中韩自由贸易区的建立对中韩机电产品贸易的影响研究

发布时间：2018-02-11 21:24

本文关键词： 中韩自由贸易区机电产品贸易自由化一般均衡 GTAP模型　出处：《中南大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：摘要：区域经济一体化近几年来发展迅速,构建自由贸易区已成为了推动区域经济合作和克服经济一体化负面效应的最有效、最便捷和相对容易的途径。在此背景下,中国与韩国的自由贸易区谈判于2012年正式启动。机电产品贸易是两国贸易自由化谈判中一个极具争议的方面,同时也是中韩双边贸易最主要的组成部分。因此,有必要就中韩自贸区对双边机电产品贸易产生的经济效应进行深入研究。本文基于1992-2012年中韩经贸数据,从竞争性、互补性、技术复杂度和产业内贸易四个角度全面考察了中韩机电产品贸易的结构特征和发展趋势,重新审视了贸易竞争和合作的格局。结果表明,韩国占绝对优势的局面已发生了改变,中国机电产品竞争力逐渐增强,部分产品竞争力已超过韩国,但总体而言双边贸易仍具有很强的互补性,产品技术差距逐渐缩小,产业内贸易趋高,双边贸易潜力巨大。本文随后运用GTAP模型分析了中韩贸易自由化对双边机电产品贸易的影响。研究结果表明,中韩贸易自由化对两国宏观经济和贸易的影响利大于弊；双边贸易自由化带来的贸易条件改善和出口增加将促进我国社会福利的提高；我国机电产业的总产出和总出口都会扩张,且主要体现在对韩国出口的增加；双边贸易自由化将形成显著的贸易创造和贸易转移效果,其中日本和美国受到贸易转移的影响程度最深；总体而言中韩自由贸易区的构建将为我国宏观经济和机电产品贸易的发展创造新的契机。
[Abstract]:Abstract: with the rapid development of regional economic integration in recent years, the construction of free trade area has become the most effective, convenient and relatively easy way to promote regional economic cooperation and overcome the negative effects of economic integration. The free trade zone negotiations between China and South Korea were officially launched on 2012. Trade in mechanical and electrical products is a controversial aspect of the trade liberalization negotiations between the two countries, and it is also the most important part of bilateral trade between China and South Korea. It is necessary to study the economic effect of China-Korea Free Trade Zone on bilateral trade in mechanical and electrical products. Based on the economic and trade data between China and South Korea from 1992 to 2012, this paper comprehensively examines the structural characteristics and development trend of the trade in mechanical and electrical products between China and South Korea from the perspectives of competitiveness, complementarity, technological complexity and intra-industry trade. The results show that the situation of Korea's absolute advantage has changed, and the competitiveness of China's mechanical and electrical products has been gradually strengthened, and some products' competitiveness has surpassed that of South Korea. But in general, bilateral trade is still highly complementary, the gap between products and technology is gradually narrowing, the intra-industry trade is becoming higher, and the potential of bilateral trade is huge. This paper then uses GTAP model to analyze the impact of Sino-Korean trade liberalization on bilateral trade in mechanical and electrical products. The results show that the impact of Sino-Korean trade liberalization on the macroeconomic and trade between China and South Korea outweighs the disadvantages. The improvement of terms of trade and the increase of export brought by bilateral trade liberalization will promote the improvement of China's social welfare, the total output and total export of China's mechanical and electrical industry will expand, and the increase of export to Korea will be the main manifestation. Bilateral trade liberalization will result in significant effects of trade creation and trade transfer, among which Japan and the United States are the most affected by trade transfer. In general, the construction of China-Korea Free Trade area will create a new opportunity for the development of China's macroeconomic and mechanical and electrical products trade.
【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F416.6;F752.6;F753.126

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