Whether it is transportation industry or modern service industry, the increase of tax rate has a negative impact on the cash flow risk of enterprises. Moreover, the higher the tax rate is, the greater the cash flow risk is. In addition, the effect of "business reform and increase" on the cash flow risk of the enterprises in the developing period is greater than that of the enterprises in the recession and mature period. Especially under the condition that the deduction effect of fixed assets is not significant, the correlation coefficient of fixed assets deduction effect of developing enterprises is negative, which indicates that the deduction effect of fixed assets improves the cash flow risk of enterprises in developing period to some extent.
【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F812.42;F275

【参考文献】