国际原油价格波动对我国产业部门影响的研究

发布时间：2018-04-17 04:40

本文选题：国际原油价格 + 非竞争型投入产出模型　；参考：《南京航空航天大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来，国际原油价格波动剧烈，仅2008一年，原油价格就由2007年底的100美元/桶涨至近150美元/桶之后在年末跌至40美元/桶，对世界经济以及中国经济造成了不小的影响。我国正处于工业化、城镇化快速发展的关键时期，对原油等原材料呈刚性需求，由于资源禀赋以及需求增长速度过快而导致我国原油供给缺口越来越大，对原油进口依存度越来越高，自2009年突破警戒线50%之后一直有上涨趋势。较高的原油进口依存度，意味着国内原油市场对国际原油市场的依赖较深，较深的依赖也将意味着受国际原油价格的影响越大。在如此高的原油对外依存度情景下，我国各个产业部门的原油依赖性是怎样的，原油价格波动究竟会对我国经济产业部门产生怎样的影响，所造成的影响是通过什么途径产生的，，这些都是是值得关注并且澄清的科学问题。本文基于现今我国高原油对外依存度的背景，对国际原油价格波动对我国产业部门的影响进行了研究。本文运用非竞争型投入产出方法，将进口原油和国内生产原油区分开来，对我国国民经济各部门的进口原油依赖程度进行了分析。国内的一次能源生产部门诸如煤炭开采和选洗业对于进口原油的依赖程度并不高；而二次能源生产部门，各类非能源类的采掘业、金属冶炼及金属压延业以及化学工业都对进口原油表现出了较高的依赖性，这种依赖性通过生产投入关系而进一步影响到轻工业和服务业。同时对我国产业关联度进行了分析，并结合非竞争型投入产出价格模型的分析，探讨了国际原油价格对我国国民经济部门产出价格的影响，绘制了价格波动影响图。最后，本文编制了2007国家宏观社会核算矩阵以及8部门的分解的社会核算矩阵，并在前文分析的基础上构建了8部门的国际原油价格波动对我国产业部门影响的CGE模型，设定了不同的原油价格波动情景进一步探讨国际原油价格波动对产业部门产出的影响，并模拟了对资源类产业增收不同幅度从价资源税的情景，通过分析得出了一些相关结论。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the price of international crude oil has fluctuated sharply. In only 2008 years, the price of crude oil rose from $100 per barrel to nearly $150 per barrel at the end of 2007, and then fell to $40 per barrel at the end of the year, which has had a great impact on the world economy and the Chinese economy.Our country is in the key period of industrialization and rapid development of urbanization. There is a rigid demand for crude oil and other raw materials. The shortage of crude oil supply is getting bigger and bigger because of the rapid growth of resource endowment and demand.Increasing dependence on crude oil imports has been rising since 2009, when it broke through the alert line of 50%.The higher dependence on crude oil import means that the domestic crude oil market depends heavily on the international crude oil market, and the deeper dependence will also mean the greater the impact of the international crude oil price.Under such a high degree of dependence on foreign crude oil, what is the dependence on crude oil in various industrial sectors in China, and what kind of impact will the fluctuation of crude oil prices have on the economic and industrial sectors of our country?These are scientific issues that deserve attention and clarification.Based on the background of high crude oil dependence, this paper studies the impact of international crude oil price fluctuation on China's industrial sector.By using the non-competitive input-output method, this paper distinguishes the imported crude oil from the domestic crude oil production, and analyzes the degree of dependence of the imported crude oil on the various sectors of the national economy of our country.Domestic primary energy production sectors, such as coal mining and washing industries, are not highly dependent on imported crude oil, while secondary energy production sectors, all types of non-energy extractive industries,Metal smelting, metal calender industry and chemical industry are highly dependent on imported crude oil, which further affects light industry and service industry through the relationship of production and input.At the same time, the paper analyzes the industrial correlation degree of our country, and combines the analysis of the non-competitive input-output price model, discusses the influence of international crude oil price on the output price of our national economy, and draws the chart of price fluctuation.Finally, this paper compiles the 2007 national macro-social accounting matrix and the decomposed social accounting matrix of eight sectors, and constructs the CGE model of the impact of the international crude oil price fluctuation on the industrial sector of China on the basis of the previous analysis.Different scenarios of crude oil price fluctuation are set up to further explore the impact of international crude oil price fluctuation on the output of industrial sector, and the scenarios of increasing resource tax on resource industry by different ranges are simulated, and some relevant conclusions are obtained through analysis.
【学位授予单位】：南京航空航天大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F416.22;F426.22

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