我国铁矿石进口量与相关经济指标的数量关系研究

发布时间：2018-03-01 13:17

本文关键词： 我国铁矿石进口量我国粗钢产量铁矿石进口价格协整检验格兰杰因果关系检验　出处：《中国海洋大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来，我国国民经济快速稳健发展，城镇化进程不断加快，钢铁作为“工业粮食”需求量不断加大，钢铁业作为基础产业，支撑了我国经济建设的同时，对原材料——铁矿石也产生了巨大的需求。由于我国国内铁矿石品质与地理分布问题，国产矿的生产不能有效满足我国钢铁生产的需求，因此铁矿石需求只能靠进口来满足。我国是钢铁生产大国，也是铁矿石进口大国，自2003年以来，我国铁矿石进口就保持着高数量高价位的态势。经济的发展、基础建设的需要使我国对铁矿石保持着较大的需求，国际铁矿石贸易市场上我国铁矿石需求的不断增长影响了国际铁矿石价格，，国际铁矿石市场价格的上涨在一定程度上受“中国因素”的影响，也就是说，我国铁矿石进口量的不断增长，是国际铁矿石价格维持着稳步上升的重要原因之一。铁矿石价格是生产钢铁产品成本中最大的部分，约为总成本的40%，因此，铁矿石价格的上涨，导致钢铁产品成本上升、钢铁企业利润下降。与此同时我国国内的统计数据显示，表示我国钢铁需求的粗钢产量增长趋势不甚明显。同时我国国内港口的铁矿石库存量持续维持在一个相对较高的水平。早有学者分析，我国目前铁矿石存在盲目进口、囤积图利的情况，这种情况的存在受损的只会是我国钢铁企业及其下游产业。因此，分析影响我国铁矿石进口量的相关因素并判断目前我国铁矿石进口量的发展趋势是否合理是本文的重要任务。本文首先利用计量经济学方法对2007年1月到2012年12月我国铁矿石进口量、我国粗钢产量、我国铁矿石进口价格、国际铁矿石运价、我国制造业采购经理指数等经济指标的月度数据进行因果关系检验以及模型估计。然后根据回归结果分析我国铁矿石进口量与各相关经济指标之间的数量关系，研究各指标变动对我国铁矿石进口数量的影响，并从中观察目前铁矿石进口现状及存在问题，预测铁矿石进口数量的变化发展及对我国经济造成的影响。最后，根据目前我国铁矿石进口贸易中存在的问题，以及相关贸易因素的影响分析，本文提出了对进口铁矿石贸易发展具有实践性的建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the rapid and steady development of our national economy, the accelerating process of urbanization, the increasing demand for iron and steel as "industrial grain" and the steel industry as the basic industry support the economic construction of our country at the same time. There is also a huge demand for raw materials-iron ore. Due to the problem of iron ore quality and geographical distribution in China, the production of domestic ore cannot effectively meet the demand for iron and steel production in China. Therefore, iron ore demand can only be met by imports. China is a major iron and steel producer and a major importer of iron ore. Since 2003, China's iron ore imports have maintained a high volume of high price trend. Economic development. The need for infrastructure makes our country maintain a large demand for iron ore. The increasing demand for iron ore in the international iron ore trade market has affected the international iron ore prices. The rise in the international iron ore market is to some extent influenced by the "China factor," which means that China's iron ore imports continue to grow. The price of iron ore is the largest part of the cost of iron and steel products, which is about 40% of the total cost. Therefore, the rise in iron ore prices leads to an increase in the cost of iron and steel products. At the same time, domestic statistics show that, The growth trend of crude steel production in China's iron and steel demand is not very obvious. At the same time, the stock of iron ore in our domestic ports continues to be maintained at a relatively high level. Some scholars have long analyzed that there are blind imports of iron ore in China at present. The situation of hoarding profits, the existence of which will only be damaged by China's iron and steel enterprises and their downstream industries. It is an important task of this paper to analyze the related factors that affect the iron ore import quantity of our country and to judge whether the development trend of the iron ore import quantity of our country is reasonable at present. In this paper, we first use econometric method to analyze the import quantity of iron ore, the output of crude steel, the import price of iron ore in China and the international iron ore transport price from January 2007 to December 2012. The monthly data of China's manufacturing purchasing manager index and other economic indicators are tested by causality test and model estimation, and then the quantitative relationship between iron ore imports and relevant economic indicators is analyzed according to the regression results. This paper studies the influence of the change of each index on the iron ore import quantity of our country, and observes the present situation and existing problems of iron ore import, forecasts the change and development of the iron ore import quantity and its influence on our country's economy. According to the existing problems in China's iron ore import trade and the analysis of the influence of related trade factors, this paper puts forward some practical suggestions for the development of import iron ore trade.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.1;F752.61

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