国电电力的投资价值分析

发布时间：2018-01-19 12:22

本文关键词： 国电电力投资价值 EVA估值市盈率市净率　出处：《华北电力大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：证券作为金融市场的重要组成部分,在国家的经济发展中发挥着重要的作用。它将投资者、管理者和融资者联系起来,它不仅为企业提供了融资渠道,也为投资者提供创造价值的空间。近年来,我国的证券市场蓬勃发展,投入股票市场的投资者也越来越多,但大部分投资者仍处于盲目跟风的状态。2008年中国股市崩盘使得大批投资者损失惨重,然而那些遵循价值投资理念的投资者损失较小,这让股票市场的投资者更加认识到价值投资的重要意义。我国证券市场尚处于初级阶段,证券投资者应树立正确的投资理念,依据价值投资理论,不盲目跟风,以免受到庄家或者大户的操纵。电力行业是国家的基础行业,电力行业的发展关系到国家的方方面面。国电电力发展股份有限公司是中国国电集团公司控股的全国性上市发电公司,是中国国电集团公司在资本市场的直接融资窗口和实施整体改制的平台。本文以国电电力发展股份有限公司为研究对象,通过从宏观经济、电力行业、公司三方面对国电电力进行自上而下的分析。首先,本文参考了大量国内外有关投资价值分析的文献资料,对投资价值概念进行了深入的分析和介绍。在投资价值的各种分析模型中,选出国电电力发展股份有限公司投资价值分析中应用的模型,即经济增加值法、市盈率法和市净率法。其次,本文分析了近些年国家宏观经济变化情况,对2013年国家宏观经济走势做出预测。通过分析国家宏观经济和电力行业的密切关系和电力体制改革进程,进而预测电力行业发展走势及其对发电企业的影响。再次,本文运用迈克尔.波特的五力模型对国电电力的竞争环境进行分析,分析认为供应商竞争和行业内企业间竞争是国电电力的主要竞争因素。本文对2009-2012年国电电力的主要财务数据进行分析,并对比同类发电企业分析其偿债能力、营运能力、盈利能力,分析认为国电电力表现了很好的竞争力。最后,本文运用EVA估值法、市盈率法、市净率法定量评估国电电力发展股份有限公司股票的投资价值,结合宏观分析和行业分析,进一步提出投资建议和主要的风险点。根据本论文的分析得出,国电电力股票适合买入。
[Abstract]:As an important part of financial market, securities plays an important role in the national economic development. It connects investors, managers and financiers. It not only provides financing channels for enterprises. In recent years, the securities market of our country is booming, and more and more investors put into the stock market. But most investors are still blindly following the bandwagon. The 2008 Chinese stock market crash left large numbers of investors with heavy losses, while those who followed the philosophy of value investment lost less. This makes investors in stock market realize the importance of value investment. The stock market of our country is still in the initial stage, securities investors should set up the correct investment idea, according to the theory of value investment, do not follow the trend blindly. Avoid being manipulated by the dealer or the big one. The electric power industry is the basic industry of the country, and the development of the electric power industry is related to all aspects of the country. It is the direct financing window of China Guodian Group Company in the capital market and the platform to implement the overall restructuring. This paper takes the National Power Development Co., Ltd. as the research object, through the macro-economic, power industry. Three aspects of the company to the national electricity power from the top-down analysis. First of all, this paper refers to a large number of domestic and foreign literature on investment value analysis, in-depth analysis and introduction of the concept of investment value. In the various models of investment value analysis. The models used in the investment value analysis of Guodian Electric Power Development Co., Ltd are selected, which are the economic added value method, the price-earnings ratio method and the price-to-book ratio method. Secondly, this paper analyzes the state macroeconomic changes in recent years. In 2013, the state macroeconomic trend was forecasted. Through the analysis of the close relationship between the national macroeconomic and the power industry and the process of power system reform. Then forecast the development trend of power industry and its impact on power generation enterprises. Thirdly, this paper uses Michael Porter's five-force model to analyze the competitive environment of Guodian Power. It is considered that supplier competition and competition among enterprises in the industry are the main competitive factors of national electric power. This paper analyzes the main financial data of national electric power from 2009 to 2012. Compared with the similar power generation enterprises, the paper analyzes its solvency, operating capacity and profitability, and points out that the national power company has a good competitiveness. Finally, this paper uses EVA valuation method, price-to-earnings ratio method and price-to-book ratio method to evaluate the investment value of the stock in Guodian Electric Power Development Co., Ltd. combined with macro analysis and industry analysis. According to the analysis of this paper, it is concluded that the stock of Guodian Power Company is suitable for buying.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.51;F426.61

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