文化传媒公司投资价值实证研究

发布时间：2018-09-03 12:13

【摘要】：随着国民个人收入的稳定增长和理财观念的普及,越来越多的人通过证券市场进行投资理财。我国的股市投资者人数已经成为世界第一,其中个人投资者占到了 80%以上。由于个人投资者对于信息的取得渠道比较有限,很多人都罔顾投资原则,而选择投机,盲目追逐热点股、政策股、消息股,因此导致财产受损。文化传媒行业由于受政策、经济、技术发展等多重利好因素的影响也一直是股民投资的热点,但文化传媒行业股票在2015年下半年发生跳水式下跌后就一蹶不振,始终保持在低点,打消了很多人的投资念头。本文中先通过对整个行业面临的外部大环境进行PEST分析,综合考虑我国政策环境、经济环境、社会环境、技术环境对文化传媒产业的影响,同时对我国当前的文化传媒行业发展现状及发展方向进行分析,得出行业内企业今后的主要动向,以及整个文化传媒行业发展趋势看好的结论。在确定整个行业仍属于朝阳行业,大有潜力可挖之后,从我国上市的文化传媒企业中选择样本企业进行详细的绩效分析,进行更加细致的投资对象筛选。本文经过对多种企业绩效评价方法的对比后,结合实际情况,选择了主成分分析法和DEA法相结合的方法全方位的对样本企业进行绩效分析。其中在使用主成分分析法时选择使用样本企业2016年第四季度的财务数据作为支撑,这是距当前投资选择最近的会计报表区间,可以详细了解当前企业的相关状况,方便投资者作出该时间点上最合适的选择。但由于文化传媒产业的特殊性,在一个较短的时间段中不确定因素的影响更大,因此使用DEA方法对样本企业的2013-2015三年的绩效进行评估,了解企业的长期经营能力以及自我纠正能力,两个方法相结合,长期与短期绩效评价相结合能更科学的对企业进行分析。使用主成分分析时选择的主要财务指标有:反映企业短期偿债能力的——流动比率、速动比率:反映盈利能力的——净资产收益率、总资产利润率、营业利润率;反映企业成长能力的——总资产增长率、净利润增长率;反映企业经营能力的——总资产周转率、存货周转率、应收账款周转率;以及代表行业特殊性的无形资产和商誉。经过分析之后可以清晰的看到各企业的综合得分、排名。使用DEA分析对企业长期以来的最主要生产单元的生产经营能力进行评估,使用的投入指标——总资产、应付职工薪酬、营业成本;产出指标——每股收益、净利润、营业收入。综合的考量了在生产时投入的人力、财力,同时选取的指标是2013-2015年度三年内的财报数据,这样可以在一个相对较长的时间段中对企业的整体经营能力进行评估,根据得到的相关绩效值数据,分析在三年中企业各方面的效率变化,选择综合效率表现较好的企业作为投资对象。通过整体+个体的分析,希望能为股市投资者,尤其是个人投资者提供切实可信的投资建议以供参考。
[Abstract]:With the steady growth of the national income and the popularity of the concept of financial management, more and more people invest and manage their finances through the securities market. The number of investors in the stock market in China has become the first in the world, and the number of individual investors accounts for more than 80%. The cultural media industry has always been a hot spot for investors due to the influence of multiple favorable factors such as policy, economic and technological development. However, the cultural media industry stocks failed to recover after a diving decline in the second half of 2015. In this paper, through PEST analysis of the external environment facing the whole industry, we consider the impact of the policy environment, economic environment, social environment and technological environment on the cultural media industry in China. At the same time, we also discuss the current situation and development direction of the cultural media industry in China. After confirming that the whole industry still belongs to the sunrise industry and has great potential to be tapped, we select the sample enterprises from the listed cultural and media enterprises to conduct a detailed performance analysis and make a more detailed investment target. After comparing the performance evaluation methods of various enterprises, this paper chooses the method of principal component analysis and DEA to analyze the performance of the sample enterprises in an all-round way. The most recent accounting statement interval from the current investment choice can help investors make the most appropriate choice at this point in time. However, due to the particularity of the cultural media industry, uncertainties in a shorter period of time have a greater impact, so the DEA method is used to sample enterprises in 2013-2015. Three-year performance evaluation, to understand the long-term operating capacity of enterprises and self-correction ability, the combination of two methods, long-term and short-term performance evaluation can be more scientific analysis of enterprises. Rate: reflecting profitability - net asset yield, total asset profit margin, operating profit margin; reflecting the growth ability of the enterprise - total asset growth rate, net profit growth rate; reflecting the ability of the enterprise - total asset turnover rate, inventory turnover rate, receivable turnover rate; and on behalf of the industry particularity of intangible assets and goodwill. After the analysis, we can clearly see the comprehensive score and ranking of the enterprises. Using DEA analysis to evaluate the production and operation ability of the most important production units for a long time, we use input indicators - Total assets, salaries payable to employees, operating costs; output indicators - earnings per share, net profit, operating income. Considering the manpower and financial resources invested in production, and choosing the financial reporting data for the three years from 2013 to 2015, this method can evaluate the overall operating capacity of the enterprise in a relatively long period of time. According to the relevant performance value data, it can analyze the efficiency changes of various aspects of the enterprise in the three years and select the comprehensive. Through the analysis of the whole and individual, we hope to provide credible investment suggestions for stock market investors, especially individual investors.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：G124

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