国际油价波动对石油公司绩效影响研究

发布时间：2018-10-04 20:23

【摘要】：石油作为国家经济建设中的主要能源之一,其价格的波动将会带来一系列连锁反应,而我国正处于高速发展的阶段,对石油的需求处于逐年递增,油价波动带来的不利影响将直接威胁到国家发展战略的推进。作为油价波动传导链的第一环,石油企业对油价波动的反应速度和应对策略直接关系到其本身的生存发展以及国家其他行业的经济稳定。最近一次油价波动起始于2014年,国际油价2014年下半年大幅下降并在2015年持续低迷,已使国际各大石油公司利润严重受挫,进而影响到整个产业链,如开采、炼油、石化等诸多行业,致使很多企业负债增多,面临破产困境,这其中也包括一些国际化大公司。石油企业如何应对油价波动,尤其是油价走低情况下的发展问题已成为关注热点之一。当前对油价波动造成经济影响的理论分析大都集中在宏观领域,本文利用数学建模将油价波动造成的经济影响深入到企业层面,为企业级决策提供参考依据。文章以企业绩效分析方法和油价波动理论为理论基础,整理了现有企业绩效评价方法及油价波动对石油公司效益、盈利能力的影响的相关文献,在对企业绩效、企业绩效评价理论、企业绩效评价方法这三个概念进行了阐述和对比,确定了本文的企业绩效测算的实证研究方法。通过分析了油价波动的历史及现状、油价波动对我国石油工业各板块影响,结合2007-2015年12家样本公司22个财务指标的面板数据,通过描述性统计分析、主成分分析法、综合绩效测算、回归分析等数学方法,量化分析国际油价波动对石油公司绩效的影响,并利用固定效应回归模型探寻油价与上下游企业绩效间的变动关系,以及利用二次曲线回归模型分析油价与各家公司年度绩效值之间的变动关系。本文结合理论与实际数据,通过分析总结,得出了油价波动和企业绩效的关系模型。利用模型,为石油企业提供了决策依据并给出建议。
[Abstract]:As one of the main energy sources in the national economic construction, the fluctuation of oil price will bring a series of chain reaction, but our country is in the stage of high speed development, the demand for oil is increasing year by year. The adverse impact of oil price fluctuation will directly threaten the promotion of national development strategy. As the first link of oil price fluctuation conduction chain, the reaction speed and coping strategy of oil enterprises to oil price fluctuation are directly related to their own survival and development as well as the economic stability of other industries in the country. The most recent oil price fluctuation began in 2014, and international oil prices dropped sharply in the second half of 2014 and continued to be depressed in 2015. This has seriously frustrated the profits of major international oil companies, which in turn has affected the entire industrial chain, such as mining and refining, Many industries, such as petrochemicals, are facing bankruptcy problems due to rising debts, including some big international companies. How to deal with the fluctuation of oil price, especially the development of low oil price, has become one of the hot spots. At present, the theoretical analysis of the economic impact of oil price fluctuation is mostly concentrated in the macro field. This paper uses mathematical modeling to make the economic impact of oil price fluctuation deep into the enterprise level, which provides a reference for enterprise decision-making. Based on the theory of enterprise performance analysis and oil price fluctuation theory, this paper collates the existing enterprise performance evaluation methods and the influence of oil price fluctuation on the efficiency and profitability of oil companies. The three concepts of enterprise performance evaluation theory and enterprise performance evaluation method are expounded and compared, and the empirical research methods of enterprise performance measurement in this paper are determined. Through analyzing the history and present situation of oil price fluctuation, the influence of oil price fluctuation on every plate of petroleum industry in China, combined with the panel data of 22 financial indexes of 12 sample companies from 2007 to 2015, through descriptive statistical analysis, principal component analysis method, Comprehensive performance measurement, regression analysis and other mathematical methods, quantitative analysis of the impact of international oil price fluctuations on the performance of oil companies, and use of fixed effect regression model to explore the relationship between oil prices and the performance of upstream and downstream enterprises. The relationship between oil price and firm's annual performance is analyzed by quadratic regression model. Based on the theoretical and practical data, the relationship model between oil price fluctuation and firm performance is obtained by analyzing and summarizing. By using the model, the decision basis and suggestions are provided for petroleum enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：西安石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.22;F406.7

【相似文献】