基于数据挖掘的电信行业客户流失管理研究
发布时间：2018-11-06 13:39
【摘要】：随着全球电信业务不断走向自由化和国际化,各国电信业市场竞争日益激烈。在我国,电信业各运营商为了争夺更多的客户,除了通过简单的价格竞争以外,还不断推出新套餐和新业务来优先获取客户资源。行业之间竞争不断加剧,双卡情况越来越严峻,这也在很大程度上加大了客户的不稳定性；另外,互联网技术的快速发展对传统的电信业务也产生了巨大的影响,分流了大量电信用户。有相关研究表明,挽留一位老客户比发展一位新客户花费更低的成本但得到的收益却更高,而要从竞争对手手里挖出客户更是难上加难。面对当前的市场竞争形势和市场态势,电信运营商必须在发展新客户的同时,全面开展客户流失管理,有效地开展存量运营,稳固自己的现有客户,不断完善客户针对性营销服务策略,通过客户关系管理的不断实践来挽留客户,从而实现企业经济效益和社会效益的最大化。目前,电信行业的客户流失管理工作目前还存在一些不足：(1)预警时客户往往已经真实离网,无法进行挽留；(2)没有进一步分析客户离网的真正原因和客户是否能留得住；(3)缺乏有针对性的挽留工作。 笼统的挽留已经不能有效地对客户进行挽留,必须根据客户离网的真正原因,及各种行为习惯、偏好等信息采取有针对性的挽留措施,真正的投其所好,才能更好的对客户进行挽留,减少客户流失。为满足这些需求,本文的主要研究内容有： (1)通过阅读大量有关数据挖掘在客户流失管理中的应用的相关文献,指出当前的研究所存在的不足及未来的发展趋势,并且对客户关系管理的理论知识和数据挖掘的主要分类算法进行了系统的介绍。 (2)利用Logistic方法对Z市移动客户的价值流失和离网流失分阶段进行建模分析,同时对客户流失规律进行分析后设定相关规则对客户的流失进行监控,模型和规则双管齐下,使预测更全面,最终得到将要流失客户的名单。 (3)针对将要流失的客户名单,分析客户流失的原因,并建立挽留机会模型,计算客户挽留成功的概率。 (4)最后从营销的角度出发,结合客户的流失原因,对可挽留的客户制定合适的营销计划。 文章通过Z市移动通信公司客户流失管理的实证分析,为数据挖掘技术在电信行业的客户关系管理和客户行为分析的应用提供了有益参考,并且对电信行业发展和维护与客户的良好关系,增强企业的竞争力也有较大的现实意义。
[Abstract]:With the liberalization and internationalization of global telecom business, the competition of telecom market is becoming more and more fierce. In China, telecom operators in order to compete for more customers, in addition to simple price competition, but also continue to introduce new packages and new services to obtain customer resources. Competition between industries is increasing, the situation of double cards is becoming more and more serious, which to a large extent increases the instability of customers; In addition, the rapid development of Internet technology has a great impact on the traditional telecommunications services, diverting a large number of telecom users. Studies have shown that it is cheaper to keep an old customer than to develop a new one, but the benefits are higher, and it is even more difficult to extract customers from competitors. In the face of the current market competition and market situation, telecom operators must, while developing new customers, comprehensively carry out customer churn management, effectively carry out stock operations, and stabilize their existing customers. Improve the customer targeted marketing service strategy, through the continuous practice of customer relationship management to retain customers, so as to maximize the economic and social benefits of enterprises. At present, there are still some shortcomings in the management of customer churn in telecommunication industry: (1) customers are often out of the net when warning, unable to retain; (2) lack of further analysis of the real reasons for the customer to leave the network and whether the customer can stay; (3) lack of targeted retention. The general retention has not been able to effectively retain the customer, must be based on the real reasons for the customer off the net, and a variety of behavior habits, preferences and other information to take targeted retention measures, In order to better retain customers, reduce the loss of customers. In order to meet these needs, the main research contents of this paper are as follows: (1) by reading a large number of related documents on the application of data mining in customer churn management, the paper points out the shortcomings of the current research and the future development trend. The theoretical knowledge of customer relationship management and the main classification algorithms of data mining are introduced systematically. (2) modeling and analyzing the value loss and off-net loss of mobile customers in Z city by using Logistic method. At the same time, after analyzing the law of customer churn, the relevant rules are set up to monitor the loss of customers. Make the forecast more comprehensive and finally get the list of customers that will be lost. (3) based on the list of customers that will be lost, the reasons of customer turnover are analyzed, and the retention opportunity model is established to calculate the probability of customer retention success. (4) finally, from the marketing point of view, combined with the reason of customer loss, we can make appropriate marketing plan for the customer who can be retained. Through the empirical analysis of customer churn management in Z City Mobile Communication Company, this paper provides a useful reference for the application of data mining technology in customer relationship management and customer behavior analysis in telecommunication industry. It is also of great practical significance to the development and maintenance of telecommunication industry and the maintenance of good relationship with customers and the enhancement of the competitiveness of enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F274;F626
本文编号：2314437
[Abstract]:With the liberalization and internationalization of global telecom business, the competition of telecom market is becoming more and more fierce. In China, telecom operators in order to compete for more customers, in addition to simple price competition, but also continue to introduce new packages and new services to obtain customer resources. Competition between industries is increasing, the situation of double cards is becoming more and more serious, which to a large extent increases the instability of customers; In addition, the rapid development of Internet technology has a great impact on the traditional telecommunications services, diverting a large number of telecom users. Studies have shown that it is cheaper to keep an old customer than to develop a new one, but the benefits are higher, and it is even more difficult to extract customers from competitors. In the face of the current market competition and market situation, telecom operators must, while developing new customers, comprehensively carry out customer churn management, effectively carry out stock operations, and stabilize their existing customers. Improve the customer targeted marketing service strategy, through the continuous practice of customer relationship management to retain customers, so as to maximize the economic and social benefits of enterprises. At present, there are still some shortcomings in the management of customer churn in telecommunication industry: (1) customers are often out of the net when warning, unable to retain; (2) lack of further analysis of the real reasons for the customer to leave the network and whether the customer can stay; (3) lack of targeted retention. The general retention has not been able to effectively retain the customer, must be based on the real reasons for the customer off the net, and a variety of behavior habits, preferences and other information to take targeted retention measures, In order to better retain customers, reduce the loss of customers. In order to meet these needs, the main research contents of this paper are as follows: (1) by reading a large number of related documents on the application of data mining in customer churn management, the paper points out the shortcomings of the current research and the future development trend. The theoretical knowledge of customer relationship management and the main classification algorithms of data mining are introduced systematically. (2) modeling and analyzing the value loss and off-net loss of mobile customers in Z city by using Logistic method. At the same time, after analyzing the law of customer churn, the relevant rules are set up to monitor the loss of customers. Make the forecast more comprehensive and finally get the list of customers that will be lost. (3) based on the list of customers that will be lost, the reasons of customer turnover are analyzed, and the retention opportunity model is established to calculate the probability of customer retention success. (4) finally, from the marketing point of view, combined with the reason of customer loss, we can make appropriate marketing plan for the customer who can be retained. Through the empirical analysis of customer churn management in Z City Mobile Communication Company, this paper provides a useful reference for the application of data mining technology in customer relationship management and customer behavior analysis in telecommunication industry. It is also of great practical significance to the development and maintenance of telecommunication industry and the maintenance of good relationship with customers and the enhancement of the competitiveness of enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F274;F626
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