基于关键因素的国家重大区域规划实施效果评价

发布时间：2018-05-07 01:14

本文选题：重大区域规划 + 政策效果　；参考：《运筹与管理》2017年01期

【摘要】：以国家重大区域规划中的长三角为实证研究对象,利用加权灰色关联度筛选出与政策效果评价关联性高度相关的政策指标:中央财政专项拨款、中央补助收入、中央固定资产投资额,进而建立政策指标与规划目标的第三产业增加值的对数回归函数,通过过去的数据预测某一特定年份第三产业增加值,并与该年份的实际值进行对比、评价国家重大区域规划的政策效果。本文的特色与创新一是通过灰色关联度剔除与政策效果评价关联度小的指标,筛选出对重大区域规划政策效果有显著影响的关键因素。二是通过时间权向量对政策指标的关联度进行加权,体现时间越近的年份、加权灰色关联度越大,指标越应该保留的思路,保证年份越近的指标数据、对评价结果影响越显著。三是通过历史数据的预测,得到在没有规划政策下、区域自然发展的目标效果,并把其与同一时点、政策实施后的实际效果进行对比,得到政策实施后的政策绩效。实证结果表明应该增大对上海和浙江影响显著的中央财政专项拨款的政策投入,减少对上海和浙江影响不显著的中央固定资产投资额的投入。
[Abstract]:Taking the Yangtze River Delta in the national major regional planning as the empirical research object, the weighted grey correlation degree is used to screen out the policy indicators that are highly relevant to the evaluation of the policy effect: the central financial special appropriation, the central subsidy income, The central fixed assets investment, then establishes the logarithmic regression function of the added value of the tertiary industry between the policy index and the planning target, forecasts the added value of the tertiary industry in a given year through the past data, and compares it with the actual value of that year. To evaluate the policy effectiveness of national major regional planning. The features and innovations of this paper are as follows: firstly, the key factors which have significant influence on the policy effect of major regional planning are selected by removing the grey correlation degree and the index of low correlation degree of policy effect evaluation. The other is that the relative degree of policy index is weighted by time weight vector, which shows that the closer the time is, the bigger the weighted grey correlation degree is, the more the index should be retained, and the more significant the influence on the evaluation result is when the index data of the closer the year is guaranteed. The third is to get the target effect of regional natural development without planning policy through the prediction of historical data, and compare it with the actual effect after the policy implementation at the same time, and get the policy performance after the policy implementation. The empirical results show that we should increase the policy input of the central financial special allocation which has a significant impact on Shanghai and Zhejiang, and reduce the investment of central fixed assets which has no significant impact on Shanghai and Zhejiang.
【作者单位】：大连理工大学管理与经济学部;大连海事大学综合交通运输协同创新中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71171031,71471027) 国家社会科学基金项目(16BTJ017);国家社会科学基金重大项目(06&ZD039) 辽宁经济社会发展重点课题(2015lslktzdian-05) 国家发展改革委员会项目(2011-47-01) 大连市发展改革委员会项目(2011-10)
【分类号】：F127

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