基于前景理论的多阶段直觉模糊数决策方法

发布时间：2018-07-28 10:54

【摘要】：针对航空部队事故预警方案选择中指标权重未知、指标值为直觉模糊数的多阶段直觉模糊数决策问题,考虑决策者风险偏好引起的指标值的动态变化,提出了一种基于前景理论的多阶段决策方法。该方法根据各阶段期望均值可能度的比较确定阶段变化特征,参考直觉模糊数距离公式设置动态参考点,然后集结收益和损失以整体前景值最大化为目标建立规划模型得到指标的动态权重,计算方案综合前景值并排序。最后通过MATLAB仿真实例验证了该方法的有效性。
[Abstract]:In view of the multi-stage intuitionistic fuzzy number decision making problem in which the index weight is unknown and the index value is intuitionistic fuzzy number, the dynamic change of the index value caused by the decision maker's risk preference is considered. A multi-stage decision-making method based on foreground theory is proposed. According to the comparison of the expected mean probability of each stage, the method determines the phase variation characteristics, and sets the dynamic reference points with reference to the intuitionistic fuzzy number distance formula. Then aggregate the gains and losses with the goal of maximizing the overall foreground value to set up a programming model to get the dynamic weight of the index and calculate the comprehensive foreground value of the scheme and sort it. Finally, the effectiveness of the method is verified by MATLAB simulation.
【作者单位】：空军工程大学装备管理与安全工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71401174)
【分类号】：C934;E274.1

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