基于出行链的居民行为决策影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-06-18 14:57

本文选题：活动分析法 + 出行链logistic回归模型　；参考：《城市发展研究》2010年10期

【摘要】：城市空间与居民行为有着密不可分的内在联系,活动分析法(Activity-based Approach)是将时间与空间、活动与移动、选择与制约结合起来分析人类行为的有效手段。基于出行链(Tour-based)分析思想,以2007年北京城市居民活动日志调查数据为基础,运用Logistic回归模型和次序Logit模型对居民工作日出行的多目的性、交通方式机动化程度的决策影响因素进行分析。结果表明,个人社会经济属性对居民出行链的决策具有显著的影响;随着居住空间由中心向外缘扩展,居民出行的多目的性增加、机动化程度提高,扩展至五环以外有所回落;活动时间、移动时间、出行距离对出行链的多目的化、交通工具机动化具有正向影响,晚高峰的机动化程度较高。
[Abstract]:There is a close relationship between urban space and resident behavior. Activity-based approach is an effective way to combine time and space, activity and movement, choice and restriction to analyze human behavior. Based on the analysis of travel chain Tour-based. based on the survey data of Beijing residents' activity log in 2007, this paper uses Logistic regression model and order logit model to analyze the multi-purpose of residents' travel on weekdays. The factors influencing the degree of motorization of traffic mode are analyzed. The results show that the individual social and economic attributes have a significant impact on the decision-making of the residents' trip chain, and with the expansion of the living space from the center to the outer edge, the multi-purpose of the residents' travel increases, the degree of motorization increases, and the expansion to the outside of the five rings falls back. The activity time, moving time and travel distance have a positive effect on the multi-purpose of travel chain, and the motorization of vehicle has a positive effect, and the motorization degree of late rush hour is higher.
【作者单位】：北京大学城市与环境学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(40671058) 科技部创新方法工作资助(2007FY140800)
【分类号】：C934

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