基于离散选择的技术扩散元胞自动机模型

发布时间：2018-01-24 07:10

本文关键词： 分散型可再生能源技术扩散离散选择元胞自动机　出处：《北京理工大学学报(社会科学版)》2014年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：传统的基于Bass模型的各类技术扩散模型簇并没有有效地刻画采用者收入因素等个人特质的影响,也无法描述消费者中途放弃采用情形下的扩散规律。为此,将离散选择模型引入到创新扩散研究领域,用以研究消费者个人特质对技术扩散进程的影响,并将其与元胞自动机相结合,建立了一个创新扩散混合模型。运用太阳能热水器(SWH)在我国农村地区的扩散情况进行仿真分析,发现模型能够较好地拟合SWH的实际扩散状况并且很好地解释了收入水平等个人特质对扩散进程的影响路径。此外,与传统理论不同,研究还发现扩散进程并不与口头交流信息量呈简单的直线相关关系,而是存在着一个临界值,超过该值后,口头交流对扩散进程的影响力将日益减弱。
[Abstract]:The traditional clusters of technology diffusion models based on Bass model do not effectively describe the influence of individual characteristics such as the income factors of the adopters. Nor can we describe the diffusion law under the situation that consumers give up their adoption. Therefore, the discrete choice model is introduced into the field of innovation diffusion to study the influence of consumer's personal characteristics on the process of technology diffusion. Combining it with cellular automata, a hybrid model of innovation diffusion is established, and the diffusion situation in rural areas of China is simulated and analyzed by using solar water heater (SWH). It is found that the model can fit the actual diffusion situation of SWH and explain the influence path of personal characteristics such as income level on diffusion process. In addition, it is different from traditional theory. It is also found that the diffusion process does not have a simple linear correlation with the amount of oral communication information, but there exists a critical value, beyond which the influence of oral communication on the diffusion process will be weakened day by day.
【作者单位】：中国矿业大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71003097,71373261) 教育部人文社会科学基金资助项目(09YJC630218)
【分类号】：F426.8;F273.1
【正文快照】： 技术创新扩散是指创新技术经由特定的渠道随时间的不断推移在某一社会团体的成员中传播的过程[1]。只有当新技术被广泛利用时,才能使该技术创新的经济效益最大限度地发挥出来,因此,创新扩散是技术实现产业化的关键环节,正确地认识技术创新扩散规律对产品的营销策略以及市场的

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