科研型号项目计划与控制管理和风险管理的研究

发布时间：2018-06-28 01:06

本文选题：科研型号项目 + 项目管理　；参考：《上海交通大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：“科学技术是第一生产力”,科研型号项目的研制水平是国家经济、科技、军事、文化发达与否的重要标志。进入21世纪以来,国家对科研型号项目的投入逐年增加,面对着来自诸多方面的挑战,对科研项目的管理水平有了更高的要求。随着知识经济的来临和高新技术产品的迅速发展,如何在有限的资源条件下,为保证科研项目的质量、进度、成本达到最优化,同时尽量减少项目失败的风险,成为困扰科研管理人员的一个难题。科研项目管理是一个系统工程,它是项目管理技术与具体科研项目相结合的产品,它不但强调需要项目管理的技术,同时项目管理技术必须与具体的科研相结合才能产生巨大的社会、经济和技术效益。本文在分析了目前科研型号项目管理的实际状况的基础上,结合科研型号项目管理与现代项目管理的特点,针对现有的管理体制存在的问题并进行分析,作者认为:从根本来讲,现在的科研项目管理属于项目制管理,与项目管理仅有一字之差,却体现管理方法的天差地别。现有的管理方法仍然属于粗放型的管理,暴露出工作策划与研制能力生产能力脱节、计划与进度控制联系不紧密、风险管理滞后于技术和质量管理等问题。针对上述问题,作者提出了一个应用于科研型号项目的计划和控制管理模式——闭环过程模式。依据该模式,计划和控制管理第一步应该做的就是确定技术目标和工作范围,制定工作分解结构图来完成技术目标,而且必须根据第一步确定的内容来编制工作计划,每一项工作内容中都要设置安全资源,并与计划中每一个相关利益者进行充分的沟通协调,最终确定计划。在控制管理中,作者结合控制系统原理的稳、准、快特性,着重提出了动态控制的概念,并提出了基线比较法、缓冲区管理和横向比较法。本文中,作者将这些编制、优化和控制方法应用到实际工作中,找到关键路径,设置合适的缓冲区。进度出现拖延时没有盲目的调整计划,使项目更加稳定地进行着。风险管理是研究风险发生规律和风险控制技术的一门管理学科,包括风险识别、风险预测、风险评价以及风险处理,并在此基础上优化组合各种风险管理技术。作者认为,对于动态的风险,要用动态的识别方法。基于此观点,作者提出了一种风险管理模式,即全周期分段风险管理模式。在此管理模式中,分析总结了在方案论证阶段、工程研制阶段、定型阶段以及各种大型的飞行试验中风险识别的重点,并分别采用了故障树分析法、头脑风暴法、裕度分析法和飞行时序动作分析法进行风险识别;识别出风险因子后还继续采用评价基准法和风险分级法来对风险因子进行分析。然后,作者分别提出了对于不可接受技术风险项目的控制方法和对于可接受技术风险项目的控制方法。本文结合具体的项目说明采取了相应的风险识别、分析和控制方法后,识别出项目的14项风险因子,并对其进行了有效地控制,历时两年的项目阶段研制按时完成。
[Abstract]:"Science and technology are the first productive forces", the level of research and model projects is an important symbol of the national economy, science, technology, military and cultural development. Since twenty-first Century, the country's investment in scientific research projects has increased year by year, facing challenges from many aspects and higher requirements for the management level of scientific research projects. With the advent of the knowledge economy and the rapid development of high and new technology products, how to ensure the optimization of the quality, progress and cost of scientific research projects and minimize the risk of failure of the project under the limited resources conditions has become a difficult problem for scientific research managers. In combination with specific scientific research projects, it emphasizes not only the technology that needs project management, but also the combination of project management technology with specific scientific research in order to produce huge social, economic and technical benefits.
On the basis of analyzing the actual situation of the project management of scientific research model and combining the characteristics of scientific research project management and modern project management, this paper aims at the existing problems and analyses the existing management system. The author thinks that, fundamentally, the current scientific research project management belongs to the project management, and the project management is only one. The difference in words reflects the difference between the management methods. The existing management methods still belong to the extensive management, exposing the disjointed work planning and production capacity, the lack of close connection between plan and schedule control, and the lag of risk management to the problems of technology and quality management.
In view of the above problems, the author puts forward a plan and control management mode, closed loop process model, which is applied to the project of scientific research model. According to this model, the first step of planning and control management is to determine the technical goal and scope of work and work out the work breakdown structure diagram to accomplish the technical goal, and must be based on the first step. We should set up the work plan, set up the security resources in every work, and make full communication and coordination with every stakeholder in the plan, and finally determine the plan. In the control management, the author puts forward the concept of dynamic control with the emphasis on the concept of dynamic control, and puts forward the baseline ratio. In this paper, the author applies these methods of programming, optimization and control to the actual work, finding the key path, setting the appropriate buffer zone. The schedule has been delayed without a blind adjustment plan, making the project more stable.
Risk management is a management discipline that studies the law of risk occurrence and risk control technology, including risk identification, risk prediction, risk assessment and risk management, and on this basis, it optimizes the combination of various risk management techniques. The author believes that dynamic identification is necessary for dynamic risk. Based on this view, the author puts forward a new method. The model of risk management is the full cycle segment risk management model. In this management model, the key points of risk identification are summarized in the stage of project demonstration, engineering development stage, setting stage and various large flight tests, and fault tree analysis, brainstorming, margin analysis and flight timing action are used respectively. The method of analysis is used to identify the risk. After identifying the risk factors, the risk factors are analyzed by the evaluation standard method and the risk classification method. Then, the author puts forward the control methods for the unacceptable technical risk projects and the control methods for the acceptable technical risk items. After the corresponding risk identification, analysis and control methods, the 14 risk factors of the project are identified and effective control is carried out. The project stage of two years is completed on time.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：G311

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