中国碳排放与能源消费关系实证研究——基于VEC模型

发布时间：2018-05-14 18:04

本文选题：碳排放 + 能源消费　；参考：《数学的实践与认识》2014年19期

【摘要】：中国碳减排问题成为世界关注的焦点问题.研究碳排放与能源消费关系有助于实现2020年碳减排目标.选取1953-2008年中国碳排放和能源消费数据,运用协整理论、向量误差修正模型(VEC)和Granger因果关系分析,对中国碳排放量与能源消费之间的相互关系进行实证研究.研究结果表明:碳排放与能源消费之间存在协整关系,能源消费增加1%,碳排放将增加0.9646%,即碳排放对能源消费的长期弹性为0.9646.从短期误差修正模型来看,碳排放与能源消费之间具有动态调整机制.非均衡误差项的存在,能够保证两者之间长期均衡关系的存在.Granger因果关系研究表明:碳排放与能源消费之间互为双向因果关系.通过脉冲函数和方差分解分析了模型的动态特征.根据研究结果,提出降低能源消费和减少碳排放对策.
[Abstract]:The issue of carbon emission reduction in China has become the focus of attention in the world. The study of the relationship between carbon emissions and energy consumption is helpful to achieve the 2020 carbon emission reduction target. Based on the data of carbon emissions and energy consumption in China from 1953 to 2008, this paper makes an empirical study on the relationship between carbon emissions and energy consumption in China by using cointegration theory, vector error correction model (VECs) and Granger causality analysis. The results show that there is a cointegration relationship between carbon emissions and energy consumption. Energy consumption increases by 1 and carbon emissions increase by 0.9646, that is, the long-term elasticity of carbon emissions to energy consumption is 0.9646. From the short-term error correction model, there is a dynamic adjustment mechanism between carbon emissions and energy consumption. The existence of non-equilibrium error term can ensure the existence of long-term equilibrium relationship between the two. Granger causality study shows that: carbon emissions and energy consumption is a two-way causal relationship. The dynamic characteristics of the model are analyzed by impulse function and variance decomposition. According to the research results, the measures to reduce energy consumption and reduce carbon emissions are put forward.
【作者单位】：徐州工程学院经济学院;南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家统计局项目(2013LY040) 江苏省社科联学会部项目(13SXH-078)
【分类号】：F426.2;F205

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