中国制造业成本竞争优势——基于ARIMA与PSONN组合模型的预测分析

发布时间：2018-01-01 16:16

本文关键词：中国制造业成本竞争优势——基于ARIMA与PSONN组合模型的预测分析　出处：《系统工程》2014年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：提出了一个基于单整自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)与神经网络模型(PSONN)的成本竞争优势预测模型。将成本竞争优势序列分解成线性结构序列以及非线性结构残差序列,前者用ARIMA模型来预测,残差部分用PSONN模型来进行非线性预测。预测结果表明,组合模型的预测精度显著高于单个线性或非线性模型的预测结果,同时结果也表明了中国制造业在未来八年内仍然保有成本竞争优势,但是来自生产效率方面的贡献在降低,提示制造业需从单纯强调劳动力成本的发展模式过渡到以提高劳动生产率为重心的道路上,采用"适度增长"的劳动力成本与"高速增长"的劳动生产率相结合的发展模式。
[Abstract]:A moving average model based on a single integral autoregressive model (ARIMA) and a neural network model (PSONN) are proposed. The cost competitive advantage sequence is decomposed into linear structure series and nonlinear structural residual sequence. ARIMA model is used to predict the former, and PSONN model is used to predict the residual part. The prediction accuracy of the combined model is significantly higher than that of the single linear or nonlinear model, and the results also show that the Chinese manufacturing industry will retain the cost competitive advantage in the next eight years. However, the contribution from the production efficiency is decreasing, suggesting that the manufacturing industry should transition from the development mode of emphasizing the labor cost to the road of focusing on improving labor productivity. The development model of "moderate growth" of labor cost and "high growth" of labor productivity is adopted.
【作者单位】：江苏开放大学;南京航空航天大学;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点资助项目(11AGL001) 安徽省高校自然重点资助项目(KJ2013A004) 安徽省自然基金资助项目(1308085MG112) 2014年度江苏高校“青蓝工程”优秀青年骨干教师项目
【分类号】：F424;F406.7
【正文快照】： 1引言西方国家高速发展的经济带来了高生活标准:高工资、良好的福利和完善的社会保障体系,同时,企业承担了较高的劳动力成本,这为发展中国家利用劳动比较优势参与国际贸易提供了机遇。长期以来,我国利用劳动比较优势出口劳动密集型产品,以价格优势占领了国际市场,对外贸易持续

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