中国适应气候变化政策评价

发布时间：2018-03-14 04:22

本文选题：气候变化　切入点：适应　出处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2015年09期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：自2007年国务院发布《国家应对气候变化方案》以来,我国政府制定并实施了一系列适应气候变化政策,有力推动了我国适应气候变化工作的快速发展。本文通过对我国已经发布的适应政策进行梳理,采用适应政策组成要素评估方法,对适应政策的目标设定、适应能力与资源评估、决策、实施与评估等4个阶段进行系统评估,结果表明:根据适应政策要素组成评估框架,单个适应政策可获得的最高综合评分为38分,我国发布的8项针对性的适应气候变化政策平均得分为15.8分,约为总分的41.6%,与美国、英国和澳大利亚的57项适应政策平均评分为总分的37%相当,整体处于相近水平。从适应政策制定的四个阶段来看,适应政策的目标设定平均为11.5分,适应能力与资源评估平均为2.6分,决策平均为6.6分,实施与评估平均为9.2分。适应政策的目标设定较清晰,适应能力与资源评估是主要的短板。同时,提出我国适应政策仍存在的问题包括:我国适应政策的目标与对应的适应能力与适应资源不匹配,需要加强适应气候变化人力资源、资金、社会资本、自然资源和实物资本等方面的投入。我国适应政策决策重视利益相关方和影响评估基础,但适应政策中忽视了对非气候因素的评估,对当前气候变化领域的科学假设和不确定性考虑不足,对适应决策很关键的未来风险评估仍欠缺。适应政策推广部署较好,我国部门适应政策向下传达渠道明确,政策主要由省级政府和相关机构负责实施,实施机制相对较完善,但监督与评估不足,适应政策多数对监督机制、成效评估没有明确的表述。
[Abstract]:Since 2007, when the State Council issued the National Plan to deal with Climate change, the Chinese government has formulated and implemented a series of policies to adapt to climate change. It can promote the rapid development of adaptation to climate change in our country. Through combing the adaptation policies that have been published in our country, and adopting the method of assessment of the components of adaptation policies, this paper sets the objectives of adaptation policies. The four phases of adaptation capacity and resources assessment, decision-making, implementation and assessment were systematically assessed. The results showed that the maximum comprehensive score for individual adaptation policies was 38, according to the assessment framework composed of adaptation policy elements. The average score of the eight targeted policies on adaptation to climate change in China is 15.8, which is about 41.6 percent of the total score, which is equivalent to the average score of 57 adaptation policies in the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia, which is 37% of the total score. From the four stages of adaptation policy development, the average target setting of adaptation policy is 11.5 points, the average assessment of adaptability and resources is 2.6 points, and the average decision-making score is 6.6 points. The average implementation and evaluation score is 9.2. The target setting of adaptation policy is clear, and the assessment of adaptability and resources is the main weakness. At the same time, It is pointed out that the existing problems of China's adaptation policy include: the mismatch between the target of our country's adaptation policy and the corresponding adaptation capacity and the adaptation resources, and the need to strengthen the human resources, funds and social capital for adaptation to climate change. Inputs such as natural resources and physical capital. Our adaptation policy decisions focus on stakeholders and the basis of impact assessment, but adaptation policies neglect the assessment of non-climatic factors. The current scientific assumptions and uncertainties in the field of climate change are not considered enough, and the future risk assessment, which is critical to adaptation decision-making, is still lacking. The policy is mainly carried out by the provincial government and the relevant institutions, the implementation mechanism is relatively perfect, but the supervision and evaluation are insufficient, and most of the adaptation policies have no clear description of the supervision mechanism and the effectiveness evaluation.
【作者单位】：中国气象科学研究院;中国21世纪议程管理中心;清华大学环境学院;
【基金】：国家科技支撑计划“气候变化对农业生产影响与风险评估技术”(编号:2012BAC19B10);国家科技支撑计划“气候变化谈判关键议题的支撑技术研究”(编号:2012BAC20B04);国家科技支撑计划“国家适应气候变化方法学研究和综合技术体系构建”(编号:2012BAC09B04) 中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目“我国农业领域适应气候变化技术清单与研发部署研究”(编号:1113113)
【分类号】：P467

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