无锡市工业企业碳排放及减排对策研究

发布时间：2018-05-04 07:03

本文选题：碳排放 + 灰色关联度　；参考：《江南大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：全球气候变暖问题，目前正从一个环境问题演变成涉及全球政治、经济、贸易等复杂议题，各国对此都高度关注。中国经济正面临着前所未有的挑战，即中国必须由传统经济发展模式向低碳经济发展模式转变。长江三角洲是我国经济实力最强的区域，无锡市地处长江三角洲的中心地带，是一个典型工业城市，工业增加值在全国所有城市中居第6位。对无锡市工业碳排放强度的变化及其动因进行分析，对促进无锡经济转型发展具有重要意义，对其他工业城市低碳经济发展也有借鉴意义。本文从不同层面系统的分析了无锡市工业碳排放。首先，运用脱钩模型分析了无锡市工业碳排放与工业经济的脱钩关系，结果显示，1994-1997年为脱钩状态，以弱脱钩为主；1998-2004年为负脱钩和联结状态，以增长联结为主；2005-2010年为脱钩状态，以弱脱钩为主，脱钩指数处于稳定下降趋势，符合低碳工业发展趋势。其次，应用回归分析模型，分析了影响无锡工业碳排放的主要因素，结果表明人均工业增加值是工业碳排放的主要促进因素，产业结构系数和能源效率是工业碳排放的主要抑制因素，工业利用外资对无锡工业碳排放增长也具有较大贡献。再次，运用灰色关联度模型对工业各行业碳排放量与工业增加值的关联度进行分析，并对工业各行业进行分类。结果表明，电力、热力的生产和供应业、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业、化学原料及化学制品制造业、非金属矿物制品业、纺织服装、鞋、帽制造业、通用设备制造业、电气机械及器材制造业等7个行业属于高排放高关联行业，其碳排放量占工业碳排放总量的89.994%，而且与工业经济增长密切相关，保持同步增长趋势。最后，采用改进的差值因素分解法，从效率效应、结构效应两个方面分析工业碳排放强度变化的内在动因。结果显示，在1999-2010年无锡市工业碳排放强度的变化量中，结构贡献率为42.84%，效率贡献率为57.16%；1999-2005年结构效应是碳排放强度下降的主要原因，贡献率为76.23%；2005-2010年效率效应是碳排放强度下降的主要驱动因素，，贡献率为81.73%。然后，运用灰色预测模型对无锡市工业碳排放量进行预测，显示无锡市未来五年工业碳排放量将继续缓慢增长，平均年增长率为2.8%，但由于基数庞大，工业碳排放增加的绝对量仍然很大，减排任务艰巨。最后，提出无锡市减少工业碳排放的对策措施，即加快产业结构调整、加强工业低碳技术研发、提高能源效率、积极利用清洁能源等。
[Abstract]:The problem of global warming is now evolving from an environmental problem into a complex issue involving global politics, economy and trade. All countries are paying great attention to this. China's economy is facing unprecedented challenges, that is, China must change from the traditional economic development model to the low carbon economy development model. The Yangtze River delta is our economic strength. The strongest area, Wuxi is located in the center of the Yangtze River Delta, is a typical industrial city, and the industrial added value is sixth in all cities in the country. The analysis of the changes in the intensity of industrial carbon emission and its motivation in Wuxi is of great significance to the economic transformation and development of Wuxi and the development of low carbon economy in other industrial cities. It also has reference significance.
In this paper, the industrial carbon emission in Wuxi is analyzed from different levels. First, the decoupling model is used to analyze the decoupling relationship between industrial carbon emission and industrial economy in Wuxi. The results show that the 1994-1997 year is a decoupling state and a weak decoupling. The 1998-2004 year is negative decoupling and joint state, mainly with growth connection, and 2005-2010 years is taken off. The hook state is based on the weak decoupling. The decoupling index is in a steady decline trend and is in line with the trend of low carbon industry development. Secondly, the main factors affecting the industrial carbon emission in Wuxi are analyzed by the regression analysis model. The result shows that the per capita industrial added value is the main promoting factor of the industrial carbon emission, and the industrial structure coefficient and energy efficiency are industrial carbon. The main restraining factor of the emission, the industrial utilization of foreign capital has a great contribution to the growth of industrial carbon emissions in Wuxi. Thirdly, the grey correlation degree model is used to analyze the correlation between the carbon emissions and the industrial added value of industrial industries, and the industrial industries are classified. The results show that the power, the thermal production and supply industry, the black metal Smelting and calendering processing industry, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, non-metallic mineral products industry, textile clothing, shoes, cap manufacturing, general equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing are 7 industries with high emission and high related industries. Their carbon emissions account for 89.994% of the total amount of industrial carbon emissions and are closely related to industrial economic growth. At last, the internal motivation of the change of industrial carbon emission intensity was analyzed by the improved difference factor decomposition method from two aspects of efficiency effect and structure effect. The results showed that in the 1999-2010 year Wuxi industrial carbon emission intensity changes, the structure contribution rate was 42.84%, the efficiency contribution rate was 57.16%; 1999-2005 The annual structure effect is the main reason for the decrease of carbon emission intensity, and the contribution rate is 76.23%. The 2005-2010 year efficiency effect is the main driving factor of the decrease of carbon emission intensity, and the contribution rate is 81.73%..
Then, the grey prediction model is used to predict the industrial carbon emissions in Wuxi, which shows that the industrial carbon emissions will continue to grow slowly in the next five years, and the average annual growth rate is 2.8%. However, because of the huge base number, the absolute amount of industrial carbon emissions is still very large and the task of reducing the emission is arduous. Finally, it is proposed to reduce the industrial carbon emissions in Wuxi. The countermeasures are to speed up the adjustment of industrial structure, strengthen the research and development of low carbon technology, improve energy efficiency, and actively use clean energy.

【学位授予单位】：江南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F424.1

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