基于系统动力学的生鲜农产品国际冷链物流运作风险控制研究——以云南省生鲜蔬菜国际冷链物流为例

发布时间：2018-07-10 09:53

本文选题：生鲜农产品 + 国际冷链物流　；参考：《北京交通大学学报(社会科学版)》2017年03期

【摘要】：以云南省生鲜蔬菜国际冷链物流为例,从系统的角度对国际冷链物流运作风险进行分析,找出主要风险因素,明确风险系统的内部结构及反馈机制,构建生鲜农产品国际冷链物流运作风险的系统动力学模型。模拟仿真结果显示:国际冷链物流运作前6天成本风险和时间风险较高,10天后品质风险较高;风险控制策略具有一定的滞后性,通常在2天以后才生效;当风险控制策略实施有效且风险控制成本占物流运作费用的比例在15%左右时,国际冷链物流运作绩效最高。降低风险的对策措施是:企业间加强协调合作,注重果蔬预冷环节;提前进行合理的风险评估,做好风险防治;综合考虑风险控制成本、运作风险、运作绩效三方面的均衡。
[Abstract]:Taking the international cold chain logistics of fresh vegetables in Yunnan Province as an example, this paper analyzes the operational risk of international cold chain logistics from a systematic perspective, finds out the main risk factors, and clarifies the internal structure and feedback mechanism of the risk system. The system dynamics model of international cold chain logistics risk of fresh agricultural products is constructed. The simulation results show that the cost risk and time risk are higher in the first 6 days of international cold chain logistics operation and the risk of quality is higher after 10 days, the risk control strategy has a certain lag, and usually takes effect after 2 days. When the implementation of risk control strategy is effective and the proportion of risk control cost to logistics operation costs is about 15%, the performance of international cold chain logistics operation is the highest. The countermeasures of risk reduction are: strengthening coordination and cooperation between enterprises, paying attention to fruit and vegetable pre-cooling link; carrying out reasonable risk assessment in advance, doing a good job of risk prevention and control; comprehensively considering the balance of risk control cost, operation risk and operation performance.
【作者单位】：昆明理工大学交通工程学院;昆工-中远GMS物流研究中心;昆明地铁运营有限公司;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“国际陆港演化机理及仿真研究”(71463035)
【分类号】：F326.6

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