模糊层次分析法在国际EPC电站项目风险评价的应用研究

发布时间：2018-03-01 22:31

本文关键词： EPC合同条件电站工程风险评价风险识别模糊层次分析法(F-AHP)　出处：《河北工程大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国电建工程承包商凭借对电力建设项目的管理能力和国内的电力设备完整的产业链、价格优势,获得很多电站业主的青睐。对于走出国门的中资承包商,快速的适应国际工程承包惯例,拿出完整的国际工程的管理方案,迅速和世界接轨是其成功运作国际项目的关键。国际工程一般采用EPC(即设计、采购、施工)总承包模式,中国承包商由于对EPC合同条件,国际工程管理和国际通用技术规范等掌握有限,致使在进行EPC总承包时,风险问题不断出现,风险事故屡次发生,严重影响工程承包预期目标的实现和中国承包商的信誉。究其原因,中国承包商虽然在工程设备制造、设计和实施方面有一定的经验,但是在风险管理体系建设和风险评估技术应用方面远落后于国际知名承包商。由于EPC工程要求承包商进行全过程管理,并且承担大部分风险,因此在全面把握工程的不确定因素,系统进行风险分析方面的经验不足,是风险事故频频发生的主要原因。因此从承包商的角度出发,研究EPC合同模式下的国际电站工程的风险管理体系和风险评价方法,对于指导工程实践,避免风险事故显得非常必要。本文从FIDIC(国际咨询工程师联合会)合同条件入手,研究EPC合同模式的风险分配机制和分配原则,结合工程管理实践,研究了国际EPC电站工程的风险分类、风险辨识方法,构建风险评价模型。通过对文献的研究和问卷,使用风险识别技术国际EPC电站工程中比较关键的国家风险、环境风险、商务风险、设计风险、实施风险等关键风险因素,对这些风险因素进行分析。根据风险指标体系的构建原则,以沙特某EPC电站项目为案例,对识别出的风险进行分层,建立层次结构。运用模糊综合评价理论,评价风险造成损失的严重程度,运用层次分析法求出各个风险因素的权重,综合损失程度和项目风险权重进行综合评价。评价结果也为风险调控提供了一定的依据。
[Abstract]:By virtue of the management ability of the electric power construction project and the complete industrial chain of the domestic electric power equipment, the contractor of the electric construction project in our country has won the favor of many power station owners with its price advantage. For the Chinese-funded contractors who go abroad, The key to the successful operation of the international project is to adapt to the international engineering contract practice quickly, to come up with the complete management scheme of the international project, and to connect with the world quickly. EPC (design, procurement, construction) general contracting mode is generally used in international engineering. Due to the limited knowledge of EPC contract conditions, international engineering management and international general technical specifications, Chinese contractors are engaged in EPC general contracting. The continuous emergence of risk problems and frequent occurrence of risk accidents seriously affect the realization of the expected objectives of project contracting and the credibility of Chinese contractors. The reason is that although Chinese contractors have some experience in the manufacture, design and implementation of engineering equipment, However, the construction of risk management system and the application of risk assessment technology lag far behind those of international famous contractors. Because the EPC project requires contractors to manage the whole process and bear most of the risks, Therefore, the main reason for the frequent occurrence of risk accidents is the lack of experience in comprehensively grasping the uncertain factors of the project and in carrying out the risk analysis in the system. Therefore, from the contractor's point of view, It is necessary to study the risk management system and risk evaluation method of international power plant projects under the EPC contract mode in order to guide engineering practice and avoid risk accidents. Starting with the contract conditions of the International Federation of Consulting Engineers (FIDIC), this paper studies the risk distribution mechanism and principles of the EPC contract model, and studies the risk classification and risk identification method of the international EPC power plant project in combination with the project management practice. Through the research and questionnaire to the literature, using the risk identification technology, the key risk factors in the international EPC power plant project, such as national risk, environmental risk, commercial risk, design risk, implementation risk, etc. According to the construction principle of risk index system, taking a EPC power station project in Saudi Arabia as a case, the identified risk is stratified, and the hierarchical structure is established, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory is used. In order to evaluate the severity of the loss caused by risk, the weight of each risk factor is calculated by AHP, and the comprehensive evaluation is carried out by synthesizing the loss degree and the project risk weight. The evaluation results also provide a certain basis for risk regulation and control.
【学位授予单位】：河北工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61;TU71

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