电网企业输电中断风险传递与评价研究

发布时间：2018-05-09 19:41

本文选题：风险传递 + 输电中断风险　；参考：《华北电力大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着国民经济的不断增长以及现代社会数字高科技设备的广泛应用,国民经济对电力供应的依赖性不断增强,一旦发生电力中断事故,不但电网企业将受到直接影响,而且给用户的生产、生活乃至整个社会造成严重的经济影响。为了提高电网企业的供电可靠性,建立电网企业输电中断风险评估体系以及对电力中断事故造成的损失进行估算具有有重要的理论意义和实践指导价值。本文作为华北电力大学“211工程”三期校内面上项目《信息化环境下供电风险传递理论与应用研究》主要研究内容之一,对基于风险传递理论的电网企业输电中断风险传递理论模型及其应用进行了重点研究。本文首先对输电中断以及输电中断风险的国内外研究现状进行综述,并对国内外研究现状进行了简要分析,并由此提出本文所要研究的问题。其次对风险元传递的基础理论进行了阐述,包括风险、风险元的定义、风险传递的概念以及风险传递理论涉及的数学基础,为后面的研究打下了理论基础。接着分析了输电中断产生原因、输电中断风险传递过程及影响,在此基础上建立了电网企业输电中断风险风险分析的层次传递模型,并运用信息扩散方法和CBRM管理体系对输电中断风险元进行定量研究。然后运用产电比方法并引用断电影响系数从整个社会的角度对输电中断的损失进行估算。最后运用算例验证了以上提出方法的科学性、可靠性和实用性。
[Abstract]:With the continuous growth of the national economy and the wide application of digital high-tech equipment in modern society, the dependence of the national economy on the power supply is increasing. Once the power interruption accident occurs, not only the power grid enterprises will be directly affected. And to the production of users, life and even the entire society caused serious economic impact. In order to improve the power supply reliability of power grid enterprises, it is of great theoretical significance and practical guiding value to establish a transmission interruption risk assessment system and to estimate the losses caused by power interruption accidents. This paper is one of the main research contents of the "211 Project" of North China University of Electric Power, which is one of the main research contents of "the Theory and Application of Power supply risk Transmission in the Information Environment". The theoretical model and application of transmission interruption risk transfer in power grid enterprises based on risk transfer theory are studied. In this paper, the research status of transmission interruption and transmission interruption risk at home and abroad is first summarized, and the research status at home and abroad is briefly analyzed, and the problems to be studied in this paper are put forward. Secondly, the basic theory of risk transmission is expounded, including the definition of risk, the definition of risk element, the concept of risk transmission and the mathematical basis of risk transfer theory, which lays a theoretical foundation for the later research. Then, the causes of transmission interruption, the transmission risk transmission process and its influence are analyzed, and the hierarchical transmission model of transmission interruption risk analysis in power grid enterprises is established. The information diffusion method and CBRM management system are used to quantitatively study the transmission interruption risk element. Then the loss of transmission interruption is estimated from the point of view of the whole society by using the power generation ratio method and the power failure influence coefficient. Finally, the scientific, reliability and practicability of the proposed method are verified by an example.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F272.3;F426.61;TM732

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