造船厂接单风险综合评价研究

发布时间：2018-03-11 03:21

本文选题：接单风险　切入点：未确知测度理论　出处：《江苏科技大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着世界经济和国际贸易的发展，与之紧密相关的船舶工业也得到了迅猛发展，我国造船厂在抓住这一机遇的同时，也面临着各种风险，而在诸多风险中，接单风险对造船厂的生存与发展意义更加重大，这是因为当决策者做出决策时，也就决定了巨额资金的投向和配置比例，一旦决策失误，就会给企业造成不可估量的影响和损失。另外，由于接单时未来市场状况并不确定，因而造船厂对于政策法规、技术条件、材料供应等诸多要素不能准确把握，因此，相比其他阶段，订单在该阶段存在更大的不确定性，也正是因为这些不确定性在此阶段尚未表现出来，所以该阶段是风险管理和控制的最有利阶段，故造船厂在进行建造前必须对接单风险进行准确的评估，才能避免因决策失误所引起的严重后果。本文通过对造船厂的接单风险进行全面深入的研究，力图为其接单决策提供一定的支持。首先，本文在对国内外接单风险研究成果进行梳理的基础上，围绕工期、成本和质量三大风险管理目标以及造船厂船舶订单的特点，对接单的风险要素重新进行了整合，提出了三个风险层面，即供应商风险层面、造船厂自身风险层面以及船东风险层面。在此基础上，本文界定了各要素的衡量指标，再结合指标体系构建的原则，建立了造船厂接单风险指标体系。其次，本文结合造船厂接单风险的特点、各评价指标自身的特点以及各自的标准，分别划分了总体风险等级、各评价指标的风险等级。再次，本文引入未确知测度理论，构建了基于未确知测度理论的造船厂接单风险评价模型，其中，，对于权重的确定则是通过主观赋权法与客观赋权法的各种方法的比较，从中选择了较为客观的赋权法—熵值法；对于风险等级的判定则是采用等级空间有序分割的置信度识别法。最后，本文基于A造船厂某张预接订单进行了案例分析，据此验证了未确知测度理论的有效性与可操作性。
[Abstract]:With the development of the world economy and international trade, the shipbuilding industry, which is closely related to it, has also developed rapidly. The shipyards in our country are facing all kinds of risks while seizing this opportunity. The risk of receiving orders is more significant to the survival and development of shipyards, because when the decision makers make decisions, it also determines the investment and allocation ratio of huge amounts of funds. In addition, due to the uncertainty of the future market conditions at the time of receipt of the order, the shipyard cannot accurately grasp many factors, such as policies and regulations, technical conditions, material supply, etc., Orders are more uncertain at this stage than at other stages, and because these uncertainties are not yet apparent at this stage, this phase is the most advantageous stage for risk management and control. Therefore, before the shipyard is built, it is necessary to accurately evaluate the single risk in order to avoid the serious consequences caused by the wrong decision. This paper makes a comprehensive and in-depth study on the risk of receiving the single order in the shipyard. Try to provide some support for its decision to receive orders. First of all, on the basis of combing the domestic and foreign research results on risk of receiving orders, this paper reintegrates the risk elements of docking orders around the three risk management objectives of time limit, cost and quality and the characteristics of shipyard ship orders. Three risk levels, namely supplier risk level, shipyard risk level and shipowner risk level, are put forward. A risk index system for shipyard receiving orders is established. Secondly, combined with the characteristics of the shipyard risk, the characteristics of each evaluation index and their own standards, the overall risk grade and the risk grade of each evaluation index are divided respectively. Thirdly, this paper introduces the theory of unascertained measure, and constructs the risk evaluation model of shipyard receiving order based on unascertained measure theory, in which the weight is determined by the comparison of subjective weight method and objective weight method. The objective weighting method, entropy method, and the confidence recognition method based on orderly segmentation of rank space are used to judge the risk level. Finally, based on a pre-order of shipyard A, a case study is carried out to verify the validity and maneuverability of the unascertained measure theory.
【学位授予单位】：江苏科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.474;F272.3

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