煤机制造行业科研项目风险评估

发布时间：2018-05-05 14:40

本文选题：科研项目 + 风险评估　；参考：《复旦大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：煤机制造行业科研项目向来是此行业中技术水平高度的体现,对整个行业的发展方向有着重要的影响。因其主要面向煤矿等复杂恶劣性环境,此行业的科研项目往往要求更高更具体。因此,煤机制造行业科研项目引入风险管理理念,增加风险评估环节,为整个项目提供管理的依据,为决策者提供方案改进的措施和方向,对煤机制造行业科研项目的顺利实施具有极为重要的意义。本文对煤机制造行业科研项目的风险因素进行具体分析,将项目进程中的重要风险因子进行分类识别。综合对比各种定性和定量的分析方法,最终选择将层次分析法和影响图法相结合,建立适用于煤机制造行业的全过程的项目风险评估模型。针对高强度大功率短壁电牵引采煤机项目的具体案例,采用层次分析法进行了方案决策；采用影响图法推算项目各级风险结点的条件概率,计算重要结点对目标结点的条件概率,最终确定风险管理的主要方向。为项目风险管理者制定相应的风险应对策略和规避措施提供了理论参考依据。
[Abstract]:The scientific research project of coal machine manufacturing industry has always been the embodiment of the high level of technology in this industry and has an important influence on the development direction of the whole industry. Because of its complex environment, such as coal mines, the industry's scientific research projects often require higher and more specific. Therefore, scientific research projects in coal machinery manufacturing industry introduce risk management concept, increase risk assessment links, provide management basis for the whole project, and provide policy makers with measures and directions to improve their plans. It is of great significance for the smooth implementation of scientific research projects in coal machine manufacturing industry. In this paper, the risk factors of scientific research projects in coal machine manufacturing industry are analyzed in detail, and the important risk factors in the process of the projects are classified and identified. After comprehensive comparison of various qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, a project risk assessment model suitable for the whole process of coal machine manufacturing industry is established by combining AHP with impact diagram method. In view of the specific case of high strength and high power short wall electric haulage shearer project, AHP method is used to make scheme decision, and influence chart method is used to calculate the conditional probability of risk nodes at all levels of the project. The conditional probability of the important node to the target node is calculated, and the main direction of risk management is finally determined. It provides a theoretical reference for project risk managers to formulate corresponding risk coping strategies and evading measures.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F273.1;F426.4

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