我国水泥产业市场特征以及企业间博弈

发布时间：2018-05-17 15:45

本文选题：水泥市场 + 市场特征　；参考：《复旦大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：过去的十年是我国水泥产业发展黄金的十年,在我国城市化进程的高速推动以及固定投资驱动下,水泥产业急剧扩张,规模日益扩大,产量世界第一。然而这期间也最终涌现了我国水泥行业的差能过剩以及恶性的价格大战等各种问题。本文通过对过去十年我国水泥产业发展的历史回顾与分析,归纳总结一系列目前我国水泥产业的特点,如周期性、地域性以及协同性等,并依据这些特性,利用霍特林基本模型,对其条件与假设进行一系列的修改与放松,使之贴近水泥市场实际情况,通过模型的演绎来解释一些我国水泥厂家之间的行为博弈,并最终给予一些相关的政策建议。首先,文章引入一个线性的消费者需求分布密度函数。在市场消费者需求并不均匀的情况,模型得到的结果仍然是均有一个收敛性的均衡点,两厂家的产品定价将会逐步收敛到这个均衡组合,但与基本模型不同之处在于,需求大地区的厂商将会具有明显的地理优势,从而使得其定价能力相对其竞争对手较高,从而摄取更多的利润。进一步的,在需求不均匀的情况下,加入厂家差别化定价的假设,此时两厂家的价格策略仍旧会收敛至一个价格组合,需求分布比较密集地区的厂家依然会享有地域优势,从而制定一个更高的价格,获得更大的利润。通过假设消费者偏好函数所得到的消费者需求弹性,能够使得模型更具有一般意义。加入一般意义的需求弹性与基本模型相异的地方在于,此时当两厂家采取协同提价策略而非价格竞争策略时,两厂家的产品定价依旧将会收敛于某一价格组合。正文的最后一部分即是通过研究单位产品的运输费用对于模型均衡状态和价格的影响来阐述一些厂家的实际行为。结果显示保持一方运输费用不变,另一方运输费用提高将会使得两厂家的均衡价格都得到提高；反之亦然,降低任何一方的运输费用将会同时降低双方的产品价格。我国政府能够促进水泥厂家之间的兼并重组,从而淘汰部分落后过剩的产能,同时也能避免水泥产品的恶性价格大战,提升厂家的利润。另一方面,单位运输费用在附加值较低的水泥产品定价中极为重要,运费成本较低的企业在市场博弈中占有极大地优势。厂家还能够增加自身产品差异或者通过向下游产品拓展来避免水泥的定价竞争。
[Abstract]:The past decade has been a golden decade for the development of China's cement industry. Driven by the rapid development of China's urbanization process and fixed investment, the cement industry has expanded rapidly and its scale has expanded day by day, leading the world in output. However, during this period, some problems such as surplus of differential energy and vicious price war have emerged. By reviewing and analyzing the history of the development of cement industry in China in the past ten years, this paper summarizes a series of characteristics of cement industry in China, such as periodicity, regionality and synergy, and according to these characteristics, In this paper, a series of modification and relaxation of the conditions and assumptions are carried out to make it close to the actual situation of the cement market, and the behavior game between some cement manufacturers in our country is explained by deducing the model. And finally give some relevant policy recommendations. Firstly, a linear distribution density function of consumer demand is introduced. When the market demand is not uniform, the result of the model is still a convergent equilibrium point, the pricing of the two manufacturers will gradually converge to this equilibrium combination, but different from the basic model, Firms in large demand regions will have an obvious geographical advantage, making their pricing power higher than those of their competitors, thereby generating more profits. Further, in the case of uneven demand, adding the assumption of differential pricing by manufacturers, the price strategy of the two manufacturers will still converge to a combination of prices, and manufacturers in areas with dense demand distribution will still enjoy regional advantages. So set a higher price, to achieve greater profits. By assuming the elasticity of consumer demand derived from the consumer preference function, the model has more general meaning. The difference between the general elasticity of demand and the basic model is that when the two manufacturers adopt a synergistic price increase strategy rather than a price competition strategy, the pricing of the two manufacturers will still converge to a certain price combination. The last part of the text is to study the effect of unit product transportation cost on the equilibrium state and price of the model to explain the actual behavior of some manufacturers. The results show that the equilibrium price of both manufacturers will be raised by keeping the cost of transportation on one side unchanged, and the price of both parties will be reduced at the same time by reducing the cost of transportation on either side. The government of our country can promote the merger and reorganization among cement manufacturers, so as to eliminate some of the backward excess production capacity, at the same time, it can avoid the vicious price war of cement products and increase the profit of the manufacturers. On the other hand, the unit transportation cost is very important in the pricing of cement products with low added value, and the enterprises with lower freight cost have a great advantage in the market game. Manufacturers can also increase differences in their products or expand downstream to avoid pricing competition for cement.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F426.721

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