印尼电力产能综合资源战略规划

发布时间：2018-04-22 14:06

本文选题：电力能源规划 + 印尼电力系统规划　；参考：《清华大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文研究电力能源生产能力长远规划以满足印度尼西亚不断增长的需求。尽管印度尼西亚国内生产总值增速很高，，其电力生产能力却很脆弱因为其拉闸限电频率很高，而且在预计未来印尼9.2%的电力需求增长会加剧拉闸限电。为了在2025年达到政府设置的15%新能源和可再生能源目标，印尼电力系统更加需要进行长远的生产能力规划。综合资源战略规划从综合资源演化而来，其具体方法可用于印尼电力系统的长远规划。我们研究结合了需求侧管理的非线性综合资源战略规划。当最优规划有多个最优解时，我们用惩罚函数来规范最优解。最优解显示最小成本为1647.3亿美元，在2025年可以实现20.94%的生产能力属于新能源和可再生能源。情境分析表明，如果不结合需求侧管理，印尼政府仍然可以达到其设置的目标，但必须引入1.39亿美元的激励资金以取得15.23%新能源和可再生能源生产能力。
[Abstract]:This paper studies the long-term planning of power energy production capacity to meet the growing demand of Indonesia. Despite the high GDP growth rate, Indonesia's power production capacity is fragile because of the high frequency of power cuts, and it is expected that Indonesia's 9.2 percent increase in demand for electricity in the future will exacerbate the power cuts. In order to meet the government's target of 15 percent new and renewable energy by 2025, Indonesia's power system needs to plan long-term production capacity. Integrated resource strategic planning evolved from integrated resources, and its specific method can be used in the long-term planning of power system in Indonesia. We study the nonlinear integrated resource strategic planning based on demand side management. When the optimal programming has multiple optimal solutions, we use the penalty function to regulate the optimal solution. The optimal solution shows that the minimum cost is $164.73 billion, and 20.94 percent of the production capacity can be achieved by 2025 in new and renewable energy sources. Situational analysis shows that the Indonesian government can still meet its targets without combining demand-side management, but must introduce $139 million of incentives to achieve 15.23 percent of new and renewable energy production capacity.
【学位授予单位】：清华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F434.2;F416.61

【共引文献】