我国汽车制造业上市公司财务预警研究

发布时间：2018-04-02 12:00

本文选题：汽车制造业　切入点：因子分析　出处：《陕西科技大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着经济的发展、科技的进步，我国汽车制造业也在不断的发展壮大，但受国家相关政策、油价及材料物价、市场因素等方面的影响，汽车制造业正处于波动性的发展状态。由于汽车制造业的财务风险不仅关系到整个汽车行业的经济利益，而且也与股东利益、证券市场及国民经济等密切相关，，所以汽车制造业上市公司必须进行财务预警系统的研究与开发，加强风险管理，提高预警意识，做好风险防范措施，以促进我国汽车制造业健康而快速的发展。本文首先介绍了研究的背景、目的及意义，通过借鉴国内外学者在财务预警方面的研究成果，确立本文的研究方法、思路及创新之处。然后介绍了企业财务预警的相关概念及理论基础，并分析了我国汽车制造企业的发展环境、财务现状、风险特征及影响因素。财务标体系是预警模型构建的基础，也是直接影响预警效果的重要因素之一，为了更客观、真实反映汽车制造业的财务状况，本文选取了偿债能力、现金流量能力、盈利能力、成长能力及运营能力等方面的26个财务指标，另外从公司治理、股权结构、审计意见等角度选取8个非财务指标来构建财务预警指标体系。在实证研究中，按照规模、经营范围、时间等样本选取原则，选取深沪A股市场中的54家汽车制造业上市公司为研究样本，样本数据包括在2003—2011年被特别处理的18家汽车制造业上市公司和与之配对的36家财务正常公司。然后利用SPSS软件中的显著性检验、因子分析等方法进行财务指标的筛选，最终确立了5个综合财务指标因子和4个非财务指标因子。结合汽车制造业上市公司的特点及财务状况，用Logistic回归分析方法构建汽车制造企业的预警模型，通过模型的检验、比较分析可以得出以下结论：引入非财务指标后，财务危机发生前两年、前三年的预测精度达到92.6%、79.6%，说明模型的预警效果较为显著，也说明了财务危机的发生是一个渐变的过程，随着时间的推移，财务状况逐渐恶化；与仅考虑财务因素相比，引用非财务指标后，财务危机发生前两年、前三年的预测准确度都有所提高，分别提高了5.6%、12.9%，从另一个角度也可以看出非财务指标对远期预警来说效果更为明显，而财务指标对近期的预警效果较好。最后，本文针对汽车制造业上市公司的行业特征及财务风险状况提出了一些建议，企业应该提高危机意识、创新意识，建立财务风险预警体系，提高债务偿还能力及盈利能力等。建立汽车制造业上市公司的财务预警模型，有助于企业及时进行风险预测，积极采取风险防范措施，这对汽车制造业上市公司财务风险的前期控制和中期改善都有一定的实际意义和指导价值。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy and the progress of science and technology, the automobile manufacturing industry of our country has been developing and expanding constantly, but it is influenced by the related policies of the country, the price of oil and materials, the market factors, etc. Because the financial risk of automobile manufacturing industry is not only related to the economic interests of the whole automobile industry, but also closely related to the interests of shareholders, the securities market and the national economy, etc. Therefore, the listed companies of automobile manufacturing industry must carry on the research and development of the financial early warning system, strengthen the risk management, improve the early warning consciousness, and do well the risk prevention measures in order to promote the healthy and rapid development of the automobile manufacturing industry in our country. Firstly, this paper introduces the background, purpose and significance of the research, and establishes the research method of this paper by referring to the research results of domestic and foreign scholars in financial early warning. Then it introduces the related concepts and theoretical basis of enterprise financial early warning, and analyzes the development environment and financial status of automobile manufacturing enterprises in China. The financial standard system is the foundation of the early warning model and one of the important factors that directly affect the early warning effect. In order to reflect the financial situation of the automobile manufacturing industry more objectively and truly, this paper selects the solvency. There are 26 financial indexes in cash flow ability, profit ability, growth ability and operation ability. In addition, 8 non-financial indexes are selected from the aspects of corporate governance, equity structure and audit opinion to construct financial early warning index system. In the empirical study, according to the principles of sample selection, such as scale, business scope, time and so on, 54 auto manufacturing listed companies in Shenzhen and Shanghai A-share markets are selected as the study samples. The sample data include 18 auto manufacturing listed companies that were specially processed in 2003-2011 and 36 normal financial companies matched with them. Then the financial indicators are screened by using the significance test and factor analysis methods in SPSS software. Finally, five comprehensive financial index factors and four non-financial index factors are established. Combined with the characteristics and financial situation of listed companies in automobile manufacturing industry, the early warning model of automobile manufacturing enterprises is constructed by Logistic regression analysis, and the model is tested. The comparative analysis can draw the following conclusions: two years before the introduction of non-financial indicators, the prediction accuracy of the first three years has reached 92.66.79.6. it shows that the early warning effect of the model is more remarkable, and that the occurrence of financial crisis is a gradual process. Over time, the financial situation has deteriorated; the accuracy of forecasts for the first three years of the financial crisis has improved in the two years preceding the financial crisis, when non-financial indicators were quoted as compared to only financial factors. From another angle, we can also see that non-financial indicators have more obvious effect on forward warning, while financial indicators have better effect in the near future. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions on the industry characteristics and financial risk situation of the listed companies in automobile manufacturing industry. Enterprises should raise the awareness of crisis and innovation, and establish a financial risk warning system. To improve the ability of debt repayment and profitability, to establish a financial early warning model of listed companies in automobile manufacturing industry, which will help enterprises to make timely risk prediction and take active risk prevention measures. This is of practical significance and guiding value to the early control and medium-term improvement of financial risk of listed companies in automobile manufacturing industry.
【学位授予单位】：陕西科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F426.471

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