我国跨年度预算平衡机制问题研究

发布时间：2018-05-02 23:51

本文选题：跨年度预算平衡机制 + 中期财政规划　；参考：《首都经济贸易大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,随着中国的经济增速放缓,财政收支矛盾进一步加剧,各级政府面临着更严峻的债务风险。然而未来一段时间内我国公共支出和投资规模仍呈现出大规模上升趋势,这将导致财政支出压力大幅攀升,加剧了对我国财政制度抗压能力的考验。传统的年度预算平衡机制存在较多问题,不仅无法起到熨平经济波动的作用,反倒给经济运行带来更大的风险。实践证明,跨年度预算平衡机制可以有效克服传统年度预算存在的弊端,因此当前预算管理模式改革是朝着跨年度预算平衡机制与中期财政规划的方向发展。本文首先介绍了跨年度预算平衡机制的内涵及理论基础,并对其客观存在的必要性进行深入探析。其次,本文深入剖析了跨年度预算平衡机制在我国实践的难点及存在的问题,充分借鉴了西方发达国家跨年度预算平衡机制改革的成功经验。最后,为进一步完善我国跨年度预算平衡机制改革,本文提出了应继续提高中期财政收支预测水平,做好跨年度预算与宏观经济政策的衔接工作,进一步提高跨年度预算在执行中的法律地位和效力,完善专项转移支付定期评估和退出机制等政策建议。另外,相关配套措施也需进一步完善,应建立跨年度预算绩效指标评价体系,并继续深化权责发生制下政府综合财务报告制度改革。本文针对跨年度预算编制的最大难点——中期财政收支预测,利用经过季节调整后的财政收支月度数据,通过建立ARIMA模型进行预测,结合经验分析提出相对准确的预测方法,为保障跨年度预算平衡机制顺利实施提供有价值的参考。
[Abstract]:In recent years, as China's economic growth slows and fiscal revenue and expenditure conflicts intensify, governments at all levels are facing more severe debt risks. However, in the future, the scale of public expenditure and investment in China will continue to show a large-scale upward trend, which will lead to a sharp rise in the pressure of fiscal expenditure, which has intensified the test of the ability of our fiscal system to resist pressure. There are many problems in the traditional annual budget balance mechanism, not only can not play the role of ironing the economic fluctuations, but also bring greater risks to the economic operation. Practice has proved that the inter-annual budget balance mechanism can effectively overcome the shortcomings of the traditional annual budget, so the current budget management model reform is towards the cross-annual budget balance mechanism and medium-term financial planning direction. This paper first introduces the connotation and theoretical basis of the inter-annual budget balance mechanism, and probes into the necessity of its objective existence. Secondly, this paper deeply analyzes the difficulties and problems in the practice of cross-annual budget balance mechanism in our country, and fully draws lessons from the successful experience of cross-annual budget balance mechanism reform in western developed countries. Finally, in order to further improve the reform of the inter-annual budget balance mechanism in China, this paper puts forward that we should continue to improve the level of medium-term fiscal revenue and expenditure forecasting, and do a good job in linking the cross-annual budget and macroeconomic policies. We should further improve the legal status and effectiveness of the inter-annual budget and improve the periodic evaluation and withdrawal mechanism of special transfer payments. In addition, the relevant supporting measures need to be further improved, the inter-annual budget performance indicators evaluation system should be established, and continue to deepen the accrual basis of the government comprehensive financial reporting system reform. In this paper, according to the biggest difficulty of the inter-annual budget preparation, the medium-term fiscal revenue and expenditure forecast, using the monthly data of fiscal revenue and expenditure after seasonally adjusted, through the establishment of ARIMA model to forecast, combined with empirical analysis to put forward a relatively accurate forecasting method. To ensure the smooth implementation of the cross-annual budget balance mechanism to provide a valuable reference.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F812.3

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