矿产项目境外投资风险分析

发布时间：2017-12-27 18:25

本文关键词：矿产项目境外投资风险分析　出处：《天津大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济的快速发展，国民经济对于矿产资源的需求量逐年提高.国家也高度重视，鼓励企业到境外投资矿产行业。因此对于境外投资风险的控制成为企业的研究难题。本篇文章在对矿业境外市场的认识和分析的基础上,结合传统的理论,阐述了投资风险分析的理论和方法,建立矿产投资风险分析模型。于此同时，运用历史数据对上述方法和推论做出合理的验证，，论文对矿产资源的属性、价值和矿产投资环境、财务状况进行了系统的分析。最后通过投资项目实例,结合一些定性及定量的分析方法比如：层次分析法、蒙特卡洛模拟、模糊综合评价法等对矿产境外投资项目风险评价模型进行了验证。通过对理论的研究学习以及实践操作，分析得出结论：该境外投资项目的风险等级在可行性阶段接近于较低风险。并且对未来十年铁矿石价格进行预测，结果表明未来十年的铁矿石均价为148.78美元，远高于财务分析预估价格100美元，说明项目分析的数据较为准确，项目前景比较乐观。该篇论文的意义在于在项目可行性分析阶段，对项目技术、运行条件、经济、社会、政治等各方面风险因素做出识别、分析和评价，用科学、合理的理论方法指导实际工作，尽可能的降低项目风险，提高投资决策的水平，为企业境外投资提供有效的分析方法和客观准确的依据。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy, the demand for mineral resources in the national economy has increased year by year. The state also attaches great importance to encouraging enterprises to invest in mineral industry overseas. Therefore, the control of foreign investment risk has become a research problem for enterprises. Based on the understanding and analysis of mining overseas market, combined with traditional theories, this paper expounds the theory and method of investment risk analysis, and establishes a risk analysis model for mineral investment. At the same time, historical data is used to make reasonable verification of the above methods and inferences. The paper makes a systematic analysis of the attributes, value and mineral investment environment and financial status of mineral resources. Finally, some qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, such as analytic hierarchy process, Monte Carlo simulation and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, are applied to verify the risk assessment model of mineral overseas investment projects. Through theoretical research and practical operation, it is concluded that the risk level of overseas investment project is close to lower risk in the feasibility stage. And predict the iron ore price in the next ten years. The result shows that the average price of iron ore in the next ten years will be 148.78 US dollars, which is much higher than that of the financial analysis and the estimated price is 100 dollars, which indicates that the data of the project analysis is more accurate and the prospect of the project is more optimistic. The papers of the significance lies in the phase of project feasibility analysis, project technology, operating conditions, economic, social and political aspects of the risk factors identification, analysis and evaluation, and guide practice with theory of scientific and reasonable method, to reduce the risk of project as far as possible, improve the investment decision-making level, provide the analysis method effective and accurate basis for overseas investment enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.1;F125

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