地方政府债务纳入中期财政规划管理的效应研究——基于美国州政府的实证检验

发布时间：2018-05-04 09:05

本文选题：地方政府债务 + 中期财政规划　；参考：《财政研究》2017年09期

【摘要】：2016年起,中国对纳入中央部门预算的一般公共预算和政府性基金预算实行中期财政规划管理。中期财政规划管理是否可以加强地方政府债务管理,防范财政风险,成为理论和实践需要验证解决的问题。本文首先分析中期财政规划管理与地方政府债务的传导机制,并整理出美国50个州政府1965-2014年的债务和财政收支数据,以负债率和财政支出波动率作为财政绩效指标建立面板回归模型进行实证检验。研究结论表明:(1)中期财政规划的实施及其阶段提升对财政支出波动率和负债率具有显著的负向影响;(2)随着中期财政规划实施阶段的提升,中期财政规划降低支出波动率,控制地方政府债务规模的总体效应增强。
[Abstract]:Since 2016, China has implemented medium-term fiscal planning for the general public budget and the government fund budget, which are included in the central government budget. Whether the medium-term financial planning management can strengthen the local government debt management and guard against the financial risk has become a problem that needs to be verified and solved in theory and practice. This paper first analyzes the transmission mechanism between the medium-term fiscal planning management and the local government debt, and collates the debt and fiscal revenue and expenditure data of the 50 states of the United States from 1965 to 2014. Using debt ratio and financial expenditure volatility as financial performance indicators, a panel regression model is established for empirical test. The results show that the implementation of the medium-term fiscal planning and its phase increase have a significant negative impact on the volatility of fiscal expenditure and debt ratio. 2) with the improvement of the implementation stage of the medium-term fiscal planning, the medium-term fiscal planning reduces the volatility of expenditure. The overall effect of controlling the scale of local government debt has increased.
【作者单位】：中央财经大学财政税务学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重点项目《建立现代预算制度研究》(资助号:14AZD022) 北京市哲学社科规划项目《跨年度预算平衡机制构建与北京市引入中期预算管理研究》(资助号:15JGB108) 中央财经大学重大科研课题培育项目《国家治理能力提升下的政府施政行为规范研究》的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：F817.12

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