欧债危机对中国光伏行业传导机制研究

发布时间：2018-04-21 10:49

本文选题：欧债危机 + 光伏产业　；参考：《陕西师范大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：太阳能作为一种可以永久开发利用的清洁能源,有着巨大的发展潜力。从人类文明发展以来,太阳能一直是人类赖以生存和发展的能源形势,其目前所有存在的自然资源几乎全部通过转换太阳能形成其现有形态。从当代科技底蕴和发展来看,太阳能技术的进步可能会决定未来的能源发展走向和人类社会的走向。太阳能光伏技术(PV or Photovoltaic)源自爱因斯坦的光电效应理论,利用半导体材料(如单晶硅,多晶硅等)的高性能光伏效应,将太阳辐射直接转化为电能的一种新型技术。光伏产业则是围绕着以光电转化率为核心的集晶硅材料的生产制造,光伏组件的封装调试,光伏发电系统并网应用等环节的产业链条。中国的光伏产业发展迅速,现已经成为世界上最大的光伏生产出口国,截止2012年,中国共生产并出口光伏组件超过10GW,占世界光伏需求总量的50%以上。 2010年以来,随着希腊、西班牙、爱尔兰等国家相继爆发主权债务危机,欧债危机就像多米诺骨牌一样开始波及整个欧元区,对整个世界经济产生了巨大的影响。欧盟是我国第一大贸易合作伙伴,与我国有着密切的贸易,投资往来,欧债危机对我国出口贸易产业影响巨大,其中受到严重冲击的是我国光伏产业的发展。中国光伏产业是典型的出口导向型产业,近期恶化的欧债危机,对80%以上的产品出口依靠欧洲市场的中国光伏企业形成了巨大的冲击。本文以此次欧债危机对中国光伏行业对外出口影响的传导机制为主题进行研究,旨在通过分析危机影响中国光伏行业对外出口的方式和路径,抓住导致对外出口萎缩的主要经济变量,从而有效抑制或减弱危机影响,对减小欧债危机损失提供对策依据。本文采用定性与定量并行,理论结合实证等研究方法,利用笔者从事的光伏产业的便利条件,从中国光伏行业协会取得数据,即从2010年1月至2012年9月的光伏产品按照发电量出口的最新数据,在危机对中国光伏行业对外出口影响的事实基础上,分析和验证了欧债危机对中国光伏行业对外出口影响的传导机制。首先,从出口总量、出口环境、出口市场、出口主体等各方面,全面介绍总结了欧债危机对中国光伏行业对外出口贸易影响；接着,从理论角度分析了欧债危机对中国光伏行业对外出口贸易影响的原因和传导机制,得出相应结论。同时,本文通过建立实证模型,检验了对应传导变量在危机中变化的程度,以及传导变量变化对中国光伏行业出口造成的影响。文章最后部分提出了政策建议。
[Abstract]:Solar energy, as a kind of clean energy that can be developed and used permanently, has great development potential. Since the development of human civilization, solar energy has been the energy situation on which human beings depend for survival and development. Almost all of its existing natural resources form its present form by converting solar energy. From the perspective of the development of modern science and technology, the progress of solar energy technology may determine the future trend of energy development and the trend of human society. Solar photovoltaic technology (PV or Photovoltaici) originated from Einstein's theory of photovoltaic effect. It uses the high performance photovoltaic effect of semiconductor materials (such as monocrystalline silicon, polycrystalline silicon, etc.) to convert solar radiation directly into electric energy. Photovoltaic industry is around the production and manufacture of crystalline silicon material with photoelectric conversion rate as the core, the packaging and debugging of photovoltaic module, the application of photovoltaic power generation system and so on. China's photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly and has become the world's largest exporter of photovoltaic production. As of 2012, China has produced and exported more than 10GW photovoltaic modules, accounting for more than 50 percent of the world's total photovoltaic demand. Since 2010, as sovereign debt crises have erupted in Greece, Spain, Ireland and other countries, the European debt crisis has begun to ripple across the euro zone like dominoes, with a huge impact on the entire world economy. The European Union is the largest trade partner of our country and has close trade and investment with China. The European debt crisis has a great impact on the export trade industry of our country, among which the development of photovoltaic industry of our country has been seriously impacted. China's photovoltaic industry is a typical export-oriented industry. The recent deterioration of the European debt crisis has created a huge impact on the Chinese photovoltaic enterprises which rely on the European market for more than 80% of their exports. This paper focuses on the transmission mechanism of the impact of the European debt crisis on the external exports of China's photovoltaic industry, in order to analyze the ways and paths of the crisis affecting the external exports of China's photovoltaic industry. By grasping the main economic variables that lead to the contraction of foreign exports, we can effectively restrain or weaken the impact of the crisis and provide a basis for the countermeasures to reduce the losses of the European debt crisis. In this paper, qualitative and quantitative parallel, theoretical combined with empirical research methods, using the author engaged in photovoltaic industry facilities, from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association to obtain data, That is, the photovoltaic products from January 2010 to September 2012, based on the latest data on the export of electricity generation, are based on the fact that the crisis has affected the external exports of China's photovoltaic industry. This paper analyzes and verifies the transmission mechanism of the impact of the European debt crisis on China's photovoltaic industry's external exports. Firstly, from the aspects of total export volume, export environment, export market, export main body and so on, the paper summarizes the impact of the European debt crisis on China's photovoltaic industry's foreign export trade. In this paper, the causes and conduction mechanism of the European debt crisis on China's photovoltaic industry's foreign export trade are analyzed theoretically, and the corresponding conclusions are drawn. At the same time, by establishing an empirical model, this paper tests the extent of the change of the corresponding conductive variables in the crisis, and the impact of the change of the conductive variables on the export of China's photovoltaic industry. At the end of the article, some policy suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：陕西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61;F831.59

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