对外开放、人力资本对东亚国家经济增长绩效的影响

发布时间：2018-06-02 13:05

  本文选题：增长绩效 + 全要素生产率　； 参考：《南京大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：自2008年全球性的金融危机爆发以来,世界经济的增长持续走低,而一直以来,奉行着依靠日益增加的资本和劳动力等要素投入的传统经济增长方式在当今时代新的背景下一方面面临着资源和环境的种种约束,另一方面,这种高资源密集型的投入在实践中并不能真正实现宏观经济的持续稳定增长。所以我们越来越需要考虑寻找新的经济增长点。一般认为,影响经济增长的原因无非是质和量两个方面:量的方面通常是指投入要素数量和种类的增多,而质的方面就是经济增长的效率。我们通常选用索洛所提出的全要素生产率(TFP)来衡量经济增长的效率或者说是绩效。东亚经济问题的研究一直是经济学界研究的热门话题。东亚国家在二战以后特别是20世纪50年代开始,以日本为先导,紧接着是被称为"亚洲四小"的韩国、新加坡、中国香港和中国台湾于20世纪60年代开始了突飞猛进的增长态势,进入70年度末80年代初则主要表现为中国经济的快速崛起,以及一大批东亚国家如菲律宾、印尼、马来西亚等的快速发展。以中国为例,1991年的GDP总量仅为22006亿人民币,2013年的GDP总量高达595244亿元人民币1,在短短的23年之内经济总量增加了将近26倍。东亚国家之所以能出现如此快速的经济增长态势离不开其"外向型"的发展战略,同时,也离不开东亚国家自身所具有的人口红利和人力资本的积累。本文采用东亚12个国家与地区1991-2013年的面板数据,研究了对外开放和人力资本投资以及二者的共同作用对这些国家和地区全要素生产率的影响。同时,考虑到人力资本的结构化差异,比较分析了异质性人力资本投入对东亚国家全要素生产率的不同影响。此外,按照一定的标准将东亚12个国家划分成不同的区域,并对这些区域做了进一步的比较研究,从而得出一些有益的结论。文章结果显示:对外开放和人力资本投资及二者的共同作用显著地促进了东亚国家全要素生产率;人力资本投资的不同层次对全要素生产率的具有不同的影响,高等教育和中等教育的人力资本投资对全要素生产率有着显著的正向影响;提高对外开放程度对东亚发展水平较高的国家和地区的全要素生产率的影响较大,人力资本投资对处于东亚发展程度较低的国家和地区全要素生产率的影响大于发展程度较高的国家和地区。文章结果表明,进一步提高对外开放程度,加大对人力资本的投资,发挥政府宏观调控的作用,加强对金融发展的监管和一定程度上人均资本密集度的提高是东亚国家实现全要素生产率的增长和持续经济增长的可行之策。
[Abstract]:Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, the growth of the world economy has continued to decline. The traditional mode of economic growth, which relies on increasing capital and labor input, is facing the constraints of resources and environment on the one hand, and, on the other hand, under the new background of the times. This kind of high-resource-intensive investment can not really realize the sustained and stable growth of macro-economy in practice. So we need to look for new economic growth points more and more. It is generally believed that the causes of economic growth are only qualitative and quantitative: the quantity usually refers to the increase in the number and types of input elements, and the qualitative aspect is the efficiency of economic growth. We usually use TFP proposed by Solow to measure the efficiency or performance of economic growth. The study of economic problems in East Asia has always been a hot topic in the field of economics. East Asian countries began to lead by Japan after World War II, especially in the 1950s, followed by South Korea and Singapore, known as the "four Little Asia". Hong Kong, China and Taiwan began to grow by leaps and bounds in the 1960s. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, they mainly showed the rapid rise of China's economy, as well as a large number of East Asian countries such as the Philippines and Indonesia. The rapid development of Malaysia. In China, for example, total GDP was only 2.2006 trillion yuan in 1991 and 59.5244 trillion yuan in 2013, an increase of nearly 26 times in just 23 years. The rapid economic growth of East Asian countries can not be separated from their "export-oriented" development strategy, but also from the demographic dividend and human capital accumulation of East Asian countries themselves. Based on the panel data of 12 countries and regions in East Asia from 1991 to 2013, this paper studies the effects of opening to the outside world, human capital investment and their combined effects on the total factor productivity (TFP) of these countries and regions. At the same time, considering the structural difference of human capital, the different effects of heterogeneous human capital investment on the total factor productivity of East Asian countries are compared and analyzed. In addition, 12 countries in East Asia are divided into different regions according to certain criteria, and further comparative studies on these regions are made, and some useful conclusions are drawn. The results show that opening to the outside world and human capital investment and their combined effects have significantly promoted the total factor productivity of East Asian countries, and the different levels of human capital investment have different effects on the total factor productivity. Investment in human capital in higher education and secondary education has a significant positive impact on total factor productivity, and greater openness has a greater impact on total factor productivity in countries and regions with higher levels of development in East Asia. The impact of human capital investment on the total factor productivity (TFP) of the countries and regions with low level of development in East Asia is greater than that of the countries and regions with a higher level of development. The results show that, to further improve the degree of opening to the outside world, increase investment in human capital, give play to the role of government macro-control, Strengthening the supervision of financial development and increasing the per capita capital intensity to a certain extent are the feasible measures to realize the growth of total factor productivity and sustained economic growth in East Asian countries.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F113;F249.1
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本文编号：1968868