投资者情绪、管理者过度自信对跨国并购绩效的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-13 08:40

本文选题：投资者情绪　切入点：管理者过度自信　出处：《辽宁大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国股权分置改革的实施,推动了上市公司新一轮并购高潮的出现,也促进了跨国并购的蓬勃发展。传统金融理论假设市场有效、投资者和管理者完全理性,对并购及跨国并购的一些绩效异常情况缺乏解释力。因此,本文基于行为公司金融学的研究视角,将投资者情绪与管理者过度自信理论相结合,分析了投资者情绪、管理者过度自信对跨国并购绩效的影响及其影响路径。本文的研究成果丰富了行为金融学对跨国并购绩效影响的研究,也为我国上市公司改善公司治理机制、建立科学的投资决策机制以及保护跨国并购活动中股东利益提供了实证支持。本文以我国资本市场上存在投资者非理性和管理者非理性,且这种非理性易引发非理性投资为背景,回顾了学者们关于投资者情绪、管理者过度自信对并购及并购绩效的有关研究。然后依据噪声交易理论、认知失调理论、情绪泛化假说及自大假说等理论,梳理了投资者情绪和管理者过度自信影响企业跨国并购绩效、投资者情绪影响管理者过度自信的作用机理,并提出了相关假设,确定了相关变量的衡量方法。之后建立了回归模型来检验相关假设,并得出了研究结论。最后从行为金融学的视角上,对如何更好的提升跨国并购绩效以及如何识别投资者和管理者非理性提出针对性的建议,为我国企业更好的完成跨国并购活动提供了支持。在本文的实证分析中,以2013年间在沪深A股市场上的33起跨国并购事件为样本,将跨国并购绩效分为短期绩效和长期绩效,分别检验了投资者情绪对管理者过度自信、跨国并购绩效的影响;之后将投资者情绪与管理者过度自信相结合,检验了管理者过度自信在投资者情绪和跨国并购绩效之间的中介效应。本文研究发现,管理者过度自信与投资者情绪正相关;跨国并购绩效与投资者情绪负相关;管理者过度自信在投资者情绪和跨国并购绩效之间存在部分中介作用。本文的研究内容及框架共分为五部分:绪论、理论分析与研究假设、研究设计、实证分析与结果和结论与建议。在绪论中介绍了研究背景,提出了要研究的问题,并阐述了本研究的理论与现实意义;然后,对投资者情绪、管理者过度自信与并购绩效进行了相关的文献回顾与评述;最后提出了本文的研究思路、研究方法、研究内容、基本框架和创新点。在理论分析与研究假设中对相关变量的概念进行了界定,并介绍和确定了变量的衡量方法;然后梳理了投资者情绪及管理者过度自信的相关理论;并依据这些理论分析了投资者情绪、管理者过度自信与跨国并购绩效三者之间的关系,提出了研究假设,为下文的实证提供铺垫。在研究设计中首先介绍了跨国并购样本的选取、数据的来源、所需的变量及其定义,并在此基础上,提出了实证研究的模型,并对模型进行了剖析。实证分析与结果中首先介绍了跨国并购短期和长期绩效的计算;之后进行了描述性统计分析;然后分为短期绩效和长期绩效,分别进行了相关性分析,并回归检验了投资者情绪对管理者过度自信的作用、投资者情绪对跨国并购绩效的作用,并探讨了管理者过度自信在投资者情绪与跨国并购绩效关系中的中介作用;最后进行了稳健性检验。结论与建议章节中首先总结了研究结论;之后对本文的研究结论进行了相关讨论,提出了一些针对性意见;最后分析和讨论了本研究的局限性,并对未来研究的方向进行了展望。
[Abstract]:The implementation of China's share reform of listed companies, promote the emergence of a new round of mergers and acquisitions climax, also promote the vigorous development of transnational mergers and acquisitions market hypothesis. The traditional financial theory, investors and managers are fully rational, lack of explanatory power on the performance of multinational M & A and some abnormal situation. Therefore, this research perspective based on behavioral corporate finance theory, investor sentiment and managerial overconfidence theory combined with the analysis of investor sentiment, the influence of Managerial Overconfidence on transnational mergers and acquisitions performance and influence path. This study enriches the research results of behavioral finance impact on cross-border mergers and acquisitions performance, but also improve the corporate governance mechanism in China listed companies, provide empirical support for the interests of the shareholders to establish scientific investment decision-making mechanism and the protection of transnational mergers and acquisitions activities. This paper exists in China's capital market investors Non rational and irrational managers, which easily lead to irrational irrational investment as the background, reviews the scholars on investor sentiment, managerial overconfidence on mergers and acquisitions performance related research. Then based on the noise trading theory, the theory of cognitive dissonance, emotional generalization hypothesis and arrogant hypothesis theory, combing the investors emotional and managerial overconfidence influence of transnational M & a performance, the mechanism of the influence of investor sentiment of managerial overconfidence, and put forward relevant assumptions, determine the methods to measure the relevant variables. After the establishment of the regression model to test the hypotheses, and draw the conclusion. Finally, from the perspective of behavioral finance, cross-border mergers and acquisitions the performance of how to better improve and how to identify the investors and managers of non rational and targeted recommendations, for the completion of the Chinese enterprises transnational mergers and acquisitions. Provide support. In the empirical analysis in this article, with 2013 years in Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares on the market 33 transnational merger and acquisition events as samples, will be cross-border mergers and acquisitions performance is divided into short-term and long-term performance, tested the investor sentiment of Manager Overconfidence, influence of transnational mergers and acquisitions performance; after the investor sentiment and managerial overconfidence combined the mediating effect test of managerial overconfidence between investor sentiment and transnational mergers and acquisitions performance. This study found that managerial overconfidence and investor sentiment is positively related to the performance of transnational merger and investor sentiment; negative correlation; managerial overconfidence between investor sentiment and transnational mergers and acquisitions performance has a partial mediating effect. Research content and framework of this thesis is divided into five parts: introduction, theoretical analysis and research hypothesis, research design, empirical analysis and results and conclusions and recommendations. The introduction introduces the research background, the research questions, elaborated on the theoretical and practical significance; then, on investor sentiment, managerial overconfidence and M & a performance reviews and reviews relevant literature; finally puts forward the research ideas, research methods, research content, basic the framework and innovation. In the theoretical analysis and research hypothesis in the concept of related variables were defined, and the methods of measuring and determining variables; and then sort out the related theories of investor sentiment and managerial overconfidence; and on the basis of the theory analysis of the investor sentiment, the relationship between Managerial Overconfidence and transnational mergers and acquisitions performance the three, put forward the hypothesis, to pave the way for the following empirical research. In the design first introduced the selection of cross-border mergers and acquisitions of samples, data sources, and the variables required Righteousness, and on this basis, put forward the empirical research model, and the model is analyzed. The empirical analysis and results of first introduced the calculation of cross-border mergers and acquisitions of short-term and long-term performance; after the descriptive statistical analysis; and then divided into short-term and long-term performance, respectively for the correlation analysis, and regression test. Investor sentiment of manager overconfidence effect, effect of investor sentiment on cross-border mergers and acquisitions performance, and to explore the mediating role of Managerial Overconfidence on the relationship between investor sentiment and transnational mergers and acquisitions performance; finally a robust test. The conclusion and suggestion in the first chapter summarizes the research conclusion; then the conclusions of this study are the discussion, put forward some specific opinions; finally analyzes the limitations of this study and discussed and directions for future research are prospected.

【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F279.2;F271

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