吉林省能源供需预测及发展对策分析

发布时间：2018-03-12 06:29

本文选题：吉林省　切入点：能源供给　出处：《东北师范大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：能源是人类社会进步和发展的重要物质基础，是实现经济增长的重要生产要素。在21世纪，能源不仅成为全球性、战略性的问题，对于国家基本经济单元——省（区）而言，也是关系其发展的关键性、基础性问题。吉林省是我国重要的老工业基地之一，东北振兴战略开始实施以来，吉林省工业化、城市化得到快速发展，能源需求量也呈急剧上升趋势。而吉林省属于一次能源严重短缺的省份，，能源自给率不足50%，能源对外依存度逐年上升。面对吉林省能源供需矛盾日益尖锐、能源浪费严重、能源利用效率低等诸多问题，如何协调能源、经济、社会、环境之间的关系，寻求以最少的能源消耗并不牺牲环境为代价而取得吉林省经济更快更好地发展和进步，是吉林省急需解决的重要问题。本文根据研究需要，紧扣吉林省区域经济发展和能源供需的关系，运用系统动力学模型、定量与定性分析相结合的方法科学地对吉林省能源需求和供给进行了预测及分析。最后根据对未来吉林省能源供需态势及影响能源供需因素的掌握，本文对吉林省经济、能源可持续发展提出了切实可行的能源发展建议。本文研究成果主要有以下四方面：一、对能源与区域经济发展的关系进行了系统的研究、分析和总结，将能源研究深入到省区级能源与经济的研究，增加了能源研究的深度与广度，对于把握区域经济、能源、环境之间协调、可持续发展具有重要理论意义。二、通过对吉林省能源生产能力、区外调运条件以及新能源开发状况的定性与定量分析，预测吉林省未来能源供应潜力，对防止吉林省在能源开发利用、经济增长速度方面的盲目性，并制定切合实际的符合吉林省区域经济发展的能源发展战略提供科学依据。三、建立了吉林省能源需求预测模型。通过对影响能源需求的各种变量的选择和分析，确定了由经济发展速度、产业结构、能源消耗强度、二氧化碳排放量等变量组合而成的吉林省能源需求系统动力学模型，通过模型预测了吉林省未来能源消费状况。不仅为制定吉林省能源发展政策提供可靠依据，而且也丰富了我国能源需求预测模型的内容。四、根据预测结果，对吉林省未来20年能源发展提出了对策及建议。
[Abstract]:Energy is an important material foundation for the progress and development of human society and an important factor of production for achieving economic growth. In 21th century, energy not only became a global and strategic issue, but also a basic economic unit of a country, a province. Jilin Province is one of the important old industrial bases in China. Since the implementation of the northeast revitalization strategy, the industrialization and urbanization of Jilin Province have developed rapidly. The energy demand also shows a sharp upward trend. Jilin Province is a province with a serious shortage of primary energy, with an energy self-sufficiency rate of less than 50% and a rising degree of energy dependence year by year. In the face of the increasingly acute contradiction between supply and demand of energy in Jilin Province, energy waste is serious. How to coordinate the relationship among energy, economy, society and environment, and seek to achieve faster and better economic development and progress in Jilin Province at the expense of the environment without sacrificing the environment? Is the Jilin Province urgent need to solve the important problem. According to the needs of the research, this paper applies the system dynamics model to the relationship between regional economic development and energy supply and demand in Jilin Province. The method of combining quantitative and qualitative analysis has scientifically predicted and analyzed the energy demand and supply in Jilin Province. Finally, according to the situation of energy supply and demand in Jilin Province in the future and the factors affecting energy supply and demand, this paper makes an analysis on the economy of Jilin Province. The sustainable development of energy resources has put forward feasible suggestions for energy development. The research results of this paper are as follows:. First, the relationship between energy and regional economic development has been systematically studied, analyzed and summarized, energy research has been deepened into the research of energy and economy at the provincial and district levels, and the depth and breadth of energy research have been increased, so as to grasp the regional economy and energy. Coordination between the environment, sustainable development has important theoretical significance. Second, through qualitative and quantitative analysis of Jilin Province's energy production capacity, the conditions for transferring and transporting outside the region, and the situation of new energy development, the potential of future energy supply in Jilin Province is predicted, so as to prevent Jilin Province from developing and utilizing energy resources. The blindness of the economic growth rate and the establishment of a practical energy development strategy in accordance with the regional economic development of Jilin Province provide scientific basis. Thirdly, the prediction model of energy demand in Jilin Province is established. Through the selection and analysis of various variables affecting energy demand, the speed of economic development, the industrial structure, and the intensity of energy consumption are determined. The system dynamics model of energy demand in Jilin Province, which is composed of carbon dioxide emissions and other variables, is used to predict the future energy consumption of Jilin Province, which not only provides a reliable basis for formulating the energy development policy of Jilin Province. It also enriches the content of energy demand prediction model in China. Fourth, according to the forecast results, the countermeasures and suggestions for the energy development of Jilin Province in the next 20 years are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：东北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.2

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