基于BDN和Multi-Agent的突发事件应急风险决策方法研究

发布时间：2018-12-27 06:37

【摘要】：突发事件危害巨大,对社会经济发展、人民生活水平以及社会秩序产生了严重的危害。突发事件的应对十分复杂,必须要多个决策主体共同进行决策从而提高决策的准确性;由于突发事件具有不确定性,参与应急的决策主体、决策主体所做的决策、备选的决策方案集以及它们之间的关系是不确定的。本文所要研究的问题就是在应对突发事件时,考虑决策主体、决策以及决策方案之间关系的不确定性特征,如何降低决策的风险,进行应急风险决策。首先,为了描述多主体参与的应急风险决策问题,本文引入Agent思想,用于表示单个决策主体;采用贝叶斯决策网络(BDN),用于描述决策主体、决策以及决策方案之间的关系;其次,考虑决策主体、决策、决策方案以及它们之间关系的不确定产生的风险问题,提出多属性的决策方案选择方法。该方法采用BDN推理和多Agent交互以获得满足当前决策目标的多主体的备选方案集合。在此基础上,根据决策方案的多属性计算单个方案在应对突发事件不同情景的损益值,基于方案损益值和方案间关系强度计算各备选方案集合的综合评价值,进而选择最优的方案集合。最后,案例分析的结果验证了本文提出的应急风险决策方法的可行性与合理性。
[Abstract]:The sudden events have great harm to the social and economic development, the people's living standard and the social order. The emergency response is very complex, so it is necessary for multiple decision makers to make decisions together in order to improve the accuracy of decision-making. Because of the uncertainty of unexpected events, the decision makers who participate in the emergency, the decisions made by the decision makers, the set of alternative decision plans and the relationship between them are uncertain. The problem to be studied in this paper is how to reduce the risk of decision-making and make emergency decision by considering the uncertain characteristics of the relationship among decision makers, decision makers and decision schemes when dealing with unexpected events. First of all, in order to describe the emergency risk decision problem involving multiple agents, this paper introduces the idea of Agent, which is used to represent a single decision body, and uses Bayesian decision network (BDN), to describe the relationship among decision makers, decision makers and decision schemes. Secondly, considering the risks arising from the uncertainty of decision makers, decision schemes and their relationships, a multi-attribute decision scheme selection method is proposed. In this method, BDN reasoning and multi-Agent interaction are used to obtain the set of multi-agent alternatives that satisfy the current decision objectives. On this basis, according to the multiple attributes of the decision scheme, the profit and loss value of a single scheme in response to different scenarios is calculated, and the comprehensive evaluation value of each alternative set is calculated on the basis of the scheme profit and loss value and the strength of the relationship between the options. Then the optimal scheme set is selected. Finally, the result of case study verifies the feasibility and rationality of the proposed method.
【作者单位】：华中科技大学自动化学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学类商业资助项目(71671071,71271094)
【分类号】：C934

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