园区南110KV变电站工程工期风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-03-24 21:14

本文选题：变电站　切入点：工期　出处：《华北电力大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：电力作为国民经济的基础，与人们的生活和社会经济的发展密切相关，具有重要的经济和社会效益。然而，变电站工程往往所需的投资金额庞大，建设周期长，变电站工程从最初的制定建设计划到项目投产完工涉及许多的工序，每个工序又会面临不同的风险因素。因此，变电站工程的整个建设工期会受到人为、社会、环境、自然、技术、资金、材料等诸多因素的影响。随着变电站建设过程中新技术、新方法、新材料的引进，变电站建设过程中面临的不可预见的风险增加。当变电站工程建设过程中发生我们无法预见的风险因素时，将会导致项目无法按计划工期完工，导致人力、物力、财力等发生浪费，影响工程质量乃至整个工程项目目标的实现。基于此，对变电站工程的工期风险进行分析和评价具有十分重要的理论和现实意义。一方面，通过对变电站工程的工期风险进行分析，有助于我们全面的了解工期风险的影响因素，为变电站建设过程中防范化解工期风险打好基础；另一方面，以变电站工程的现实资料为依据，对变电站工程项目的工期风险进行科学合理的评价，有助于我们将工期风险进行量化，确定各风险因素对工期风险的影响程度，从而为日后防范工期风险提供比较科学的依据。如何从整体上对变电站工程的工期风险进行评价，，从总体上把握变电站工程的工期风险水平，从而有助于我们更好的防范工期风险，成为我们必须要解决的现实问题。本文立足工作实践，以园区南110KV变电站工程作为案例，通过对变电站工程工期风险影响因素进行分析，建立园区南110KV变电站工程工期风险评价指标体系，进而采用模糊综合评价和层次分析相结合的方法对园区南变电站工程的工期风险进行科学评价，最后，以评价结果为依据提出有针对性的风险控制措施，从而为园区南变电站工程进行工期风险管理提供理论指导，为同类变电站工程的工期风险管理提供参考指导。
[Abstract]:As the foundation of national economy, electric power is closely related to people's life and the development of social economy, and has important economic and social benefits. However, substation projects often require a large amount of investment and a long construction period. The substation project involves many processes from the initial construction plan to the completion of the project, and each process will face different risk factors. Therefore, the entire construction period of the substation project will be artificial, social, environmental and natural. With the introduction of new technologies, new methods, and new materials in the process of substation construction, The unexpected risks in substation construction are increased. When the unforeseeable risk factors occur in the substation construction process, the project will not be completed as planned, resulting in manpower and material resources. The waste of financial resources affects the quality of the project and even the realization of the goal of the whole project. Based on this, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to analyze and evaluate the construction period risk of the substation project. Through the analysis of the construction period risk of substation project, it is helpful for us to fully understand the influencing factors of the period risk, and to lay a good foundation for the prevention and solution of the period risk in the process of substation construction; on the other hand, Based on the actual data of substation engineering, the scientific and reasonable evaluation of the project duration risk is helpful for us to quantify the duration risk and determine the influence degree of each risk factor on the construction period risk. Therefore, it provides a scientific basis for the prevention of time-limit risks in the future. How to evaluate the duration risk of substation project and grasp the risk level of substation project as a whole, so as to help us to better guard against the period risk, This paper, based on working practice, takes the South 110KV Substation Project in the Park as a case, and analyzes the factors affecting the construction period risk of the substation project. The project duration risk evaluation index system of South 110KV Substation Project is established, and the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and hierarchical analysis is used to evaluate the project duration risk scientifically. Finally, Based on the evaluation results, the paper puts forward the corresponding risk control measures, which can provide theoretical guidance for the construction period risk management of the south substation project in the park, and provide reference guidance for the similar substation project duration risk management.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61;F272

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