管理者过度自信对中国上市公司跨国并购绩效的影响

发布时间：2018-07-26 14:28

【摘要】：自从2008年全球金融危机以来,中国企业海外并购数量和规模都呈现猛速增长之势,但是研究机构发布的相关报告表明,中国企业海外并购后的绩效表现却不尽如人意,不足20%的企业处于盈利状态,即存在着持续高涨的跨国并购浪潮和惨淡的并购业绩之间的悖论,然而,传统跨国并购动因在解释跨国并购悖论时存在局限性,学者们开始用行为经济学中的过度自信理论来解释跨国并购活动,并通过大量的实证研究发现,管理者过度自信是企业开展跨国并购活动的动因之一。那么,管理者过度自信与跨国并购绩效的关系如何?管理者过度自信是否是导致跨国并购绩效低下的原因之一还有待我们去验证。通过归纳相关研究文献发现,学者们关注的多是过度自信与国内并购绩效的关系,而对过度自信对跨国并购绩效影响的研究相对较少。同时,管理者在制定跨国并购决策时,会受企业内部资源的影响,那么企业自由现金流量作为企业重要的内部资源,其对跨国并购绩效的影响,以及其对过度自信心理与跨国并购绩效关系的影响同样不可忽视,因此本文在现有理论的基础上,以跨国并购和自由现金流为视角展开了研究。本文选取2008-2014年沪深两市111家公司137个海外并购事件作为研究样本,采用管理者持股变动作为过度自信心理的替代变量,选取企业发生跨国并购后一年和发生跨国并购前一年的营业利润率变化量和总资产收益率变化量作为跨国并购绩效的衡量变量,建立回归模型,验证了管理者过度自信与跨国并购绩效的关系,此外,本文对国有企业和非国有企业中,过度自信对跨国并购绩效的影响进行了比较研究。另外本文还对自由现金流对跨国并购绩效的影响,以及自由现金流对过度自信与跨国并购绩效关系的调节作用做了实证研究。通过实证研究,本文共得出以下4个研究结论:(1)管理者过度自信对我国上市公司跨国并购绩效有显著的负向影响。(2)相比于民营企业,国有企业的管理者过度自信与跨国并购绩效的负向关系更强。(3)企业自由现金流对我国上市公司跨国并购绩效有显著的负向影响。(4)自由现金流越充裕的公司,管理者过度自信与我国上市公司跨国并购绩效的负向关系越强。
[Abstract]:Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the number and scale of overseas mergers and acquisitions of Chinese enterprises have increased rapidly. However, the related reports issued by research institutions show that the performance of Chinese enterprises after overseas mergers and acquisitions is not satisfactory. Less than 20% of the enterprises are in the state of profit, that is, there is a paradox between the rising tide of transnational M & A and the poor performance of M & A. However, the traditional motivation of transnational M & A has its limitations in explaining the paradox of cross-border M & A. Scholars begin to use the theory of overconfidence in behavioral economics to explain cross-border M & A activities, and through a large number of empirical studies, it is found that manager overconfidence is one of the motivations for enterprises to carry out cross-border M & A activities. What is the relationship between managers' overconfidence and cross-border M & A performance? Whether manager overconfidence is one of the reasons for the low performance of cross-border M & A is still to be verified. It is found that scholars pay more attention to the relationship between overconfidence and domestic M & A performance, while there is relatively little research on the impact of overconfidence on cross-border M A performance. At the same time, the managers will be influenced by the internal resources when making the decision of cross-border M & A, so the free cash flow of enterprises, as an important internal resource, has an impact on the performance of cross-border M & A. And its influence on the relationship between overconfidence and cross-border M & A performance can not be ignored. Therefore, based on the existing theories, this paper makes a study from the perspective of cross-border M & A and free cash flow. In this paper, 117 overseas M & A events of 111 companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2008 to 2014 are selected as the research samples, and the change of managers' shareholding is used as the substitute variable of overconfidence. This paper selects the change of operating profit margin and the change of total return of assets one year after the cross-border M & A and the year before the cross-border M & A as the variables to measure the performance of cross-border M & A, and establishes the regression model. The relationship between manager overconfidence and cross-border M & A performance is verified. In addition, this paper makes a comparative study on the effect of overconfidence on cross-border M & A performance in state-owned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises. In addition, this paper also makes an empirical study on the influence of free cash flow on the performance of cross-border M & A and the moderating effect of free cash flow on the relationship between overconfidence and performance of cross-border M & A. Through empirical research, this paper draws the following four conclusions: (1) overconfidence of managers has a significant negative impact on the performance of cross-border mergers and acquisitions of listed companies in China. (2) compared with private enterprises, the overconfidence of managers has a significant negative impact on the performance of cross-border mergers and acquisitions of listed companies in China. (3) Free cash flow of enterprises has a significant negative impact on the performance of transnational mergers and acquisitions of listed companies in China. (4) the more abundant the free cash flow, the stronger the negative relationship between the overconfidence of managers and the performance of cross-border mergers and acquisitions. The negative relationship between managers' overconfidence and the performance of cross-border M & A of listed companies in China is stronger.
【学位授予单位】：东华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F271

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